RRosternomics
DG

David Gottfried

General manager for the Astros (2011–2011).

1 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Overview

Titles0
Pennants0
Playoffs0
Record56–106
Win %0.346
-2.9GM WAR — wins above a replacement GM (org-adjusted, shrunk; per season) ±7.8149th/195 execs
4.0Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)163rd/195 execs
-7.3Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)176th/195 execs
27%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)34th/195 execs
$12MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track110th/195 execs
$5MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)98th/195 execs
$8MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade52nd/195 execs
$-2MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees188th/195 execs
-11.6TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total120th/195 execs
-21.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)150th/195 execs
0.06Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)181st/195 execs
-20Roster surplus $M78th/195 execs

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
Astros GM 2011–2011 1 -21.6 -21.60 -11.6 -8.2 +26.4 +13.2 +0.3 -0.5 0.06 0.346 -20
Career total (1985+ data) 1 -21.6 -11.6 -8.2 +26.4 +13.2 +0.3 -0.5 0.06 0.346 -20

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+26.4
Trade+13.2
Free agency+0.3
Rule 5 / minor draft-0.5
Sourcing mix: 66% draft · 1% FA · 33% trade · 0% R5

Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across David Gottfried's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.

Players acquired — 28 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr Lev
George Springer OF HOU Draft 2011 7 +25.8 +3.7
Marwin González SS HOU Trade 2011 5 +9.2 +1.8
Brett Oberholtzer P HOU Trade 2011 3 +3.7 +1.2
Carlos Corporán C HOU Trade 2011 4 +3.3 +0.8 0.0
Clint Barmes 2B/SS HOU Trade 2011 1 +2.7 +2.7 0.2
Jed Lowrie 2B/SS HOU Trade 2011 2 +2.4 +1.2 0.0
Lucas Harrell P HOU Trade 2011 2 +1.9 +1.0 0.0
Scott Moore 1B/3B HOU Free agency 2011 1 +0.7 +0.7 0.0
Matt Downs 2B HOU Trade 2011 1 +0.7 +0.7 0.1
Mickey Storey P HOU Trade 2011 1 +0.5 +0.5
Jarred Cosart P HOU Trade 2011 2 +0.4 +0.2
Nick Tropeano P HOU Draft 2011 1 +0.4 +0.4
Henry Sosa P HOU Trade 2011 1 +0.2 +0.2
Xavier Cedeño P HOU Trade 2011 1 +0.1 +0.1
Matt Duffy 1B/3B HOU Draft 2011 1 +0.1 +0.1
Teoscar Hernández OF HOU Intl FA 2011 1 +0.1 +0.1
Juan Abreu P HOU Trade 2011 -0.0
Travis Buck OF HOU Free agency 2011 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Sergio Escalona P HOU Trade 2011 -0.0
José Valdez P HOU Trade 2011 1 -0.0 -0.0
Robinson Cancel C HOU Free agency 2011 -0.2
Ángel Sánchez SS HOU Trade 2011 1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0
Jordan Schafer OF HOU Trade 2011 1 -0.4 -0.4 0.0
Rhiner Cruz P HOU Rule 5 2011 -0.5
Domingo Santana OF HOU Trade 2011 1 -0.5 -0.5
Josh Zeid P HOU Trade 2011 1 -0.6 -0.6
Jon Singleton 1B HOU Trade 2011 1 -1.2 -1.2
Paul Clemens P HOU Trade 2011 -1.5

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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