ANA⇄ATL

ANAANA Jerry Dipoto net +$4.0M net +0.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $18M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2013 odds 10% → 9% (-0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Cory RasmusP·25y·R/R

+$2.7M+$2.7M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

#38 overall draft pick → 0.25/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.25/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ATLATL Frank Wren net −$4.0M net -0.1

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $4M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 0.3 ± 0 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2013 odds 60% → 62% (+2.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Scott DownsP·37y·L/L

−$3.6M−$3.6M± $4M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 0.3± 0 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

0.50/yr blended

Horizon

0.6 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.