RRosternomics
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Reds CIN

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GM: Walt Jocketty

Overview

WINDOW ↘ cooling
cheap & winning · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.77× league · TAB +11.0
+11.0TAB — talent above budget2nd/30
+18.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)2nd/30
12.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars1st/30
-5.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag14th/30
13%dead money %1st/30
0.599win %2nd/30
42.1roster fWAR9th/30
+33surplus $M (value vs cost)3rd/30
$77Mpayroll $M21st/30

2012: made playoffs · 97–65. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFDrew Stubbs 135GChris Heisey 36GWilson Valdez 5G
LFRyan Ludwick 108GChris Heisey 63GXavier Paul 17G
RFJay Bruce 154GChris Heisey 13GXavier Paul 1G
SSZack Cozart 138GWilson Valdez 33GDidi Gregorius 6G
2BBrandon Phillips 146GWilson Valdez 22GMiguel Cairo 8G
3BScott Rolen 87GTodd Frazier 73GWilson Valdez 14G
1BJoey Votto 109GTodd Frazier 39GMiguel Cairo 24G
STARTERSJohnny Cueto 3.8WARMat Latos 3.1WARBronson Arroyo 2.3WARHomer Bailey 2.2WARMike Leake 2.2WAR
CRyan Hanigan 110GDevin Mesoraco 53GDioner Navarro 21G
DHRyan Ludwick 2GMiguel Cairo 1GMike Costanzo 1G
BULLPEN★ Aroldis Chapman 38svSean Marshall 22hLogan Ondrusek 13hJose Arredondo 12hJonathan Broxton 10hSam LeCure 7hAlfredo Simon 1hJ.J. Hoover 1h
CRyan Hanigan 110 · Devin Mesoraco 53 · Dioner Navarro 21
1BJoey Votto 109 · Todd Frazier 39 · Miguel Cairo 24
2BBrandon Phillips 146 · Wilson Valdez 22 · Miguel Cairo 8
3BScott Rolen 87 · Todd Frazier 73 · Wilson Valdez 14
SSZack Cozart 138 · Wilson Valdez 33 · Didi Gregorius 6
LFRyan Ludwick 108 · Chris Heisey 63 · Xavier Paul 17
CFDrew Stubbs 135 · Chris Heisey 36 · Wilson Valdez 5
RFJay Bruce 154 · Chris Heisey 13 · Xavier Paul 1
DHRyan Ludwick 2 · Miguel Cairo 1 · Mike Costanzo 1
SPJohnny Cueto 3.8 · Mat Latos 3.1 · Bronson Arroyo 2.3 · Homer Bailey 2.2 · Mike Leake 2.2
BP★ Aroldis Chapman 38 · Sean Marshall 22 · Logan Ondrusek 13 · Jose Arredondo 12 · Jonathan Broxton 10 · Sam LeCure 7 · Alfredo Simon 1 · J.J. Hoover 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2012 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Joey Votto 28 arb 1115.3 9.5 +4.3
Johnny Cueto 26 arb 333.8 5.4 +4.5
Ryan Hanigan 31 arb 1123.7 1.2 +8.2
Brandon Phillips 31 FA-elig 1473.3 12.0 -3.5
Aroldis Chapman 24 pre-arb 683.2 2.0 +6.2
Mat Latos 24 arb 333.1 0.6 +7.6
Ryan Ludwick 33 FA-elig 1252.6 2.0 +4.8
Todd Frazier 26 pre-arb 1282.5 0.5 +5.9
Jay Bruce 25 arb 1552.4 5.0 +1.2
Bronson Arroyo 35 FA-elig 322.3 12.0 -6.2
Homer Bailey 26 arb 342.2 2.4 +3.3
Mike Leake 24 pre-arb 352.2 0.5 +5.1
Zack Cozart 26 pre-arb 1381.9 0.5 +4.4
Sean Marshall 29 FA-elig 731.6 3.1 +1.0
Drew Stubbs 27 arb 1361.3 0.5 +2.8
Sam LeCure 28 pre-arb 481.0 0.5 +2.0
Chris Heisey 27 pre-arb 1200.8 0.5 +1.6
Scott Rolen 37 FA-elig 920.8 6.5 -4.5
Jonathan Broxton↔ KCR 28 FA-elig 250.6 1.7 -0.0
Alfredo Simon 31 arb 360.5 0.5 +0.8
Xavier Paul 27 pre-arb 550.5 0.4 +0.9
J.J. Hoover 24 – 280.5 0.5 +0.8
Dioner Navarro 28 FA-elig 240.5 0.8 +0.4
Devin Mesoraco 24 pre-arb 540.3 0.5 +0.2
Didi Gregorius 22 – 80.1 0.5 -0.3
Denis Phipps 26 pre-arb 80.1 0.5 -0.3
Kristopher Negrón 26 – 40.0 – –
Tony Cingrani 22 – 30.0 0.5 -0.4
Pedro Villarreal 24 pre-arb 10.0 0.5 -0.4
Jose Arredondo 28 arb 66-0.1 0.8 -1.0
Henry Alejandro Rodriguez 22 – 12-0.1 – –
Todd Redmond 27 – 1-0.1 0.5 -0.9
Mike Costanzo 28 – 17-0.4 – –
Willie Harris 34 FA-elig 25-0.5 0.8 -2.1
Bill Bray 29 FA-elig 14-0.7 1.4 -3.1
Logan Ondrusek 27 pre-arb 63-0.8 0.5 -2.6
Miguel Cairo 38 FA-elig 70-1.1 1.0 -3.8
Wilson Valdez 34 FA-elig 77-1.2 0.9 -4.1

