RRosternomics

Pirates PIT

GM: Neal Huntington

Overview

REBUILD ↗ rising
cheap & losing · year 9 in this regime · payroll 0.69× league · TAB -6.0
-6.0TAB — talent above budget22nd/30
+2.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)13th/30
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars21st/30
-5.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag17th/30
43%dead money %26th/30
0.488win %18th/30
23.5roster fWAR24th/30
-9surplus $M (value vs cost)15th/30
$68Mpayroll $M26th/30

Roster

CFAndrew McCutchen 156GStarling Marte 4GAlex Presley 4G
LFAlex Presley 81GStarling Marte 43GJose Tabata 32G
RFJose Tabata 77GGarrett Jones 66GTravis Snider 33G
SSClint Barmes 142GJordy Mercer 28GJosh Harrison 25G
2BNeil Walker 125GJosh Harrison 28GBrock Holt 14G
3BPedro Álvarez 145GJosh Harrison 14GYamaico Navarro 2G
1BGaby Sanchez 95GGarrett Jones 72GMatt Hague 16G
STARTERSA.J. Burnett 3.1WARJames McDonald 2.0WARJeff Karstens 1.6WARErik Bedard 1.3WARWandy Rodriguez 0.8WAR
CRod Barajas 99GMichael McKenry 81G
DHMatt Hague 4GGarrett Jones 4GJosh Harrison 1G
BULLPEN Joel Hanrahan 36svJason Grilli 32hTony Watson 16hChad Qualls 14hJuan Cruz 14hJared Hughes 12hChris Resop 8hHisanori Takahashi 4h
CRod Barajas 99 · Michael McKenry 81
1BGaby Sanchez 95 · Garrett Jones 72 · Matt Hague 16
2BNeil Walker 125 · Josh Harrison 28 · Brock Holt 14
3BPedro Álvarez 145 · Josh Harrison 14 · Yamaico Navarro 2
SSClint Barmes 142 · Jordy Mercer 28 · Josh Harrison 25
LFAlex Presley 81 · Starling Marte 43 · Jose Tabata 32
CFAndrew McCutchen 156 · Starling Marte 4 · Alex Presley 4
RFJose Tabata 77 · Garrett Jones 66 · Travis Snider 33
DHMatt Hague 4 · Garrett Jones 4 · Josh Harrison 1
SPA.J. Burnett 3.1 · James McDonald 2.0 · Jeff Karstens 1.6 · Erik Bedard 1.3 · Wandy Rodriguez 0.8
BP Joel Hanrahan 36 · Jason Grilli 32 · Tony Watson 16 · Chad Qualls 14 · Juan Cruz 14 · Jared Hughes 12 · Chris Resop 8 · Hisanori Takahashi 4

