BOS⇄ARI

BOSBOS Dave Dombrowski net +$10.4M net +2.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $21M expected surplus · +$8.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 1.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2018 odds 90% → 91% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Josh TaylorP·25y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$8.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 1.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Mike Hazen net −$10.4M net -2.1

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $25M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2018 odds 11% → 11% (-0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Deven Marrero3B·27y·R/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $25M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.35/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.0/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

-0.12/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.