Rosternomics

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Mike Elias

Astros

2013–2016 Β· 4 drafts Β· 163 picks

Early-Round Selection
-3.4
#78 of 172
rds 1–10, cost-ctrl
Late-Round Value
+18.7
#21 of 172
rds 11+, total career
Total DVOS
-9.8
#83 of 172
-2.46/draft
Hitter DVOS
+67.5
#40 of 172
reliable skill (+0.54)
Career fWAR drafted
123
#58 of 172

Value by position β€” where the value came from (descriptive)

PosPicksfWARDVOS
IF1158 +35.6
OF646 +30.2
C44 +1.7
P1715 -23.8

Position from each player's primary MLB fielding spot; never-MLB picks excluded. This table is descriptive, not a skill ranking β€” per-position DVOS isn't reliable at this granularity (split-half β‰ˆ 0 for P/OF, a small-sample mirage for C). The one reliable position cut is Hitter vs Pitcher: drafting hitters (C/IF/OF) above slot repeats (split-half +0.54, the KPI above), but drafting pitchers above slot does not (β‰ˆ 0) β€” so we rank Hitter DVOS and leave pitcher out.

Top picks β€” who drove the value

YrOvrPlayerPosfWARExpDVOS
20152Alex Bregman3B 47.014.3 +32.7
20155Kyle TuckerOF 25.69.0 +16.6
2014466RamΓ³n LaureanoOF 14.40.2 +14.2
2015319Patrick SandovalP 9.50.3 +9.2
2015349Myles StrawOF 8.10.3 +7.8
201475J.D. Davis3B 6.81.9 +4.9
2013137Tony Kemp2B 5.50.8 +4.7
201697Jake RogersC 5.41.1 +4.3
2014676Ryan ThompsonP 2.70.1 +2.7
2014106Daniel MengdenP 2.71.0 +1.6
2015139Trent ThorntonP 1.60.8 +0.8
2013977Tyler White1B 0.70.1 +0.6
20141006Josh JamesP 0.60.1 +0.6
2013167Jacob NottinghamC 0.50.8 -0.4
2016157Abraham Toro2B 0.10.8 -0.7

By draft class

YearPicksfWARExpectedDVOS
2013405.7 37.2-31.5
20144125.3 39.5-14.3
20154289.1 39.1+50.0
2016403.2 17.2-14.0
Total163 123– -9.8

DVOS = Ξ£ (a pick's career fWAR βˆ’ the expected fWAR for that overall slot), credited to the scouting director SABR lists for that draft. We only attribute years with one unambiguous director on record; years where SABR lists multiple names (handoffs/overlaps) or none are left out, so a director's record here may skip years he was involved in β€” see the coverage note on the leaderboard. Single drafts are noise-dominated β€” one star swamps a class β€” so read the multi-year totals, not any one year. Full method on the DVOS page.