RRosternomics
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Reds CIN

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GM: Jim Bowden

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.34× league · TAB -10.8
-10.8TAB — talent above budget23rd/28
-12.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)25th/28
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars16th/28
-9.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag26th/28
25%dead money %7th/28
0.451win %20th/28
27.0roster fWAR19th/28
-21surplus $M (value vs cost)28th/28
$42Mpayroll $M4th/28

Roster

CFRoberto Kelly 77GJacob Brumfield 68GThomas Howard 23G
LFKevin Mitchell 85GThomas Howard 36GJacob Brumfield 24G
RFReggie Sanders 135GTim Costo 16GGary Varsho 9G
SSBarry Larkin 99GJeff Branson 59GKeith Kessinger 11G
2BJuan Samuel 70GBip Roberts 64GJeff Branson 45G
3BChris Sabo 148GJeff Branson 14GWillie Greene 5G
1BHal Morris 98GJoe Oliver 12GJuan Samuel 6G
STARTERSJose Rijo 8.0WARTom Browning 1.5WARTim Pugh 1.5WARJohn Smiley 1.0WARLarry Luebbers 0.7WAR
CJoe Oliver 133GDan Wilson 35GBrian Dorsett 18G
BULLPEN★ Rob Dibble 19svJeff Reardon 0hKevin Wickander 0hJerry Spradlin 0hScott Service 0hJohnny Ruffin 0hMilt Hill 0hBill Landrum 0h
CJoe Oliver 133 · Dan Wilson 35 · Brian Dorsett 18
1BHal Morris 98 · Joe Oliver 12 · Juan Samuel 6
2BJuan Samuel 70 · Bip Roberts 64 · Jeff Branson 45
3BChris Sabo 148 · Jeff Branson 14 · Willie Greene 5
SSBarry Larkin 99 · Jeff Branson 59 · Keith Kessinger 11
LFKevin Mitchell 85 · Thomas Howard 36 · Jacob Brumfield 24
CFRoberto Kelly 77 · Jacob Brumfield 68 · Thomas Howard 23
RFReggie Sanders 135 · Tim Costo 16 · Gary Varsho 9
SPJose Rijo 8.0 · Tom Browning 1.5 · Tim Pugh 1.5 · John Smiley 1.0 · Larry Luebbers 0.7
BP★ Rob Dibble 19 · Jeff Reardon 0 · Kevin Wickander 0 · Jerry Spradlin 0 · Scott Service 0 · Johnny Ruffin 0 · Milt Hill 0 · Bill Landrum 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1993 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jose Rijo 28 FA-elig 368.0 4.1 +2.5
Barry Larkin 29 FA-elig 1003.5 5.8 -2.9
Kevin Mitchell 31 FA-elig 932.9 3.8 -1.4
Reggie Sanders 25 pre-arb 1382.5 0.3 +1.8
Tim Belcher↔ CHW 31 FA-elig 222.5 2.5 -0.4
Roberto Kelly 28 FA-elig 782.2 3.1 -1.3
Tim Pugh 26 pre-arb 311.5 0.1 +1.1
Tom Browning 33 FA-elig 211.5 2.2 -1.0
Chris Sabo 31 arb 1481.4 3.1 -2.0
Hal Morris 28 arb 1011.3 1.3 -0.2
Joe Oliver 27 arb 1391.2 1.2 -0.2
Randy Milligan↔ CLE 31 FA-elig 831.2 0.5 +0.5
John Smiley 28 FA-elig 181.0 3.5 -2.6
Jeff Reardon 37 FA-elig 580.8 0.5 +0.1
Larry Luebbers 23 – 140.7 – –
Thomas Howard↔ CLE 28 arb 380.5 0.1 +0.3
John Roper 21 – 160.5 – –
Steve Foster 26 pre-arb 170.4 0.1 +0.2
Bill Landrum 35 – 180.4 – –
Jerry Spradlin 26 – 370.3 – –
Ross Powell 25 pre-arb 90.3 0.1 +0.2
Jacob Brumfield 28 pre-arb 1030.3 0.1 +0.2
Scott Service↔ COL 26 arb 270.3 0.1 +0.1
Johnny Ruffin 21 pre-arb 210.3 0.1 +0.1
Brian Dorsett 32 – 250.2 – –
Cecil Espy 30 FA-elig 400.1 0.4 -0.3
Keith Kessinger 26 – 110.1 – –
Jeff Kaiser↔ NYM 32 – 30.0 – –
Dwayne Henry↔ SEA 31 FA-elig 3-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Keith Gordon 24 – 3-0.1 – –
Chris Bushing 25 – 6-0.1 – –
Milt Hill 27 – 19-0.1 – –
Keith Hughes 29 – 3-0.1 – –
Willie Greene 21 – 15-0.1 – –
Greg Tubbs 30 – 35-0.2 – –
Tommy Gregg 29 FA-elig 10-0.2 0.4 -0.5
Bip Roberts 29 FA-elig 83-0.2 3.9 -4.0
Mike Anderson 26 – 3-0.2 – –
Greg Cadaret↔ KCR 31 FA-elig 34-0.2 0.9 -1.1
Jack Daugherty↔ HOU 32 – 46-0.3 – –
Scott Ruskin 30 – 4-0.3 – –
Brian Koelling 24 – 7-0.3 – –
Gary Varsho 32 arb 77-0.4 0.4 -0.7
Cesar Hernandez 26 pre-arb 27-0.4 0.1 -0.4
Tim Costo 24 pre-arb 31-0.4 0.1 -0.4
Kevin Wickander↔ CLE 28 arb 33-0.6 0.1 -0.6
Dan Wilson 24 pre-arb 36-0.7 0.1 -0.7
Bobby Ayala 23 pre-arb 43-0.7 0.1 -0.7
Rob Dibble 29 arb 45-1.1 2.5 -3.4
Juan Samuel 32 FA-elig 103-1.1 0.7 -1.6
Jeff Branson 26 pre-arb 125-1.5 0.2 -1.4

