ANA⇄CLE

ANAANA Bill Stoneman net −$0.8M net +0.4

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $6M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 0.6 ± 1 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2015 odds 6% → 6% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

David MurphyOF·33y·L/L

+$0.8M+$0.8M± $6M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 0.6± 1 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.25/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

0.59/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE Mark Shapiro net +$0.8M net -0.4

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $19M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · -0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2015 odds 41% → 42% (+1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Eric StametsSS·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

#207 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.