RRosternomics

Orioles BAL

GM: Roland Hemond

Overview

CONTEND → steady
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.22× league · TAB +10.7
+10.7TAB — talent above budget8th/28
+4.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)8th/28
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars2nd/28
-2.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag7th/28
31%dead money %14th/28
0.562win %8th/28
32.8roster fWAR8th/28
-1surplus $M (value vs cost)10th/28
$39Mpayroll $M6th/28

Roster

CFMike Devereaux 84GBrady Anderson 38GDwight Smith 2G
LFBrady Anderson 76GDwight Smith 51GJack Voigt 17G
RFJeffrey Hammonds 57GJack Voigt 37GChris Sabo 13G
SSCal Ripken Jr. 112GTim Hulett Sr. 6G
2BMark McLemore 96GTim Hulett Sr. 23G
3BLeo Gomez 78GChris Sabo 37GTim Hulett Sr. 9G
1BRafael Palmeiro 111GJack Voigt 6GLeo Gomez 1G
STARTERSMike Mussina 3.4WARBen McDonald 3.0WARJamie Moyer 1.9WARArthur Rhodes 0.5WARSid Fernandez 0.3WAR
CChris Hoiles 98GJeff Tackett 26G
DHHarold Baines 81GLonnie Smith 15GChris Sabo 10G
BULLPEN Lee Smith 33svAlan Mills 0hMark Eichhorn 0hJim Poole 0hMark Williamson 0hTom Bolton 0hBrad Pennington 0hArmando Benítez 0h
CChris Hoiles 98 · Jeff Tackett 26
1BRafael Palmeiro 111 · Jack Voigt 6 · Leo Gomez 1
2BMark McLemore 96 · Tim Hulett Sr. 23
3BLeo Gomez 78 · Chris Sabo 37 · Tim Hulett Sr. 9
SSCal Ripken Jr. 112 · Tim Hulett Sr. 6
LFBrady Anderson 76 · Dwight Smith 51 · Jack Voigt 17
CFMike Devereaux 84 · Brady Anderson 38 · Dwight Smith 2
RFJeffrey Hammonds 57 · Jack Voigt 37 · Chris Sabo 13
DHHarold Baines 81 · Lonnie Smith 15 · Chris Sabo 10
SPMike Mussina 3.4 · Ben McDonald 3.0 · Jamie Moyer 1.9 · Arthur Rhodes 0.5 · Sid Fernandez 0.3
BP Lee Smith 33 · Alan Mills 0 · Mark Eichhorn 0 · Jim Poole 0 · Mark Williamson 0 · Tom Bolton 0 · Brad Pennington 0 · Armando Benítez 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1994 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Cal Ripken Jr. 33 FA-elig 1124.6 5.5 -0.2
Rafael Palmeiro 29 FA-elig 1114.6 5.4 -0.1
Mike Mussina 25 arb 243.4 0.8 +3.2
Chris Hoiles 29 arb 993.3 2.0 +1.8
Brady Anderson 30 FA-elig 1113.0 3.1 +0.4
Ben McDonald 26 arb 243.0 2.7 +0.8
Leo Gomez 28 arb 842.8 0.6 +2.6
Jamie Moyer 31 FA-elig 231.9 0.7 +1.5
Mark Eichhorn 33 FA-elig 431.6 0.6 +1.3
Tim Hulett Sr. 34 FA-elig 361.2 0.6 +0.8
Mark McLemore 29 FA-elig 1041.0 1.0 +0.1
Jeffrey Hammonds 23 pre-arb 680.9 0.1 +0.8
Harold Baines 35 FA-elig 940.8 1.9 -1.0
Lee Smith 36 FA-elig 410.8 2.0 -1.1
Arthur Rhodes 24 arb 100.5 0.2 +0.3
Sid Fernandez 31 FA-elig 190.3 3.3 -2.9
Armando Benitez 21 pre-arb 30.3 0.1 +0.3
Mike Oquist 26 pre-arb 150.3 0.1 +0.2
Mark Williamson 34 FA-elig 280.3 0.3 -0.1
Jeff Tackett 28 arb 260.2 0.2 +0.1
Jack Voigt 28 pre-arb 590.2 0.1 +0.1
Dwight Smith↔ ANA 30 arb 280.2 0.3 -0.1
Alan Mills 27 arb 470.1 0.5 -0.4
Scott Klingenbeck 23 pre-arb 10.0 0.1 -0.1
Damon Buford 24 pre-arb 40.0 0.1 -0.1
Tom Bolton 32 22-0.1
Mark Smith 24 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.1 -0.2
Jim Poole 28 arb 38-0.1 0.3 -0.4
Chris Sabo 32 FA-elig 68-0.2 2.0 -2.2
Brad Pennington 25 pre-arb 8-0.3 0.1 -0.4
Lonnie Smith 38 FA-elig 35-0.4 0.8 -1.2
Mike Devereaux 31 FA-elig 85-1.2 3.4 -4.8

Key additions (new vs 1993)

PlayerfWAR
Rafael Palmeiro4.6
Mark Eichhorn1.6
Lee Smith0.8
Sid Fernandez0.3
Armando Benitez0.3
Dwight Smith0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 1993)

Player1993 fWAR
David Segui1.5
Gregg Olson1.4
Fernando Valenzuela1.4
Harold Reynolds1.3
Mike Pagliarulo1.3
Rick Sutcliffe0.5

Current & Historical Payroll

1994 payroll
$39.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 1994, 1994–2000. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (15)

PlayerAgeSvc1994199519961997199819992000
Cal Ripken Jr.3313.000$5.5M$6.7M$6.7M$6.8M$6.4M$6.5M$6.3M
Rafael Palmeiro298.000$5.4M$4.9M$5.4M$5.3M$6.5MFREE AGENT
Mike Devereaux317.000$3.4MFREE AGENT$900k
Sid Fernandez3111.000$3.3M$1.4MFREE AGENT
Brady Anderson306.000$3.1M$3.3M$3.6M$4.0M$5.4M$5.7M$7.1M
Lee Smith3614.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Chris Sabo326.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Harold Baines3514.000$1.9M$1.9MFREE AGENT$1.3M$1.3M$1.4M$1.5M
Mark McLemore298.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Lonnie Smith3816.000$750kFREE AGENT
Jamie Moyer318.000$725k$1.1MFREE AGENT
Tim Hulett Sr.3411.000$550kFREE AGENT
Mark Eichhorn3312.000$550kFREE AGENT
Mark Williamson347.000$350kFREE AGENT
Tom Bolton327.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc1994199519961997199819992000
Ben McDonald265.000$2.7MFREE AGENT
Chris Hoiles295.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Mike Mussina253.000$775kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Leo Gomez284.000$550kARB 3FREE AGENT
Alan Mills274.000$500kARB 3FREE AGENT
Dwight Smith305.000$290kFREE AGENT
Jim Poole284.000$270kARB 3FREE AGENT
Arthur Rhodes243.000$230kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Tackett283.000$162kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (8)

PlayerAgeSvc1994199519961997199819992000
Jack Voigt282.000$150kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeffrey Hammonds231.000$150kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Damon Buford241.000$130kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Pennington251.000$130kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Oquist261.000$112kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Armando Benitez210.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Klingenbeck230.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Smith240.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Orioles 1994; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3