RRosternomics
DW

Dick Wagner

Oct 19, 1927 (Central City, NE) – Oct 5, 2006 · died at 78

General manager for the Reds and Astros (1979–1987).

2 seasons with salary-era data across 2 stints. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Overview

Titles0
Pennants0
Playoffs1
Record172–152
Win %0.531
+0.3GM WAR — wins above a replacement GM (org-adjusted, shrunk; per season) ±7.169th/195 execs
8.0Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)23rd/195 execs
-4.0Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)29th/195 execs
35%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)103rd/195 execs
$2MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track165th/195 execs
$1MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)168th/195 execs
$1MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade117th/195 execs
$0MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees139th/195 execs
+5.0TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total67th/195 execs
+8.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)50th/195 execs
6.91Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)1st/195 execs
+0Roster surplus $M43rd/195 execs

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
Astros GM 1986–1987 2 +8.0 +4.00 +5.0 +1.1 +77.9 +2.2 -12.7 +0.0 6.91 0.531 1 +0
Reds GM 1979–1983 0 +0.0 +0.0 +0.0 +121.7 -9.2 -5.7 +0.1
Career total (1985+ data) 2 +8.0 +5.0 +1.1 +199.7 -7.0 -18.4 +0.1 6.91 0.531 1 +0

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+199.7
Trade-7.0
Free agency-18.4
Rule 5 / minor draft+0.1
Sourcing mix: 90% draft · 2% FA · 8% trade · 0% R5

Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across Dick Wagner's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.

Players acquired — 50 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr Lev
Craig Biggio 2B HOU Draft 1987 19 +65.8 +3.5
Eric Davis OF CIN Draft 1980 8 +28.2 +3.5
Chris Sabo 3B CIN Draft 1983 7 +17.9 +2.6
Tom Browning P CIN Draft 1982 9 +16.8 +1.9
Paul O'Neill OF CIN Draft 1981 7 +14.2 +2.0
Rob Dibble P CIN Draft 1983 5 +13.7 +2.7
Darryl Kile P HOU Draft 1987 6 +13.3 +2.2
Kal Daniels OF CIN Draft 1982 4 +11.4 +2.8
Joe Oliver C CIN Draft 1983 6 +7.3 +1.2
Ron Robinson P CIN Draft 1980 6 +6.8 +1.1
John Franco P CIN Trade 1983 5 +6.3 +1.3
Larry Andersen P HOU Free agency 1986 5 +5.2 +1.0 2.3
Billy Hatcher OF HOU Trade 1986 4 +4.7 +1.2 8.4
Rob Murphy P CIN Draft 1981 3 +4.0 +1.3
Ted Power P CIN Trade 1982 4 +4.0 +1.0
Danny Darwin P HOU Trade 1986 5 +2.8 +0.6 8.3
Tracy Jones OF CIN Draft 1983 3 +2.5 +0.8
Andújar Cedeño SS HOU Intl FA 1986 3 +1.9 +0.6
Lenny Harris 3B CIN Draft 1983 5 +1.4 +0.3
Eric Anthony OF HOU Draft 1986 3 +1.4 +0.5
Wayne Krenchicki 3B CIN Trade 1982 1 +1.1 +1.1
Terry McGriff C CIN Draft 1981 2 +0.2 +0.1
Dean Hartgraves P HOU Draft 1987 1 +0.2 +0.2
Jeff Montgomery P CIN Draft 1983 1 +0.1 +0.1
Randy Hennis P HOU Draft 1987 1 +0.1 +0.1
Davey Lopes 2B HOU Free agency 1986 2 +0.1 +0.1 3.9
Dan Driessen 1B HOU Trade 1986 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.8
Paul Householder OF HOU Free agency 1987 -0.0
Ty Waller 3B/OF HOU Trade 1987 -0.0
Rocky Childress P HOU Trade 1987 1 -0.0 -0.0 0.0
Dann Bilardello C CIN Rule 5 1982 -0.1
Terry Lee 1B CIN Intl FA 1982 1 -0.1 -0.1
Mike Smith P CIN Intl FA 1981 1 -0.1 -0.1
Gary Cooper 3B HOU Draft 1986 -0.1
Dale Berra 3B/SS HOU Free agency 1986 -0.2
Lloyd McClendon OF CIN Trade 1982 -0.3
Leo García OF CIN Trade 1982 -0.4
Wade Rowdon 3B CIN Trade 1982 1 -0.4 -0.4
Scott Terry P CIN Draft 1980 -0.4
Juan Agosto P HOU Free agency 1987 2 -0.4 -0.2 0.0
Aurelio López P HOU Free agency 1986 -0.4
Ryan Bowen P HOU Draft 1986 1 -0.5 -0.5
Brian Meyer P HOU Draft 1986 -0.5
Andy Mota 2B HOU Draft 1987 -0.5
Karl Rhodes OF HOU Draft 1986 1 -0.5 -0.5
Bob Buchanan P CIN Draft 1979 -0.6
Dave Rohde 2B HOU Draft 1986 -0.6
Ronn Reynolds C HOU Trade 1987 -0.9
Kurt Stillwell SS CIN Draft 1983 -1.4
Al Osuna P HOU Draft 1987 -1.9

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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