LAD⇄BAL

LADLAD Fred Claire net +$2.4M net +0.3

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $30M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.7 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 1995 odds 34% → 36% (+1.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

John O'DonoghueP·26y·L/L

−$0.1M−$0.1M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.7± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.13/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Roland Hemond net −$2.4M net -0.3

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $23M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.1 ± 3 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 1995 odds 47% → 45% (-1.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

John DeSilvaP·27y·R/R

+$2.0M+$2.0M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.1± 3 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#211 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.25/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.89 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.