RRosternomics

Yankees NYY

GM: Brian Cashman

Overview

FORCED-SPEND → steady
expensive & losing · year 4 in this regime · payroll 1.74× league · TAB -7.5
-7.5TAB — talent above budget24th/30
-5.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)23rd/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars4th/30
-5.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag21st/30
29%dead money %9th/30
0.519win %14th/30
33.6roster fWAR16th/30
-109surplus $M (value vs cost)30th/30
$219Mpayroll $M2nd/30

Roster

CFJacoby Ellsbury 148GAaron Hicks 24GBrett Gardner 3G
LFBrett Gardner 147GAaron Hicks 25GRob Refsnyder 5G
RFAaron Hicks 86GAaron Judge 27GRob Refsnyder 23G
SSDidi Gregorius 153GRonald Torreyes 15GStarlin Castro 3G
2BStarlin Castro 150GRonald Torreyes 14GRob Refsnyder 8G
3BChase Headley 140GRonald Torreyes 34GDonovan Solano 2G
1BMark Teixeira 110GTyler Austin 27GRob Refsnyder 25G
STARTERSMasahiro Tanaka 4.7WARMichael Pineda 3.2WARCC Sabathia 2.6WARNathan Eovaldi 0.7WARLuis Severino 0.6WAR
CBrian McCann 92GAustin Romine 50GGary Sánchez 36G
DHAlex Rodriguez 57GBilly Butler 53GBrian McCann 31G
BULLPEN Dellin Betances 12svTyler Clippard 25hTommy Layne 12hAdam Warren 12hKirby Yates 2hChasen Shreve 1hAnthony Swarzak 1hNick Goody 0h
CBrian McCann 92 · Austin Romine 50 · Gary Sánchez 36
1BMark Teixeira 110 · Tyler Austin 27 · Rob Refsnyder 25
2BStarlin Castro 150 · Ronald Torreyes 14 · Rob Refsnyder 8
3BChase Headley 140 · Ronald Torreyes 34 · Donovan Solano 2
SSDidi Gregorius 153 · Ronald Torreyes 15 · Starlin Castro 3
LFBrett Gardner 147 · Aaron Hicks 25 · Rob Refsnyder 5
CFJacoby Ellsbury 148 · Aaron Hicks 24 · Brett Gardner 3
RFAaron Hicks 86 · Aaron Judge 27 · Rob Refsnyder 23
DHAlex Rodriguez 57 · Billy Butler 53 · Brian McCann 31
SPMasahiro Tanaka 4.7 · Michael Pineda 3.2 · CC Sabathia 2.6 · Nathan Eovaldi 0.7 · Luis Severino 0.6
BP Dellin Betances 12 · Tyler Clippard 25 · Tommy Layne 12 · Adam Warren 12 · Kirby Yates 2 · Chasen Shreve 1 · Anthony Swarzak 1 · Nick Goody 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2016 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Masahiro Tanaka 27 pre-arb 314.7 22.0 -6.9
Michael Pineda 27 arb 323.2 4.3 +6.0
Gary Sánchez 23 pre-arb 533.0 0.2 +9.6
Dellin Betances 28 arb 732.9 0.5 +8.9
Brett Gardner 32 FA-elig 1482.6 13.5 -5.0
CC Sabathia 35 FA-elig 302.6 25.0 -16.5
Starlin Castro 26 FA-elig 1512.5 7.9 +0.4
Didi Gregorius 26 arb 1532.5 2.4 +5.6
Brian McCann 32 FA-elig 1302.1 17.0 -10.0
Chase Headley 32 FA-elig 1402.0 13.0 -6.6
Andrew Miller↔ CLE 31 FA-elig 441.9 5.7 +0.4
Carlos Beltrán↔ TEX 39 FA-elig 991.8 9.8 -4.0
Jacoby Ellsbury 32 FA-elig 1481.8 21.1 -15.3
Aroldis Chapman↔ CHC 28 FA-elig 311.4 6.0 -1.5
Nathan Eovaldi 26 arb 240.7 5.6 -3.3
Luis Severino 22 pre-arb 220.6 0.5 +1.6
Tyler Clippard↔ ARI 31 FA-elig 290.5 2.6 -1.1
Bryan Mitchell 25 pre-arb 50.4 0.5 +0.7
Iván Nova↔ PIT 29 FA-elig 210.4 2.7 -1.5
Chris Parmelee 28 pre-arb 60.3 0.3 +0.8
Richard Bleier 29 230.3 0.3 +0.8
Ronald Torreyes 23 pre-arb 720.3 0.5 +0.5
Kirby Yates 29 pre-arb 410.3 0.5 +0.5
Blake Parker↔ SEA 31 pre-arb 160.2 0.1 +0.4
Adam Warren↔ CHC 28 arb 290.1 0.8 -0.4
Billy Butler↔ OAK 30 FA-elig 120.1 1.4 -1.2
Donovan Solano 28 arb 90.1 0.0 +0.2
Johnny Barbato 23 pre-arb 130.0 0.5 -0.4
Luis Cessa 24 pre-arb 170.0 0.5 -0.5
Branden Pinder 27 pre-arb 10.0 0.5 -0.5
Mason Williams 24 pre-arb 12-0.0 0.5 -0.5
Eric Young Jr. 31 6-0.0 1.0 -1.0
Aaron Judge 24 27-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Conor Mullee 28 3-0.0 0.3 -0.3
Tyler Olson 26 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Tommy Layne↔ BOS 31 arb 29-0.0 0.3 -0.4
Jonathan Holder 23 8-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Chad Green 25 12-0.0 0.2 -0.4
Ben Gamel↔ SEA 24 6-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Nick Goody 24 pre-arb 27-0.1 0.3 -0.7
Ike Davis 29 8-0.1
James Pazos 25 pre-arb 7-0.2 0.1 -0.6
Phil Coke↔ PIT 33 3-0.2 0.0 -0.5
Tyler Austin 24 pre-arb 31-0.2 0.1 -0.8
Austin Romine 27 arb 62-0.3 0.6 -1.5
Chasen Shreve 25 pre-arb 37-0.3 0.5 -1.6
Anthony Swarzak 30 arb 26-0.3 0.5 -1.6
Ben Heller 24 10-0.4 0.1 -1.4
Rob Refsnyder 25 pre-arb 58-0.4 0.3 -1.6
Aaron Hicks 26 arb 123-0.4 0.6 -2.0
Dustin Ackley 28 arb 28-0.5 3.2 -4.9
Mark Teixeira 36 FA-elig 116-0.7 23.1 -25.4
Alex Rodriguez 40 FA-elig 65-1.2 21.0 -25.0

