RRosternomics
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Reds CIN

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President of baseball ops: Nick Krall

Overview

WINDOW ↘ cooling
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.72× league · TAB +2.3
+2.3TAB — talent above budget17th/30
+5.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)12th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars13th/30
-5.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag18th/30
41%dead money %24th/30
0.512win %13th/30
32.5roster fWAR15th/30
+17surplus $M (value vs cost)8th/30
$111Mpayroll $M21st/30

2025: made playoffs · 83–79. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFTJ Friedl 149GWill Benson 12GBlake Dunn 5G
LFAustin Hays 61GGavin Lux 54GWill Benson 33G
RFNoelvi Marte 54GWill Benson 40GConnor Joe 16G
SSElly De La Cruz 158GMatt McLain 6GSantiago Espinal 2G
2BMatt McLain 138GSantiago Espinal 19GGavin Lux 17G
3BKe'Bryan Hayes 152GSantiago Espinal 75GNoelvi Marte 38G
1BSpencer Steer 122GChristian Encarnacion-Strand 27GSal Stewart 11G
STARTERSAndrew Abbott 3.9WARHunter Greene 2.9WARBrady Singer 2.9WARNick Lodolo 2.8WARNick Martinez 2.1WAR
CJose Trevino 90GTyler Stephenson 69GWill Banfield 7G
DHGavin Lux 59GAustin Hays 40GMiguel Andujar 27G
BULLPEN★ Emilio Pagán 32svTony Santillan 33hGraham Ashcraft 23hScott Barlow 16hLuis Mey 4hLyon Richardson 3hIan Gibaut 3hBrent Suter 0h
CJose Trevino 90 · Tyler Stephenson 69 · Will Banfield 7
1BSpencer Steer 122 · Christian Encarnacion-Strand 27 · Sal Stewart 11
2BMatt McLain 138 · Santiago Espinal 19 · Gavin Lux 17
3BKe'Bryan Hayes 152 · Santiago Espinal 75 · Noelvi Marte 38
SSElly De La Cruz 158 · Matt McLain 6 · Santiago Espinal 2
LFAustin Hays 61 · Gavin Lux 54 · Will Benson 33
CFTJ Friedl 149 · Will Benson 12 · Blake Dunn 5
RFNoelvi Marte 54 · Will Benson 40 · Connor Joe 16
DHGavin Lux 59 · Austin Hays 40 · Miguel Andujar 27
SPAndrew Abbott 3.9 · Hunter Greene 2.9 · Brady Singer 2.9 · Nick Lodolo 2.8 · Nick Martinez 2.1
BP★ Emilio Pagán 32 · Tony Santillan 33 · Graham Ashcraft 23 · Scott Barlow 16 · Luis Mey 4 · Lyon Richardson 3 · Ian Gibaut 3 · Brent Suter 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2025 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Elly De La Cruz 23 – 1624.3 0.8 +16.4
Andrew Abbott 26 pre-arb 293.9 0.8 +14.8
Hunter Greene 25 arb 192.9 6.3 +5.2
TJ Friedl 29 pre-arb 1522.9 0.8 +10.6
Brady Singer 28 arb 322.9 8.8 +2.7
Nick Lodolo 27 arb 292.8 2.0 +9.1
Nick Martinez 34 FA-elig 402.1 21.1 -12.8
Graham Ashcraft 27 pre-arb 621.6 0.8 +5.6
Matt McLain 25 pre-arb 1471.4 0.8 +4.8
Chase Burns 22 – 131.4 0.4 +5.0
Austin Hays 29 arb 1031.2 4.1 +0.8
Tyler Stephenson 28 arb 881.1 4.9 -0.4
Tony Santillan 28 pre-arb 801.1 1.0 +3.2
Emilio Pagán 34 FA-elig 701.0 8.2 -4.1
Noelvi Marte 23 pre-arb 901.0 0.8 +3.1
Spencer Steer 27 pre-arb 1461.0 0.8 +3.0
Austin Wynns↔ OAK 34 – 180.7 0.3 +2.7
Miguel Andujar↔ OAK 30 arb 340.7 0.7 +1.9
Ke'Bryan Hayes↔ PIT 28 arb 520.6 1.6 +0.8
Zack Littell↔ TBR 29 arb 100.6 1.2 +1.1
Sal Stewart 21 – 180.4 0.1 +1.6
Jake Fraley↔ ATL 30 – 670.3 2.2 -0.8
Jose Trevino 32 arb 940.3 3.4 -2.1
Gavin Lux 27 arb 1400.3 3.3 -2.2
Taylor Rogers↔ CHC 34 – 400.2 4.2 -3.3
Connor Phillips 24 pre-arb 210.2 0.3 +0.4
Lyon Richardson 25 pre-arb 340.1 0.5 +0.0
Ian Gibaut 31 arb 250.1 1.3 -0.8
Scott Barlow 32 FA-elig 750.1 2.5 -2.1
Brent Suter 35 FA-elig 480.1 2.5 -2.1
Blake Dunn 26 pre-arb 300.1 0.2 +0.1
Reiver Sanmartin 29 pre-arb 10.0 0.0 +0.1
Will Benson 27 pre-arb 900.0 0.5 -0.5
Ryan Vilade↔ STL 26 pre-arb 10.0 0.0 +0.0
Carson Spiers 27 pre-arb 3-0.0 0.7 -0.7
Randy Wynne 32 – 1-0.0 0.2 -0.3
Yosver Zulueta 27 pre-arb 7-0.0 0.2 -0.3
Sam Moll 33 arb 23-0.1 0.7 -1.0
Jacob Hurtubise 27 – 12-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Zach Maxwell 24 – 8-0.1 0.2 -0.5
Tyler Callihan 25 – 4-0.1 0.6 -1.1
Wade Miley 38 FA-elig 3-0.1 1.8 -2.3
Garrett Hampson↔ ARI 30 – 9-0.1 0.2 -0.7
Luis Mey 24 – 23-0.2 0.2 -0.9
Will Banfield 25 – 7-0.2 0.2 -0.9
Chase Petty 22 – 3-0.3 0.1 -1.2
Santiago Espinal 30 arb 114-0.3 2.4 -3.7
Joe La Sorsa 27 – 5-0.4 0.1 -1.6
Rece Hinds 24 pre-arb 15-0.5 0.1 -2.2
Alexis Díaz↔ ATL 28 – 6-0.5 0.9 -3.0
Connor Joe↔ SDP 32 arb 35-0.6 0.4 -2.9
Christian Encarnacion-Strand 25 pre-arb 36-0.6 0.4 -2.9
Jeimer Candelario 31 – 22-0.7 15.0 -17.7

