Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 1 | 1.1 | HOU | Carlos Correa | IF SS | 18 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 220 | — | — | Bobby Heck | Jeff Luhnow | 41.7 | -4.0 | 49.9±4.0 |
| 2012 | 2 | 1.2 | MIN | Byron Buxton | OF CF | 19 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 190 | — | — | Deron Johnson | Terry Ryan | 28.7 | +13.9 | 14.3±4.2 |
| 2012 | 3 | 1.3 | SEA | Mike Zunino | C C | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 235 | — | — | Tom McNamara | Jack Zduriencik | 17.4 | -7.0 | 24.4±3.7 |
| 2012 | 4 | 1.4 | BAL | Kevin Gausman | P P | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'2" | 205 | — | — | Gary Rajsich | Dan Duquette | 39.2 | +28.3 | 9.8±3.8 |
| 2012 | 5 | 1.5 | KCR | Kyle Zimmer | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 225 | — | — | Lonnie Goldberg | Dayton Moore | 0.2 | -7.4 | 8.5±3.9 |
| 2012 | 6 | 1.6 | CHC | Albert Almora Jr. | OF OF | 18 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 190 | — | — | Tim Wilken | Jed Hoyer | 3.0 | -4.5 | 8.0±3.9 |
| 2012 | 7 | 1.7 | SDP | Max Fried | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 6'4" | 190 | — | — | Jaron Madison | Josh Byrnes | 26.7 | +16.8 | 9.9±3.8 |
| 2012 | 8 | 1.8 | PIT | ✕ Mark Appel | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 220 | — | — | Joe Dellicarri | Neal Huntington | 0.0 | -7.6 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2012 | 9 | 1.9 | MIA | Andrew Heaney | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'2" | 200 | — | — | — | Michael Hill | 11.5 | +3.9 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2012 | 10 | 1.10 | COL | David Dahl | OF LF | 18 HS | L/R | 6'1" | 197 | — | — | Bill Schmidt | Daniel O'Dowd | 2.0 | -5.5 | 8.0±3.8 |
| 2012 | 11 | 1.11 | OAK | Addison Russell | IF SS | 18 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 200 | — | — | Eric Kubota | Billy Beane | 11.7 | +4.4 | 7.8±3.8 |
| 2012 | 12 | 1.12 | NYM | Gavin Cecchini | IF SS | 19 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 200 | — | — | Tommy Tanous | Sandy Alderson | -0.3 | -7.6 | 7.8±3.8 |
| 2012 | 13 | 1.13 | CHW | Courtney Hawkins | OF LF | 19 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 245 | — | — | — | Kenny Williams | 0.0 | -7.5 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2012 | 14 | 1.14 | CIN | Nick Travieso | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 235 | — | — | Chris Buckley | Walt Jocketty | 0.0 | -5.4 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2012 | 15 | 1.15 | CLE | Tyler Naquin | P P | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'1" | 202 | — | — | Brad Grant | Chris Antonetti | 3.6 | -4.0 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2012 | 16 | 1.16 | WSN | Lucas Giolito | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'6" | 245 | — | — | Kris Kline | Michael Rizzo | 15.8 | +10.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2012 | 17 | 1.17 | TOR | D.J. Davis | OF CF | 18 HS | L/R | 6'1" | 180 | — | — | Andrew Tinnish | Alex Anthopoulos | 0.0 | -7.5 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2012 | 18 | 1.18 | LAD | Corey Seager | IF SS | 18 HS | L/R | 6'4" | 215 | — | — | — | Ned Colletti | 41.5 | +37.0 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2012 | 19 | 1.19 | STL | Michael Wacha | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'6" | 215 | — | — | Dan Kantrovitz | John Mozeliak | 23.1 | +17.3 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2012 | 20 | 1.20 | SFG | Chris Stratton | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 205 | — | — | John Barr | Brian Sabean | 4.3 | -1.4 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2012 | 21 | 1.21 | ATL | Lucas Sims | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 213 | — | — | Tony Demacio | Frank Wren | 1.7 | -3.7 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2012 | 22 | 1.22 | TOR | Marcus Stroman | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 5'7" | 180 | — | — | Andrew Tinnish | Alex Anthopoulos | 24.9 | +19.2 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2012 | 23 | 1.23 | STL | James Ramsey | OF CF | 23 COLL | L/R | 6'0" | 200 | — | — | Dan Kantrovitz | John Mozeliak | 0.0 | -4.2 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 2012 | 24 | 1.24 | BOS | Deven Marrero | IF 3B | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 190 | — | — | Amiel Sawdaye | Ben Cherington | -1.3 | -11.5 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2012 | 25 | 1.25 | TBR | Richie Shaffer | IF 1B | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 230 | — | — | R J Harrison | Andrew Friedman | 0.3 | -10.0 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2012 | 26 | 1.26 | ARI | Stryker Trahan | C C | 18 HS | L/R | 6'0" | 232 | — | — | Ray Montgomery | Kevin Towers | 0.0 | -2.6 | 3.1±3.8 |
| 2012 | 27 | 1.27 | MIL | Clint Coulter | OF RF | 19 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 225 | — | — | Bruce Seid | Douglas Melvin | 0.0 | -2.4 | 2.4±3.7 |
| 2012 | 28 | 1.28 | MIL | Victor Roache | OF LF | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 225 | — | — | Bruce Seid | Douglas Melvin | 0.0 | -3.8 | 3.8±3.7 |
| 2012 | 29 | 1.29 | TEX | Lewis Brinson | OF CF | 18 HS | R/R | 6'5" | 212 | — | — | Kip Fagg | Jon Daniels | -3.5 | -5.9 | 2.4±3.7 |
| 2012 | 30 | 1.30 | NYY | Tyler Hensley | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 220 | — | — | Damon Oppenheimer | Brian Cashman | 0.0 | -2.9 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 2012 | 31 | 1.31 | BOS | Brian Johnson | P P | 22 COLL | L/L | 6'3" | 250 | — | — | Amiel Sawdaye | Ben Cherington | 0.5 | -2.3 | 3.0±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.