CIN⇄CHC

CINCIN Jim Bowden net −$0.8M net +0.9

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $14M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.6 ± 2 expected · 0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 1994 odds 82% → 87% (+5.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chuck McElroyP·26y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.6± 2 exp WARrealized 0.9

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

0.31/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Larry Himes net +$0.8M net -0.9

received +$8.8M+$8.8M ± $71M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 4.5 ± 9 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 1994 odds 5% → 3% (-1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Larry LuebbersP·24y·R/R

+$11.8M+$11.8M± $60M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 3.3± 8 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#210 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.59/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Darron CoxC·26y·R/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.1± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#543 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Mike AndersonP·27y·R/R

−$3.9M−$3.9M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.1± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.2/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.02/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.73 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.