RRosternomics
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Nationals WSN

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GM: Michael Rizzo

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 3 in this regime · payroll 1.18× league · TAB +9.0
+9.0TAB — talent above budget5th/30
+10.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)3rd/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars4th/30
-3.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag4th/30
29%dead money %8th/30
0.586win %2nd/30
45.2roster fWAR3rd/30
-1surplus $M (value vs cost)11th/30
$148Mpayroll $M10th/30

2016: made playoffs · 95–67. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFBen Revere 74GMichael A. Taylor 64GTrea Turner 45G
LFJayson Werth 131GBen Revere 25GChris Heisey 25G
RFBryce Harper 143GChris Heisey 16GBrian Goodwin 8G
SSDanny Espinosa 157GStephen Drew 12GWilmer Difo 5G
2BDaniel Murphy 117GTrea Turner 30GStephen Drew 21G
3BAnthony Rendon 155GStephen Drew 12GWilmer Difo 3G
1BRyan Zimmerman 114GClint Robinson 46GDaniel Murphy 21G
STARTERSMax Scherzer 5.8WARStephen Strasburg 4.2WARTanner Roark 3.3WARGio Gonzalez 2.7WARJoe Ross 2.5WAR
CWilson Ramos 128GJose Lobatón 38GPedro Severino 15G
DHJayson Werth 6GStephen Drew 1GChris Heisey 1G
BULLPEN★ Mark Melancon 47svBlake Treinen 22hOliver Pérez 15hShawn Kelley 13hMarc Rzepczynski 11hSammy Solís 9hMatt Belisle 4hJonathan Papelbon 1h
CWilson Ramos 128 · Jose Lobatón 38 · Pedro Severino 15
1BRyan Zimmerman 114 · Clint Robinson 46 · Daniel Murphy 21
2BDaniel Murphy 117 · Trea Turner 30 · Stephen Drew 21
3BAnthony Rendon 155 · Stephen Drew 12 · Wilmer Difo 3
SSDanny Espinosa 157 · Stephen Drew 12 · Wilmer Difo 5
LFJayson Werth 131 · Ben Revere 25 · Chris Heisey 25
CFBen Revere 74 · Michael A. Taylor 64 · Trea Turner 45
RFBryce Harper 143 · Chris Heisey 16 · Brian Goodwin 8
DHJayson Werth 6 · Stephen Drew 1 · Chris Heisey 1
SPMax Scherzer 5.8 · Stephen Strasburg 4.2 · Tanner Roark 3.3 · Gio Gonzalez 2.7 · Joe Ross 2.5
BP★ Mark Melancon 47 · Blake Treinen 22 · Oliver Pérez 15 · Shawn Kelley 13 · Marc Rzepczynski 11 · Sammy Solís 9 · Matt Belisle 4 · Jonathan Papelbon 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2016 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Max Scherzer 31 FA-elig 345.8 22.1 -3.3
Daniel Murphy 31 FA-elig 1424.7 8.0 +7.1
Stephen Strasburg 27 FA-elig 244.2 10.4 +3.2
Wilson Ramos 28 FA-elig 1314.1 5.3 +7.9
Trea Turner 23 pre-arb 734.0 0.2 +12.7
Anthony Rendon 26 arb 1563.3 2.8 +7.9
Tanner Roark 29 arb 343.3 0.5 +10.1
Gio Gonzalez 30 FA-elig 322.7 12.0 -3.2
Joe Ross 23 pre-arb 232.5 0.5 +7.6
Bryce Harper 23 arb 1471.9 5.0 +1.3
Jayson Werth 37 FA-elig 1431.1 21.0 -17.3
Shawn Kelley 32 FA-elig 671.1 4.0 -0.5
Danny Espinosa 29 FA-elig 1571.0 2.9 +0.3
Mark Melancon↔ PIT 31 FA-elig 301.0 3.9 -0.8
Stephen Drew 33 FA-elig 700.8 3.0 -0.6
Sammy Solís 27 pre-arb 370.7 0.4 +1.9
Jose Lobatón 31 FA-elig 390.7 1.4 +0.8
Felipe Vázquez↔ PIT 24 pre-arb 470.7 0.3 +1.8
Matt Belisle 36 FA-elig 400.7 1.2 +0.9
Blake Treinen 28 pre-arb 730.5 0.5 +1.0
Pedro Severino 22 pre-arb 160.5 0.2 +1.4
Reynaldo López 22 – 110.5 0.1 +1.4
Michael A. Taylor 25 pre-arb 760.4 0.5 +0.9
Jonathan Papelbon 35 FA-elig 370.3 11.0 -9.9
Wilmer Difo 24 pre-arb 310.3 0.2 +0.9
Oliver Pérez 34 FA-elig 640.3 3.0 -2.0
Chris Heisey 31 FA-elig 830.2 1.2 -0.4
Mat Latos↔ CHW 28 FA-elig 60.2 1.1 -0.3
A.J. Cole 24 pre-arb 80.2 0.1 +0.6
Marc Rzepczynski↔ OAK 30 FA-elig 140.1 0.6 -0.1
Brian Goodwin 25 – 220.1 0.1 +0.3
Matt Grace 27 pre-arb 50.1 0.1 +0.3
Trevor Gott 23 pre-arb 90.1 0.1 +0.2
Rafael Martín 32 pre-arb 80.1 0.1 +0.2
Matthew den Dekker 28 – 190.1 – –
Spencer Kieboom 25 pre-arb 10.0 0.0 +0.1
Sean Burnett 33 FA-elig 10-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Koda Glover 23 – 19-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Yusmeiro Petit 31 FA-elig 36-0.2 2.5 -3.0
Clint Robinson 31 arb 104-0.6 0.5 -2.3
Lucas Giolito 21 – 6-0.6 0.1 -2.0
Ben Revere 28 FA-elig 103-0.8 6.2 -9.0
Ryan Zimmerman 31 FA-elig 115-0.9 14.0 -16.8

