RRosternomics

Rockies COL

GM: Jeff Bridich

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 5 in this regime · payroll 0.82× league · TAB -13.9
-13.9TAB — talent above budget29th/30
-11.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)27th/30
3.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars27th/30
-8.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag28th/30
45%dead money %21st/30
0.420win %25th/30
18.0roster fWAR29th/30
-44surplus $M (value vs cost)23rd/30
$100Mpayroll $M21st/30

Roster

CFCharlie Blackmon 147GBrandon Barnes 11GCorey Dickerson 3G
LFBrandon Barnes 75GCorey Dickerson 54GKyle Parker 28G
RFCarlos González 151GBrandon Barnes 21GCharlie Blackmon 7G
SSJosé Reyes 116GDaniel Descalso 33GCristhian Adames 13G
2BDJ LeMahieu 149GDaniel Descalso 15GRafael Ynoa 5G
3BNolan Arenado 157GRafael Ynoa 10GDaniel Descalso 5G
1BBen Paulsen 91GWilin Rosario 53GJustin Morneau 44G
STARTERSChad Bettis 1.9WARJorge De La Rosa 1.3WARChris Rusin 1.2WARJon Gray 0.8WARJordan Lyles 0.7WAR
CNick Hundley 102GMichael McKenry 32GDustin Garneau 22G
DHWilin Rosario 6GCorey Dickerson 2GMichael McKenry 1G
BULLPEN John Axford 25svBoone Logan 23hScott Oberg 16hBrooks Brown 10hTommy Kahnle 10hChristian Friedrich 9hRafael Betancourt 8hGonzalez Germen 2h
CNick Hundley 102 · Michael McKenry 32 · Dustin Garneau 22
1BBen Paulsen 91 · Wilin Rosario 53 · Justin Morneau 44
2BDJ LeMahieu 149 · Daniel Descalso 15 · Rafael Ynoa 5
3BNolan Arenado 157 · Rafael Ynoa 10 · Daniel Descalso 5
SSJosé Reyes 116 · Daniel Descalso 33 · Cristhian Adames 13
LFBrandon Barnes 75 · Corey Dickerson 54 · Kyle Parker 28
CFCharlie Blackmon 147 · Brandon Barnes 11 · Corey Dickerson 3
RFCarlos González 151 · Brandon Barnes 21 · Charlie Blackmon 7
DHWilin Rosario 6 · Corey Dickerson 2 · Michael McKenry 1
SPChad Bettis 1.9 · Jorge De La Rosa 1.3 · Chris Rusin 1.2 · Jon Gray 0.8 · Jordan Lyles 0.7
BP John Axford 25 · Boone Logan 23 · Scott Oberg 16 · Brooks Brown 10 · Tommy Kahnle 10 · Christian Friedrich 9 · Rafael Betancourt 8 · Gonzalez Germen 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2015 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Nolan Arenado 24 pre-arb 1574.5 0.5 +13.6
Carlos González 29 FA-elig 1532.8 16.0 -7.1
Charlie Blackmon 28 arb 1572.5 0.5 +7.3
DJ LeMahieu 26 arb 1501.9 0.5 +5.5
Chad Bettis 26 pre-arb 201.9 0.4 +5.6
Jorge De La Rosa 34 FA-elig 261.3 12.5 -8.5
Nick Hundley 31 FA-elig 1031.2 3.1 +0.8
Troy Tulowitzki↔ TOR 30 FA-elig 871.2 13.6 -9.8
Chris Rusin 28 pre-arb 271.2 0.4 +3.4
Ben Paulsen 27 pre-arb 1160.9 0.4 +2.4
Jon Gray 23 90.8 0.2 +2.3
John Axford 32 FA-elig 600.8 2.6 -0.2
Justin Miller 28 340.7 0.2 +2.1
Jordan Lyles 24 arb 110.7 2.5 -0.4
Corey Dickerson 26 pre-arb 650.6 0.5 +1.5
Rafael Betancourt 40 FA-elig 450.6 1.0 +0.8
Justin Morneau 34 FA-elig 490.5 6.8 -5.2
Adam Ottavino 29 arb 100.4 1.3 +0.1
Christian Bergman 27 pre-arb 300.4 0.5 +0.8
Boone Logan 30 FA-elig 600.3 5.5 -4.5
Jairo Díaz 24 pre-arb 210.2 0.1 +0.6
Christian Friedrich 27 arb 680.2 0.5 +0.1
David Hale 27 pre-arb 170.2 0.2 +0.3
LaTroy Hawkins↔ TOR 42 FA-elig 240.2 1.3 -0.8
Ken Roberts↔ PHI 27 90.1 0.1 +0.3
Simon Castro 27 pre-arb 110.1 0.1 +0.2
Drew Stubbs↔ TEX 30 FA-elig 510.1 3.8 -3.5
Michael McKenry 30 arb 580.1 1.1 -0.8
Brooks Brown 30 pre-arb 360.1 0.5 -0.2
Tyler Matzek 24 pre-arb 60.0 0.5 -0.4
Jason Gurka 27 100.0 0.1 +0.0
Tom Murphy 24 110.0
Rex Brothers 27 arb 170.0 1.4 -1.4
Tommy Kahnle 25 pre-arb 36-0.0 0.2 -0.3
Jorge Rondon↔ BAL 27 2-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Aaron Laffey 30 arb 3-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Miguel Castro↔ TOR 20 5-0.1 0.0 -0.5
Cristhian Adames 23 pre-arb 26-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Gonzalez Germen↔ CHC 27 pre-arb 29-0.2 0.2 -0.8
José Reyes↔ TOR 32 FA-elig 47-0.3 8.9 -9.8
Yohan Flande 29 pre-arb 19-0.4 0.3 -1.7
Matt McBride 30 20-0.5 0.1 -1.6
Rafael Ynoa 27 pre-arb 72-0.6 0.3 -2.1
Kyle Kendrick 30 FA-elig 27-0.6 5.5 -7.3
Brandon Barnes 29 pre-arb 106-0.6 0.4 -2.3
Eddie Butler 24 pre-arb 16-0.6 0.5 -2.4
Scott Oberg 25 64-0.8 0.4 -3.0
Kyle Parker 25 pre-arb 46-0.8 0.0 -2.6
Wilin Rosario 26 arb 87-0.9 2.8 -5.5
Daniel Descalso 28 arb 101-0.9 1.5 -4.5
Dustin Garneau 27 22-1.0 0.1 -3.2

