RRosternomics
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Pirates PIT

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GM: Neal Huntington

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.81× league · TAB -0.5
-0.5TAB — talent above budget16th/30
-0.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)16th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars13th/30
-4.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag10th/30
49%dead money %25th/30
0.484win %18th/30
31.0roster fWAR18th/30
-1surplus $M (value vs cost)12th/30
$102Mpayroll $M18th/30

Roster

CFAndrew McCutchen 151GStarling Marte 16GGregory Polanco 5G
LFStarling Marte 114GGregory Polanco 29GMatt Joyce 26G
RFGregory Polanco 111GMatt Joyce 43GSean Rodríguez 17G
SSJordy Mercer 146GSean Rodríguez 27GPedro Florimón 6G
2BJosh Harrison 128GSean Rodríguez 29GAdam Frazier 17G
3BJung Ho Kang 92GDavid Freese 78GSean Rodríguez 11G
1BJohn Jaso 108GDavid Freese 58GSean Rodríguez 57G
STARTERSGerrit Cole 2.7WARIván Nova 1.8WARJameson Taillon 1.5WARJuan Nicasio 1.4WARChad Kuhl 0.8WAR
CFrancisco Cervelli 95GEric Fryer 54GChris Stewart 31G
DHMatt Joyce 4GGregory Polanco 4GFrancisco Cervelli 1G
BULLPEN★ Tony Watson 15svNeftalí Feliz 29hFelipe Vázquez 26hAntonio Bastardo 15hJared Hughes 4hA.J. Schugel 3hKyle Lobstein 0hDrew Hutchison 0h
CFrancisco Cervelli 95 · Eric Fryer 54 · Chris Stewart 31
1BJohn Jaso 108 · David Freese 58 · Sean Rodríguez 57
2BJosh Harrison 128 · Sean Rodríguez 29 · Adam Frazier 17
3BJung Ho Kang 92 · David Freese 78 · Sean Rodríguez 11
SSJordy Mercer 146 · Sean Rodríguez 27 · Pedro Florimón 6
LFStarling Marte 114 · Gregory Polanco 29 · Matt Joyce 26
CFAndrew McCutchen 151 · Starling Marte 16 · Gregory Polanco 5
RFGregory Polanco 111 · Matt Joyce 43 · Sean Rodríguez 17
DHMatt Joyce 4 · Gregory Polanco 4 · Francisco Cervelli 1
SPGerrit Cole 2.7 · Iván Nova 1.8 · Jameson Taillon 1.5 · Juan Nicasio 1.4 · Chad Kuhl 0.8
BP★ Tony Watson 15 · Neftalí Feliz 29 · Felipe Vázquez 26 · Antonio Bastardo 15 · Jared Hughes 4 · A.J. Schugel 3 · Kyle Lobstein 0 · Drew Hutchison 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2016 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Starling Marte 27 arb 1293.7 3.3 +8.7
Jung Ho Kang 29 pre-arb 1032.9 2.5 +6.9
Francisco Cervelli 30 FA-elig 1012.8 3.5 +5.7
Gerrit Cole 25 arb 212.7 0.5 +8.3
Jordy Mercer 29 arb 1492.6 2.1 +6.4
Sean Rodríguez 31 FA-elig 1402.4 2.5 +5.2
Gregory Polanco 24 pre-arb 1442.2 0.5 +6.6
Josh Harrison 28 arb 1311.9 5.2 +0.9
Matt Joyce 31 FA-elig 1401.8 1.0 +4.8
Iván Nova↔ NYY 29 FA-elig 111.8 1.4 +4.4
David Freese 33 FA-elig 1411.7 3.0 +2.6
Jameson Taillon 24 – 181.5 0.3 +4.5
Juan Nicasio 29 arb 521.4 3.0 +1.4
Andrew McCutchen 29 FA-elig 1530.9 13.0 -10.1
Mark Melancon↔ WSN 31 FA-elig 450.9 5.8 -2.9
Chad Kuhl 23 – 150.8 0.2 +2.5
John Jaso 32 FA-elig 1320.7 4.0 -1.7
A.J. Schugel 27 pre-arb 360.5 0.4 +1.4
Adam Frazier 24 – 660.3 0.3 +0.8
Wade LeBlanc↔ SEA 31 arb 80.3 0.1 +1.0
Francisco Liriano↔ TOR 32 FA-elig 230.3 9.5 -8.7
Jeff Locke 28 arb 310.2 3.0 -2.4
Tyler Glasnow 22 – 70.1 0.1 +0.3
Felipe Vázquez↔ WSN 24 pre-arb 280.1 0.2 +0.2
Jacob Stallings 26 – 50.1 0.1 +0.3
Steven Brault 24 – 80.1 0.1 +0.2
Antonio Bastardo↔ NYM 30 FA-elig 280.0 2.2 -2.0
Drew Hutchison↔ TOR 25 arb 60.0 1.5 -1.3
Ryan Vogelsong 38 FA-elig 240.0 2.0 -1.9
Zach Phillips 29 pre-arb 80.0 0.1 +0.0
Rob Scahill↔ MIL 29 – 150.0 0.1 -0.0
Phil Coke↔ NYY 33 FA-elig 30.0 0.0 +0.0
Jorge Rondon 28 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Chris Stewart 34 FA-elig 34-0.0 1.4 -1.4
Curtis Partch 29 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Max Moroff 23 – 2-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Josh Bell 23 – 45-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Wilfredo Boscan 26 – 6-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Tony Watson 31 arb 70-0.1 3.5 -3.7
Neftalí Feliz 28 FA-elig 62-0.1 3.9 -4.1
Elias Díaz 25 pre-arb 1-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Kyle Lobstein 26 pre-arb 14-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Jason Rogers 28 pre-arb 23-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Pedro Florimón 29 pre-arb 18-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Kelvin Marte 28 – 2-0.2 0.0 -0.6
Arquimedes Caminero↔ SEA 29 arb 39-0.2 0.4 -0.9
Cole Figueroa 29 – 23-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Michael Morse 34 FA-elig 6-0.2 8.5 -9.2
Trevor Williams 24 – 7-0.2 0.1 -0.8
Alen Hanson 23 – 27-0.2 0.1 -0.9
Cory Luebke 31 FA-elig 9-0.2 1.0 -1.8
Jared Hughes 30 arb 67-0.3 2.2 -3.3
Eric Fryer↔ STL 30 arb 36-0.4 0.3 -1.7
Jonathon Niese↔ NYM 29 FA-elig 24-0.4 7.2 -8.6
Erik Kratz↔ HOU 36 FA-elig 18-0.5 0.5 -2.2

