MIA⇄CHC

MIAMIA Peter Bendix net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $76M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.1 ± 10 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2026 odds 15.8% → 15.7% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jonathon Long1B·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $56M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.1± 7 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#266 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.88 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Jace BeckP·26y·R/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $51M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.0± 6 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#658 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.81 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Jed Hoyer net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$12.8M+$12.8M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 3.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2026 odds 97.6% → 97.6% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Braxton GarrettP·28y·R/L

+$13.2M+$13.2M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 3.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.53/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.9/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

1.38/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.77 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (Baseball America rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± band is the uncertainty — wide for unproven prospects, tight for established veterans. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

Historically these expected values are unbiased and land within ±2 WAR of reality 75% of the time — yet the side the model favors actually comes out ahead only 53% of the time. The grade is a calibrated bet, not a prediction. Why trades are an efficient market →