Key additions (new vs 2011)

PlayerfWAR
Mat Latos3.1
Ryan Ludwick2.6
Sean Marshall1.6
Jonathan Broxton0.6
Alfredo Simon0.5
Xavier Paul0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2011)

Player2011 fWAR
Dontrelle Willis1.7
Ramon Hernandez0.9
Travis Wood0.9
Jonny Gomes0.9
Edgar Renteria0.7
Yonder Alonso0.5

Current & Historical Payroll

2012 payroll
$76.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 2012, 2012–2018. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Bronson Arroyo359.150$12.0M$16.4MFREE AGENT$535k
Brandon Phillips317.022$12.0M$10.0M$11.0M$12.0M$13.0MFREE AGENT
Scott Rolen3715.060$6.5MFREE AGENT
Ryan Ludwick336.109$2.0M$2.0M$8.5MFREE AGENT
Jonathan Broxton286.020$1.7M$4.0M$5.8MFREE AGENT
Miguel Cairo3813.110$1.0MFREE AGENT
Dioner Navarro286.027$800kFREE AGENT
Willie Harris348.140$800kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Joey Votto284.027$9.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Johnny Cueto264.000$5.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jay Bruce253.125$5.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Marshall295.088$3.1MFREE AGENT
Homer Bailey263.017$2.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bill Bray295.018$1.4MFREE AGENT
Ryan Hanigan313.077$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilson Valdez343.096$930kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Todd Redmond273.005$480kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (21)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Aroldis Chapman241.034$2.0MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Arredondo282.168$800kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mat Latos242.079$550kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Stubbs272.047$528kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Leake242.000$507kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Heisey271.157$495kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Ondrusek271.144$492kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam LeCure281.072$488kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alfredo Simon312.142$487kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Cozart260.084$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.J. Hoover240.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Todd Frazier260.071$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Denis Phipps260.033$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Devin Mesoraco240.028$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Didi Gregorius220.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Villarreal241.034$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Cingrani220.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Xavier Paul272.119$414kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Costanzo28–—
Kristopher Negrón260.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Henry Alejandro Rodriguez22–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Reds 2012; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.