LAD⇄CIN

LADLAD Ned Colletti net −$3.2M net +0.0

received +$7.2M+$7.2M ± $16M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 1.5 ± 2 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2015 odds 85% → 85% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chris HeiseyOF·30y·R/R

+$7.0M+$7.0M± $16M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 1.5± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

0.81/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Walt Jocketty net +$3.2M net +0.0

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $32M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.0 ± 4 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2015 odds 4% → 4% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt MagillP·25y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $32M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#937 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -3.9/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

-0.19/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.