Key additions (new vs 2014)

PlayerfWAR
Nick Hundley1.2
Chris Rusin1.2
Jon Gray0.8
John Axford0.8
Justin Miller0.7
Rafael Betancourt0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2014)

Player2014 fWAR
Michael Cuddyer1.6
Matt Belisle0.4
Chris Martin0.1
Pedro Hernandez0.0
Nick Masset0.0
Jackson Williams-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2015 payroll
$100.1M
2016 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2015, 2015–2021. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2015; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Carlos González296.059$16.0MFREE AGENT
Troy Tulowitzki308.033$13.6MFREE AGENT
Jorge De La Rosa3411.000$12.5MFREE AGENT
José Reyes3211.111$8.9MFREE AGENT
Justin Morneau3410.168$6.8MFREE AGENT
Boone Logan307.140$5.5MFREE AGENT
Kyle Kendrick306.159$5.5MFREE AGENT
Nick Hundley316.059$3.1MFREE AGENT
LaTroy Hawkins4218.054$1.3MFREE AGENT
Rafael Betancourt4012.000$1.0MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Drew Stubbs305.047$3.8MFREE AGENT
Wilin Rosario263.023$2.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Axford324.170$2.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Lyles243.060$2.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Descalso284.016$1.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Rex Brothers273.117$1.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Ottavino293.087$1.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael McKenry303.097$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Laffey304.101$19kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (32)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
DJ LeMahieu262.128$518kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Charlie Blackmon282.102$518kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nolan Arenado241.155$512kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christian Friedrich271.075$512kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corey Dickerson261.101$512kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brooks Brown301.000$509kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eddie Butler240.057$509kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Matzek240.110$509kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christian Bergman270.112$490kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Oberg250.000$419kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Bettis260.124$397kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Paulsen270.045$385kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Barnes292.058$383kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Rusin280.131$369kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rafael Ynoa270.147$326kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yohan Flande291.008$305kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Kahnle251.000$244kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Miller280.000$238kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Hale271.025$221kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gonzalez Germen271.135$172kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Gray230.000$169kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dustin Garneau270.000$128kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jairo Díaz240.021$116kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Simon Castro270.063$116kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Gurka270.000$103kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cristhian Adames230.016$94kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ken Roberts270.078$83kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt McBride30$61k
Miguel Castro200.000$25kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Rondon270.061$22kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Parker250.038$6kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Murphy240.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Rockies 2015; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3