RRosternomics

White Sox CHW

GM: Kenny Williams

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.2× league · TAB +0.5
+0.5TAB — talent above budget15th/30
+0.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)17th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars15th/30
-3.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag5th/30
17%dead money %2nd/30
0.525win %14th/30
37.0roster fWAR14th/30
-23surplus $M (value vs cost)21st/30
$120Mpayroll $M9th/30

Roster

CFAlejandro De Aza 125GDewayne Wise 38GJordan Danks 14G
LFDayan Viciedo 131GDewayne Wise 53GJordan Danks 21G
RFAlex Rios 156GDewayne Wise 11GJordan Danks 7G
SSAlexei Ramirez 158GRay Olmedo 5G
2BGordon Beckham 149GOrlando Hudson 44GRay Olmedo 2G
3BKevin Youkilis 111GJose Lopez 50GBrent Morel 33G
1BPaul Konerko 105GAdam Dunn 52GKevin Youkilis 26G
STARTERSChris Sale 4.6WARJake Peavy 4.2WARGavin Floyd 1.9WARJose Quintana 1.6WARFrancisco Liriano 0.5WAR
CA.J. Pierzynski 126GTyler Flowers 49GHector Gimenez 3G
DHAdam Dunn 93GPaul Konerko 38GJose Lopez 13G
BULLPEN Addison Reed 29svMatt Thornton 26hJesse Crain 10hBrett Myers 8hNate Jones 7hHéctor Santiago 4hDonnie Veal 4hWill Ohman 1h
CA.J. Pierzynski 126 · Tyler Flowers 49 · Hector Gimenez 3
1BPaul Konerko 105 · Adam Dunn 52 · Kevin Youkilis 26
2BGordon Beckham 149 · Orlando Hudson 44 · Ray Olmedo 2
3BKevin Youkilis 111 · Jose Lopez 50 · Brent Morel 33
SSAlexei Ramirez 158 · Ray Olmedo 5
LFDayan Viciedo 131 · Dewayne Wise 53 · Jordan Danks 21
CFAlejandro De Aza 125 · Dewayne Wise 38 · Jordan Danks 14
RFAlex Rios 156 · Dewayne Wise 11 · Jordan Danks 7
DHAdam Dunn 93 · Paul Konerko 38 · Jose Lopez 13
SPChris Sale 4.6 · Jake Peavy 4.2 · Gavin Floyd 1.9 · Jose Quintana 1.6 · Francisco Liriano 0.5
BP Addison Reed 29 · Matt Thornton 26 · Jesse Crain 10 · Brett Myers 8 · Nate Jones 7 · Héctor Santiago 4 · Donnie Veal 4 · Will Ohman 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2012 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Chris Sale 23 pre-arb 304.6 0.5 +11.5
Jake Peavy 31 FA-elig 324.2 17.0 -6.1
Alex Rios 31 FA-elig 1574.0 12.0 -1.7
A.J. Pierzynski 35 FA-elig 1353.7 6.0 +3.5
Alejandro De Aza 28 arb 1312.5 0.5 +6.0
Paul Konerko 36 FA-elig 1442.1 12.0 -6.6
Adam Dunn 32 FA-elig 1512.1 14.0 -8.6
Alexei Ramirez 30 arb 1582.0 5.0 +0.1
Gavin Floyd 29 FA-elig 291.9 7.0 -2.2
Tyler Flowers 26 arb 521.7 0.5 +3.9
Kevin Youkilis↔ BOS 33 FA-elig 801.6 8.0 -3.8
Jose Quintana 23 251.6 0.3 +3.8
Matt Thornton 35 FA-elig 741.2 5.5 -2.3
Gordon Beckham 25 arb 1511.0 0.5 +2.1
Nate Jones 26 651.0 0.5 +2.0
Jesse Crain 30 FA-elig 510.8 4.5 -2.4
Addison Reed 23 pre-arb 620.8 0.5 +1.6
Dayan Viciedo 23 pre-arb 1470.8 2.5 -0.5
Dan Johnson 32 arb 140.7 0.2 +1.5
Dewayne Wise↔ NYY 34 arb 450.5 0.1 +1.4
Francisco Liriano↔ MIN 28 FA-elig 120.5 1.9 -0.6
Donnie Veal 27 pre-arb 240.5 0.5 +0.8
John Danks 27 arb 90.2 2.0 -1.4
Hector Gimenez 29 50.1
Brett Myers↔ HOU 31 FA-elig 350.1 5.5 -5.1
Eric Stults↔ SDP 32 20.1 0.0 +0.2
Dylan Axelrod 26 pre-arb 140.1 0.5 -0.3
Brian Bruney 30 arb 10.0 0.9 -0.8
Brian Omogrosso 28 pre-arb 170.0 0.5 -0.4
Jhan Mariñez 23 pre-arb 20.0 0.5 -0.4
Héctor Santiago 24 pre-arb 420.0 0.5 -0.5
Eduardo Escobar↔ MIN 23 pre-arb 36-0.0 0.3 -0.4
Deunte Heath 26 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Jordan Danks 25 50-0.1 0.3 -0.6
Leyson Septimo 26 21-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Jose Lopez↔ CLE 28 FA-elig 15-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Ray Olmedo 31 20-0.2
Pedro Hernandez 23 1-0.2
Brent Lillibridge↔ BOS 28 arb 49-0.2 0.2 -0.8
Kosuke Fukudome 35 arb 24-0.2 0.5 -1.0
Orlando Hudson↔ SDP 34 FA-elig 51-0.2 3.3 -3.9
Philip Humber 29 FA-elig 26-0.4 0.5 -1.4
Will Ohman 34 FA-elig 32-0.4 2.5 -3.6
Zach Stewart↔ BOS 25 pre-arb 18-0.5 0.4 -1.8
Brent Morel 25 pre-arb 35-0.7 0.5 -2.4