Key additions (new vs 2015)

PlayerfWAR
Starlin Castro2.5
Aroldis Chapman1.4
Tyler Clippard0.5
Chris Parmelee0.3
Richard Bleier0.3
Ronald Torreyes0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2015)

Player2015 fWAR
Justin Wilson1.5
Chris Young0.8
John Ryan Murphy0.8
Slade Heathcott0.5
Stephen Drew0.4
Chase Whitley0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2016 payroll
$218.8M
2017 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2016, 2016–2022. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2016; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
CC Sabathia3515.000$25.0MFREE AGENT
Mark Teixeira3613.000$23.1MFREE AGENT
Jacoby Ellsbury328.037$21.1MFREE AGENT
Alex Rodriguez4022.000$21.0MFREE AGENT
Brian McCann3210.117$17.0MFREE AGENT
Brett Gardner327.072$13.5MFREE AGENT
Chase Headley327.123$13.0MFREE AGENT
Carlos Beltrán3917.014$9.8MFREE AGENT
Andrew Miller317.062$5.7MFREE AGENT
Tyler Clippard316.148$2.6MFREE AGENT
Billy Butler308.120$1.4MFREE AGENT
Eric Young Jr.317.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Phil Coke336.116$15kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Starlin Castro265.150$7.9MFREE AGENT
Aroldis Chapman285.034$6.0MFREE AGENT
Nathan Eovaldi264.013$5.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Pineda274.099$4.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Dustin Ackley284.087$3.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Iván Nova295.024$2.7MFREE AGENT
Adam Warren283.036$850kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Swarzak304.078$484kARB 3FREE AGENT
Donovan Solano283.092$42kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ike Davis295.155FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (30)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Masahiro Tanaka272.000$22.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Didi Gregorius262.159$2.4MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Hicks262.041$574kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Romine272.044$556kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chasen Shreve251.041$533kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Severino220.061$521kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Mitchell250.129$517kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kirby Yates291.066$512kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mason Williams240.166$510kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ronald Torreyes230.022$509kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dellin Betances282.078$507kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Johnny Barbato231.008$507kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Cessa240.000$507kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Branden Pinder270.091$471kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Goody240.039$327kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Refsnyder250.043$313kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Parmelee282.058$283kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Conor Mullee28$277k
Richard Bleier290.000$275kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Layne311.144$260kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Green250.000$208kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gary Sánchez230.023$172kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Parker311.148$144kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Austin242.151$141kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Judge240.000$141kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Heller240.000$119kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Pazos250.034$86kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Holder230.000$86kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Gamel240.000$16kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Olson260.059$6kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Yankees 2016; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3