Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 1 | 1.1 | PHI | Mickey Moniak | OF LF | 18 HS | L/R | 6'1" | 209 | — | — | Johnny Almaraz | Matt Klentak | 3.1 | -15.5 | 34.3±4.1 |
| 2016 | 2 | 1.2 | CIN | Nick Senzel | IF 3B | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 217 | — | — | Chris Buckley | Dick Williams | -1.1 | -18.6 | 21.5±4.0 |
| 2016 | 3 | 1.3 | ATL | Ian Anderson | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 170 | — | — | Brian Bridges | John Hart | 3.4 | -3.4 | 9.9±4.1 |
| 2016 | 4 | 1.4 | COL | Riley Pint | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'5" | 225 | — | — | Marc Gustafson | Jeff Bridich | -0.2 | -7.1 | 9.9±4.1 |
| 2016 | 5 | 1.5 | MIL | Corey Ray | OF CF | 22 COLL | L/L | 6'0" | 196 | — | — | Ray Montgomery | David Stearns | -0.0 | -16.4 | 23.5±4.1 |
| 2016 | 6 | 1.6 | OAK | A.J. Puk | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'7" | 248 | — | — | Eric Kubota | David Forst | 3.3 | -3.9 | 7.9±3.8 |
| 2016 | 7 | 1.7 | MIA | Braxton Garrett | P P | 19 HS | R/L | 6'2" | 202 | — | — | — | Michael Hill | 5.2 | -1.5 | 9.9±3.8 |
| 2016 | 8 | 1.8 | SDP | Cal Quantrill | P P | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'3" | 195 | — | — | Mark Conner | AJ Preller | 7.3 | +0.1 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2016 | 9 | 1.9 | DET | Matt Manning | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'6" | 195 | — | — | Scott Pleis | Al Avila | 2.7 | -1.7 | 5.8±3.8 |
| 2016 | 10 | 1.10 | CHW | Zack Collins | C C | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'3" | 220 | — | — | — | Kenny Williams | -2.1 | -16.3 | 17.0±4.2 |
| 2016 | 11 | 1.11 | SEA | Kyle Lewis | OF CF | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 222 | — | — | Tom McNamara | Jerry Dipoto | 2.5 | -1.2 | 4.4±3.8 |
| 2016 | 12 | 1.12 | BOS | Jay Groome | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 6'6" | 262 | — | — | Mike Rikard | Dave Dombrowski | 0.0 | -3.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2016 | 13 | 1.13 | TBR | Josh Lowe | OF LF | 18 HS | L/R | 6'3" | 220 | — | — | Rob Metzler | Matt Silverman | 4.1 | -0.7 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2016 | 14 | 1.14 | CLE | Will Benson | OF RF | 18 HS | L/L | 6'4" | 230 | — | — | Brad Grant | Chris Antonetti | 0.7 | -4.1 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2016 | 15 | 1.15 | MIN | Alex Kirilloff | OF RF | 19 HS | L/L | 6'2" | 195 | — | — | Deron Johnson | Rob Antony | 0.0 | -4.8 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2016 | 16 | 1.16 | ANA | Matt Thaiss | C C | 21 COLL | L/R | 5'11" | 215 | — | — | Ric Wilson | Billy Eppler | 0.3 | -2.7 | 2.0±3.9 |
| 2016 | 17 | 1.17 | HOU | Forrest Whitley | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'7" | 208 | — | — | Mike Elias | Jeff Luhnow | -0.1 | -3.6 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2016 | 18 | 1.18 | NYY | Blake Rutherford | OF LF | 19 HS | L/R | 6'1" | 205 | — | — | Damon Oppenheimer | Brian Cashman | -0.3 | -5.2 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2016 | 19 | 1.19 | NYM | Justin Dunn | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 210 | — | — | Marc Tramuta | Sandy Alderson | -0.4 | -4.8 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2016 | 20 | 1.20 | LAD | Gavin Lux | OF LF | 19 HS | L/R | 5'11" | 190 | — | — | Billy Gasparino | Andrew Friedman | 5.7 | +0.9 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2016 | 21 | 1.21 | TOR | T.J. Zeuch | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'7" | 245 | — | — | Brian Parker | Ross Atkins | -0.8 | -5.2 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2016 | 22 | 1.22 | PIT | Will Craig | IF 3B | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 235 | — | — | Joe Dellicarri | Neal Huntington | -0.6 | -8.7 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2016 | 23 | 1.23 | STL | Delvin Pérez | IF SS | 18 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 175 | — | — | Randy Flores | John Mozeliak | 0.0 | -3.0 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2016 | 24 | 1.24 | SDP | Hudson Potts | IF 3B | 18 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 205 | — | — | Mark Conner | AJ Preller | 0.0 | -3.0 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2016 | 25 | 1.25 | SDP | Eric Lauer | P P | 21 COLL | R/L | 6'3" | 209 | — | — | Mark Conner | AJ Preller | 5.7 | +1.3 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2016 | 26 | 1.26 | CHW | Zack Burdi | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 210 | — | — | — | Kenny Williams | -0.3 | -2.3 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2016 | 27 | 1.27 | BAL | Cody Sedlock | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 220 | — | — | Gary Rajsich | Dan Duquette | 0.0 | -2.0 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2016 | 28 | 1.28 | WSN | Carter Kieboom | IF 3B | 19 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 221 | — | — | Eddie Longosz | Michael Rizzo | -2.1 | -4.1 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2016 | 29 | 1.29 | WSN | Dane Dunning | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 225 | — | — | Eddie Longosz | Michael Rizzo | 5.2 | +3.2 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2016 | 30 | 1.30 | TEX | Cole Ragans | P P | 19 HS | L/L | 6'4" | 190 | — | — | Kip Fagg | Jon Daniels | 9.1 | +6.9 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 2016 | 31 | 1.31 | NYM | Anthony Kay | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'0" | 225 | — | — | Marc Tramuta | Sandy Alderson | 0.3 | -1.7 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2016 | 32 | 1.32 | LAD | Will Smith | C C | 21 COLL | R/R | 5'10" | 195 | — | — | Billy Gasparino | Andrew Friedman | 23.1 | +20.1 | 2.0±3.8 |
| 2016 | 33 | 1.33 | STL | Dylan Carlson | OF LF | 18 HS | S/L | 6'1" | 200 | — | — | Randy Flores | John Mozeliak | 2.7 | +1.0 | 2.4±3.7 |
| 2016 | 34 | 1.34 | STL | Dakota Hudson | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 215 | — | — | Randy Flores | John Mozeliak | 2.8 | +0.8 | 3.0±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.