Key additions (new vs 2011)

PlayerfWAR
Kevin Youkilis1.6
Jose Quintana1.6
Nate Jones1.0
Dan Johnson0.7
Dewayne Wise0.5
Francisco Liriano0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2011)

Player2011 fWAR
Mark Buehrle3.2
Edwin Jackson2.7
Carlos Quentin2.5
Sergio Santos1.4
Ramon Castro0.2
Josh Kinney0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2012 payroll
$119.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 2012, 2012–2018. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Jake Peavy319.101$17.0M$8.2MFREE AGENT
Adam Dunn3210.074$14.0M$15.0M$12.1MFREE AGENT
Alex Rios317.130$12.0M$8.7MFREE AGENT
Paul Konerko3613.141$12.0M$13.5M$2.5MFREE AGENT
Kevin Youkilis337.093$8.0MFREE AGENT
Gavin Floyd2910.045$7.0M$9.5MFREE AGENT
A.J. Pierzynski3511.100$6.0MFREE AGENT
Matt Thornton357.129$5.5M$3.7MFREE AGENT
Brett Myers319.068$5.5MFREE AGENT
Jesse Crain307.039$4.5M$2.9MFREE AGENT
Orlando Hudson349.068$3.3MFREE AGENT
Will Ohman349.027$2.5MFREE AGENT
Nate Jones2610.063$480k$507k$545k$660k$900k$1.9M$4.0M
Jose Lopez288.000$148kFREE AGENT
Ray Olmedo319.000FREE AGENT
Hector Gimenez296.000$493kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Alexei Ramirez304.000$5.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
John Danks275.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Francisco Liriano285.104$1.9MFREE AGENT
Brian Bruney305.122$900kFREE AGENT
Philip Humber293.000$530kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kosuke Fukudome354.000$500kARB 3FREE AGENT
Alejandro De Aza285.000$495kFREE AGENT
Brent Lillibridge284.000$240kARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Johnson324.076$162kARB 3FREE AGENT
Dewayne Wise345.094$63kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Dayan Viciedo230.123$2.5MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gordon Beckham252.123$520kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Sale231.061$500kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brent Morel251.151$490kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Flowers260.148$483kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Deunte Heath260.078$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Addison Reed230.027$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dylan Axelrod261.143$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jhan Mariñez231.095$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Héctor Santiago240.024$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Leyson Septimo261.098$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Donnie Veal271.000$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Omogrosso280.056$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Stewart250.067$433kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Quintana230.000$349kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eduardo Escobar230.027$346kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Danks250.000$294kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Stults321.097$37kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Hernandez230.001Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = White Sox 2012; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3