PHI⇄CIN

PHIPHI Dave Dombrowski net +$0.0M net +0.0

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.3 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Tyler GilbertP·30y·L/L

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.3± 1 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#174 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

0.20/yr blended

Horizon

4.4 control yrs × 0.30 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Nick Krall net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.