Key additions (new vs 2024)

PlayerfWAR
Brady Singer2.9
Matt McLain1.4
Chase Burns1.4
Austin Hays1.2
Miguel Andujar0.7
Ke'Bryan Hayes0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2024)

Player2024 fWAR
Jonathan India2.9
Fernando Cruz1.2
Jakob Junis0.8
Frankie Montas0.8
Buck Farmer0.5
Stuart Fairchild0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2025 payroll
$111.4M
2026 guaranteed
$15.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 2025, 2025–2031. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2025; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Nick Martinez346.002$21.1MFREE AGENT
Jeimer Candelario317.038$15.0MFREE AGENT
Emilio Pagán347.091$8.2MPLAYERFREE AGENT
Hunter Greene253.000$6.3M$8.3M$15.3M$16.3M$21.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Taylor Rogers348.145$4.2MFREE AGENT
Scott Barlow326.026$2.5MFREE AGENT
Brent Suter357.161$2.5MFREE AGENT
Wade Miley3813.025$1.8MFREE AGENT
Ke'Bryan Hayes284.075$1.6M$7.0M$7.0M$8.0M$8.0M$12.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Garrett Hampson306.030$151kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Brady Singer284.156$8.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Stephenson284.056$4.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Hays295.057$4.1MFREE AGENT
Jose Trevino325.063$3.4MFREE AGENT
Gavin Lux274.114$3.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Santiago Espinal304.149$2.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Fraley304.097$2.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Lodolo273.000$2.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Gibaut313.077$1.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Littell295.043$1.2MFREE AGENT
Alexis Díaz283.000$895kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Andujar305.053$741kFREE AGENT
Sam Moll333.075$650kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Connor Joe323.136$421kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Wynns344.017$301kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (28)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Tony Santillan282.099$1.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Graham Ashcraft272.130$780kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
TJ Friedl292.112$780kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Spencer Steer272.035$780kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Noelvi Marte230.139$774kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Elly De La Cruz232.000$770kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt McLain251.140$770kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Abbott261.119$770kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carson Spiers270.157$724kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Callihan250.000$621kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Benson272.042$543kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lyon Richardson250.037$462kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christian Encarnacion-Strand251.077$443kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chase Burns220.000$396kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Connor Phillips240.027$309kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Mey240.000$233kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Wynne32–$201k
Blake Dunn260.045$180kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Banfield25–$163k
Yosver Zulueta270.032$159kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Maxwell240.000$155kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rece Hinds240.053$147kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Hurtubise270.040$127kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sal Stewart210.000$114kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe La Sorsa27–$84k
Chase Petty220.000$57kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Vilade260.051$13kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Reiver Sanmartin291.147$4kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Reds 2025; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.