Key additions (new vs 2015)

PlayerfWAR
Matt Joyce1.8
Iván Nova1.8
David Freese1.7
Jameson Taillon1.5
Juan Nicasio1.4
Chad Kuhl0.8

Key subtractions (gone from 2015)

Player2015 fWAR
Neil Walker2.6
A.J. Burnett2.5
J.A. Happ1.9
Joakim Soria0.8
Joe Blanton0.6
Pedro Álvarez0.5

Current & Historical Payroll

2016 payroll
$102.0M
2017 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2016, 2016–2022. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2016; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Andrew McCutchen296.123$13.0MFREE AGENT
Francisco Liriano329.104$9.5MFREE AGENT
Michael Morse3411.000$8.5MFREE AGENT
Jonathon Niese296.107$7.2MFREE AGENT
John Jaso326.032$4.0MFREE AGENT
David Freese336.028$3.0MFREE AGENT
Sean Rodríguez316.133$2.5MFREE AGENT
Antonio Bastardo306.054$2.2MFREE AGENT
Ryan Vogelsong389.020$2.0MFREE AGENT
Cory Luebke316.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Matt Joyce316.123$1.0MFREE AGENT
Erik Kratz366.000$464kFREE AGENT
Phil Coke336.116$15kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Mark Melancon315.098$5.8MFREE AGENT
Josh Harrison284.033$5.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Neftalí Feliz285.151$3.9MFREE AGENT
Francisco Cervelli305.146$3.5MFREE AGENT
Tony Watson314.101$3.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Starling Marte273.070$3.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Locke283.020$3.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Nicasio294.084$3.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jared Hughes303.162$2.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordy Mercer293.095$2.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Hutchison253.128$1.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Iván Nova295.024$1.4MFREE AGENT
Chris Stewart345.091$1.4MFREE AGENT
Wade LeBlanc313.038$72kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (28)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Jung Ho Kang291.000$2.5MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gerrit Cole252.111$541kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gregory Polanco241.103$535kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Lobstein261.033$520kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Elias Díaz250.034$510kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
A.J. Schugel270.040$372kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Arquimedes Caminero291.060$364kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Fryer302.108$345kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jameson Taillon240.000$302kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Frazier240.000$266kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Kuhl230.000$216kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Felipe Vázquez240.162$193kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Bell230.000$147kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Rogers280.163$132kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alen Hanson230.000$105kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steven Brault240.000$97kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cole Figueroa290.067$83kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Glasnow220.000$80kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Florimón292.042$77kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Scahill291.147$75kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Williams240.000$75kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Stallings260.000$69kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Phillips290.091$56kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilfredo Boscan26–$47k
Curtis Partch290.130$28kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kelvin Marte28–$22k
Jorge Rondon280.061$17kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Max Moroff230.000$11kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Pirates 2016; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.