RRosternomics
𝕏

Reds CIN

‹ ›

GM: Bill Bergesch

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.03× league · TAB -1.8
-1.8TAB — talent above budget15th/26
+3.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)10th/26
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars16th/26
-3.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag9th/26
38%dead money %17th/26
0.531win %9th/26
32.8roster fWAR11th/26
-1surplus $M (value vs cost)17th/26
$12Mpayroll $M12th/26

Roster

CFEddie Milner 127GEric Davis 71GMax Venable 8G
LFEric Davis 72GMax Venable 49GKal Daniels 47G
RFDave Parker 159GEric Davis 16GMax Venable 3G
SSKurt Stillwell 80GDave Concepcion 60GBarry Larkin 36G
2BRon Oester 151GDave Concepcion 10GTom Runnells 4G
3BBuddy Bell 151GDave Concepcion 10GWade Rowdon 7G
1BNick Esasky 71GPete Rose 61GTony Perez 55G
STARTERSTom Browning 3.1WARJohn Denny 2.9WARBill Gullickson 2.7WARChris Welsh 1.7WARTed Power 1.1WAR
CBo Diaz 134GSal Butera 53GDave Vangorder 7G
BULLPEN★ John Franco 29svRon Robinson 0hRob Murphy 0hCarl Willis 0hScott Terry 0hJoe Price 0hBill Landrum 0hMike Smith 0h
CBo Diaz 134 · Sal Butera 53 · Dave Vangorder 7
1BNick Esasky 71 · Pete Rose 61 · Tony Perez 55
2BRon Oester 151 · Dave Concepcion 10 · Tom Runnells 4
3BBuddy Bell 151 · Dave Concepcion 10 · Wade Rowdon 7
SSKurt Stillwell 80 · Dave Concepcion 60 · Barry Larkin 36
LFEric Davis 72 · Max Venable 49 · Kal Daniels 47
CFEddie Milner 127 · Eric Davis 71 · Max Venable 8
RFDave Parker 159 · Eric Davis 16 · Max Venable 3
SPTom Browning 3.1 · John Denny 2.9 · Bill Gullickson 2.7 · Chris Welsh 1.7 · Ted Power 1.1
BP★ John Franco 29 · Ron Robinson 0 · Rob Murphy 0 · Carl Willis 0 · Scott Terry 0 · Joe Price 0 · Bill Landrum 0 · Mike Smith 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1986 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Eric Davis 24 pre-arb 1324.7 0.1 +1.3
Buddy Bell 34 FA-elig 1553.4 0.9 +0.1
Tom Browning 26 pre-arb 463.1 0.2 +0.7
John Denny 33 FA-elig 272.9 1.1 -0.2
Bill Gullickson 27 FA-elig 372.7 0.5 +0.2
Bo Diaz 33 FA-elig 1342.6 0.8 -0.0
Kal Daniels 22 pre-arb 742.0 0.1 +0.5
Chris Welsh 31 arb 241.7 0.1 +0.4
Ron Robinson 24 pre-arb 701.6 0.1 +0.4
Eddie Milner 31 FA-elig 1451.5 0.3 +0.1
Ron Oester 30 FA-elig 1531.5 0.7 -0.2
John Franco 25 pre-arb 741.3 0.2 +0.2
Ted Power 31 arb 561.1 0.5 -0.2
Barry Larkin 22 pre-arb 411.1 0.1 +0.3
Tracy Jones 25 pre-arb 461.0 0.1 +0.2
Nick Esasky 26 arb 1020.9 0.3 +0.0
Rob Murphy 26 pre-arb 340.8 0.1 +0.2
Dave Parker 35 FA-elig 1620.7 1.1 -0.9
Sal Butera 33 FA-elig 560.5 0.1 +0.1
Dave Concepcion 38 FA-elig 900.5 0.9 -0.8
Mario Soto 29 FA-elig 200.2 1.1 -1.1
Bill Landrum 28 pre-arb 100.2 0.1 +0.0
Mike Smith 25 – 20.1 – –
Paul O'Neill 23 – 3-0.0 – –
Tony Perez 44 FA-elig 77-0.1 0.3 -0.3
Max Venable 29 FA-elig 108-0.1 0.2 -0.3
Joe Price 29 FA-elig 25-0.1 0.4 -0.5
Tom Runnells 31 – 12-0.1 – –
Dave Vangorder 29 arb 9-0.2 0.1 -0.2
Carl Willis 25 pre-arb 29-0.3 0.1 -0.2
Wade Rowdon 25 – 38-0.4 – –
Scott Terry 26 – 30-0.4 – –
Kurt Stillwell 21 pre-arb 104-0.7 0.1 -0.3
Pete Rose 45 FA-elig 72-0.8 1.0 -1.2

Key additions (new vs 1985)

PlayerfWAR
John Denny2.9
Bill Gullickson2.7
Kal Daniels2.0
Chris Welsh1.7
Barry Larkin1.1
Tracy Jones1.0

Key subtractions (gone from 1985)

Player1985 fWAR
Andy McGaffigan2.4
Jay Tibbs2.2
Gary Redus2.0
Wayne Krenchicki1.1
Frank Pastore0.9
John Stuper0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

1986 payroll
$11.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 1986, 1986–1992. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (14)

PlayerAgeSvc1986198719881989199019911992
Mario Soto299.000$1.1M$1.2M$1.2MFREE AGENT
Dave Parker3513.000$1.1M$1.1MFREE AGENT
John Denny3312.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Pete Rose4523.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Dave Concepcion3816.000$920k$320k$370kFREE AGENT
Buddy Bell3414.000$870k$870k$616kFREE AGENT
Bo Diaz339.000$775k$825k$850k$900kFREE AGENT
Ron Oester308.000$650k$750k$290k$650k$650kFREE AGENT
Bill Gullickson277.000$546k$694kFREE AGENT
Joe Price296.000$430kFREE AGENT
Eddie Milner316.000$350kFREE AGENT$250k
Tony Perez4422.000$275kFREE AGENT
Max Venable297.000$225kFREE AGENT
Sal Butera336.000$102k$57kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (4)

PlayerAgeSvc1986198719881989199019911992
Ted Power315.000$500kFREE AGENT
Nick Esasky263.000$272kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dave Vangorder294.000$150kARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Welsh315.000$80kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (16)

PlayerAgeSvc1986198719881989199019911992
Tom Browning262.000$215kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Franco252.000$195kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ron Robinson242.000$92kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Davis242.000$90kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carl Willis252.000$70kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kal Daniels220.000$60kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tracy Jones250.000$60kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bill Landrum280.000$60kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Murphy261.000$60kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Barry Larkin220.000$60kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kurt Stillwell210.000$60kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul O'Neill231.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wade Rowdon252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Runnells31–—
Mike Smith25–—
Scott Terry260.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Reds 1986; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.