COL⇄CHC

COLCOL Josh Byrnes net +$0.8M net +0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Jed Hoyer net −$0.8M net -0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $3M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.1 ± 0 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Nicky Lopez2B/SS·31y·L/R

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $3M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.1± 0 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

0.60/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr × 0.15 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.