Key additions (new vs 2015)

PlayerfWAR
Daniel Murphy4.7
Shawn Kelley1.1
Mark Melancon1.0
Stephen Drew0.8
Matt Belisle0.7
Reynaldo López0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2015)

Player2015 fWAR
Jordan Zimmermann3.1
Denard Span1.6
Ian Desmond1.4
Doug Fister0.5
Matt Thornton0.4
Taylor Jordan0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2016 payroll
$147.7M
2017 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2016, 2016–2022. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2016; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Max Scherzer317.079$22.1MFREE AGENT
Jayson Werth3712.102$21.0MFREE AGENT
Ryan Zimmerman3110.032$14.0MFREE AGENT
Gio Gonzalez306.162$12.0MFREE AGENT
Jonathan Papelbon3511.000$11.0MFREE AGENT
Daniel Murphy316.109$8.0MFREE AGENT
Shawn Kelley326.128$4.0MFREE AGENT
Oliver Pérez3411.058$3.0MFREE AGENT
Stephen Drew339.038$3.0MFREE AGENT
Matt Belisle3610.019$1.2MFREE AGENT
Mat Latos286.079$1.1MFREE AGENT
Sean Burnett338.085$86kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Stephen Strasburg275.118$10.4MFREE AGENT
Ben Revere284.149$6.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilson Ramos285.047$5.3MFREE AGENT
Bryce Harper233.159$5.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Melancon315.098$3.9MFREE AGENT
Danny Espinosa294.113$2.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Yusmeiro Petit315.016$2.5MFREE AGENT
Jose Lobatón314.138$1.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Heisey315.042$1.2MFREE AGENT
Marc Rzepczynski305.132$590kFREE AGENT
Matthew den Dekker283.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (20)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Anthony Rendon262.130$2.8MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tanner Roark292.055$543kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Clint Robinson312.028$535kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Treinen281.065$525kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael A. Taylor252.000$525kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Ross230.094$514kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sammy Solís270.097$441kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Felipe Vázquez240.162$323kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trea Turner230.045$250kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilmer Difo240.051$164kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Severino220.034$161kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Koda Glover230.000$141kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
A.J. Cole240.047$122kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Goodwin250.000$119kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Reynaldo López220.000$116kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lucas Giolito210.000$108kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rafael Martín320.080$89kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Gott230.114$87kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Grace270.074$86kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Spencer Kieboom250.149$17kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Nationals 2016; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.