Key additions (new vs 1992)

PlayerfWAR
Kevin Mitchell2.9
Roberto Kelly2.2
Randy Milligan1.2
John Smiley1.0
Jeff Reardon0.8
Larry Luebbers0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 1992)

Player1992 fWAR
Greg Swindell4.4
Paul O'Neill1.8
Norm Charlton1.5
Chris Hammond1.4
Dave Martinez0.9
Darnell Coles0.7

Current & Historical Payroll

1993 payroll
$42.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 1993, 1993–1999. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (20)

PlayerAgeSvc1993199419951996199719981999
Barry Larkin297.000$5.8M$4.4M$5.9M$5.7M$5.3M$5.3M$5.3M
Jose Rijo289.000$4.1M$4.0M$5.8MFREE AGENT
Bip Roberts297.000$3.9MFREE AGENT
Kevin Mitchell319.000$3.8M$3.8MFREE AGENT$656k
John Smiley287.000$3.5M$5.0M$5.0M$5.0M$2.9MFREE AGENT
Roberto Kelly286.000$3.1M$1.8MFREE AGENT
Tim Belcher316.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Tom Browning339.000$2.2M$3.8MFREE AGENT
Greg Cadaret316.000$861kFREE AGENT
Juan Samuel3210.000$700kFREE AGENT
Randy Milligan316.000$517kFREE AGENT
Jeff Reardon3714.000$500kFREE AGENT
Cecil Espy3010.000$400kFREE AGENT
Tommy Gregg296.000$375kFREE AGENT
Dwayne Henry319.000$40kFREE AGENT
Jack Daugherty326.000—FREE AGENT
Brian Dorsett326.000—$170kFREE AGENT
Keith Hughes296.000—FREE AGENT
Jeff Kaiser328.000—FREE AGENT
Bill Landrum357.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc1993199419951996199719981999
Chris Sabo315.000$3.1MFREE AGENT
Rob Dibble295.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Hal Morris285.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Joe Oliver274.000$1.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Gary Varsho325.000$400kFREE AGENT
Thomas Howard283.000$110kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Wickander284.000$109kARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Service265.000$106kFREE AGENT
Scott Ruskin303.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (22)

PlayerAgeSvc1993199419951996199719981999
Reggie Sanders252.000$275kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Branson261.000$158kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Foster262.000$135kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cesar Hernandez261.000$120kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Brumfield281.000$118kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Pugh261.000$115kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bobby Ayala231.000$112kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Costo241.000$109kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Johnny Ruffin210.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ross Powell250.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Wilson241.000$109kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Anderson26–—
Chris Bushing25–—
Keith Gordon24–—
Willie Greene211.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Milt Hill272.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keith Kessinger26–—
Brian Koelling24–—
Larry Luebbers230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Roper21–—
Jerry Spradlin260.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg Tubbs30–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Reds 1993; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.