LAD⇄CIN

LADLAD Andrew Friedman net −$2.4M net +0.0

received +$16.8M+$16.8M ± $23M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.9 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Alexis DíazP·28y·R/R

+$17.1M+$17.1M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.9± 3 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.62/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Nick Krall net +$2.4M net +0.0

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Mike VillaniP·22y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#400 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.