TEX⇄TOR⇄WSN

TEXTEX Douglas Melvin net +$25.6M net +1.5

received −$4.8M−$24.0M ± $16M expected surplus · −$7.2M realized received 1.9 ± 2 expected · 1.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2000 odds 1% → 1% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

David Segui1B·33y·B/L

−$4.8M−$24.2M± $16M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 1.9± 2 exp WARrealized 1.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.9/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

1.36/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TORTOR Gord Ash net +$7.2M net +0.4

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $26M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · 1.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2000 odds 16% → 17% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brad Fullmer1B/DH·25y·L/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 1.8

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.27/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

-0.05/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Jim Beattie net −$32.8M net -1.9

received −$16.8M−$16.8M ± $16M expected surplus · −$32.8M realized received 1.1 ± 2 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2000 odds 1% → 1% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Lee Stevens1B·32y·L/L

−$17.0M−$17.0M± $16M exp surplusrealized −$32.8M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.25/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

0.81/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.