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2012 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Andrew McCutchen 25 arb 1577.3 0.5 +18.4
A.J. Burnett 35 FA-elig 313.1 16.5 -8.4
Pedro Álvarez 25 pre-arb 1492.5 0.7 +5.8
Neil Walker 26 arb 1292.4 0.5 +5.7
James McDonald 27 arb 332.0 0.5 +4.7
Jeff Karstens 29 FA-elig 191.6 3.1 +1.1
Garrett Jones 31 arb 1451.6 2.2 +1.9
Jason Grilli 35 FA-elig 641.3 1.1 +2.2
Erik Bedard 33 FA-elig 241.3 4.5 -1.2
Brad Lincoln↔ TOR 27 290.8
Wandy Rodriguez↔ HOU 33 FA-elig 130.8 3.8 -1.8
Kevin Correia 31 FA-elig 320.6 3.0 -1.4
Tony Watson 27 pre-arb 680.5 0.5 +0.9
Casey McGehee↔ NYY 29 arb 920.5 2.0 -0.7
Clint Barmes 33 FA-elig 1440.5 5.0 -3.7
Chris Resop 29 FA-elig 610.3 0.8 -0.1
Charlie Morton 28 arb 90.2 2.4 -1.9
Travis Snider↔ TOR 24 pre-arb 500.2 0.4 +0.2
Starling Marte 23 470.2 0.2 +0.4
Jordy Mercer 25 420.2 0.5 -0.0
Kyle McPherson 24 100.2
Gaby Sanchez↔ MIA 28 arb 500.2 0.2 +0.2
Chad Qualls↔ NYY 33 FA-elig 170.2 0.3 +0.1
Jeff Locke 24 pre-arb 80.1 0.5 -0.1
Chris Leroux 28 arb 100.1 0.5 -0.1
Justin Wilson 24 80.1 0.1 +0.1
Michael McKenry 27 pre-arb 880.0 0.5 -0.4
Bryan Morris 25 50.0 0.5 -0.4
Juan Cruz 33 FA-elig 430.0 1.2 -1.2
Rick Van Den Hurk 27 40.0 0.5 -0.4
Eric Fryer 26 60.0
Gorkys Hernández↔ MIA 24 250.0 0.2 -0.2
Daniel McCutchen 29 pre-arb 10.0 0.5 -0.5
Josh Harrison 24 pre-arb 104-0.0 0.5 -0.5
Jared Hughes 26 pre-arb 66-0.0 0.5 -0.5
Alex Presley 26 pre-arb 104-0.0 0.5 -0.5
Hisanori Takahashi↔ ANA 37 pre-arb 9-0.0 0.7 -0.9
Evan Meek 29 arb 12-0.1 0.9 -1.0
Doug Slaten 32 arb 10-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Chase d'Arnaud 25 pre-arb 8-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Brock Holt 24 24-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Matt Hague 26 pre-arb 30-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Jose Tabata 23 pre-arb 103-0.3 0.8 -1.4
Joel Hanrahan 30 arb 63-0.3 4.1 -4.8
Jeff Clement 28 pre-arb 23-0.3 0.5 -1.2
Drew Sutton↔ TBR 29 24-0.3
Yamaico Navarro 24 pre-arb 29-0.4 0.5 -1.5
Nate McLouth↔ BAL 30 FA-elig 34-0.6 0.7 -2.1
Rod Barajas 36 FA-elig 104-2.6 4.0 -10.8

Key additions (new vs 2011)

PlayerfWAR
A.J. Burnett3.1
Erik Bedard1.3
Wandy Rodriguez0.8
Casey McGehee0.5
Clint Barmes0.5
Travis Snider0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2011)

Player2011 fWAR
Chris Snyder0.9
Derrek Lee0.9
Jose Veras0.7
Daniel Moskos0.2
Pedro Ciriaco0.2
Garrett Olson0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2012 payroll
$68.4M

What the front office was committed to as of 2012, 2012–2018. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
A.J. Burnett3512.038$16.5M$16.5MFREE AGENT$8.5M
Clint Barmes336.112$5.0M$5.5M$2.0MFREE AGENT
Erik Bedard338.171$4.5MFREE AGENT
Rod Barajas3611.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Wandy Rodriguez336.105$3.8M$13.0M$13.0MFREE AGENT
Kevin Correia317.027$3.0MFREE AGENT
Juan Cruz338.121$1.2MFREE AGENT
Nate McLouth306.033$669kFREE AGENT
Chad Qualls337.058$326kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Joel Hanrahan304.065$4.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Karstens294.132$3.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Charlie Morton283.009$2.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey McGehee293.028$2.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Grilli355.016$1.1MFREE AGENT
Evan Meek293.143$875kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Resop293.038$850kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Leroux283.000$486kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Doug Slaten324.043$480kARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Morris255.011$480kFREE AGENT
Rick Van Den Hurk275.000$480kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (29)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Garrett Jones312.158$2.2MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Tabata231.117$750kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hisanori Takahashi372.000$741kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Álvarez251.085$700kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James McDonald272.080$502kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew McCutchen252.123$500kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Neil Walker261.166$500kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael McKenry270.136$485kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Watson270.101$484kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Harrison240.095$484kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Presley260.121$484kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yamaico Navarro241.001$483kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jared Hughes260.023$481kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chase d'Arnaud252.045$480kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Locke240.023$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Hague260.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel McCutchen292.026$480kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Clement281.109$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordy Mercer250.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Snider242.015$400kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gaby Sanchez282.062$230kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Starling Marte230.000$184kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gorkys Hernández240.000$171kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Wilson240.000$92kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brock Holt240.000$87kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Sutton292.074ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Lincoln271.075Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Fryer261.108Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle McPherson24

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Pirates 2012; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3