RRosternomics
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Nationals WSN

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GM: Michael Rizzo

Overview

REBUILD → steady
cheap & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.43× league · TAB -8.5
-8.5TAB — talent above budget24th/30
-0.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)18th/30
3.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars26th/30
-5.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag17th/30
46%dead money %20th/30
0.438win %25th/30
15.5roster fWAR27th/30
-4surplus $M (value vs cost)13th/30
$66Mpayroll $M28th/30

Roster

CFAlex Call 81GVictor Robles 36GJacob Young 32G
LFStone Garrett 77GCorey Dickerson 43GAlex Call 34G
RFLane Thomas 151GStone Garrett 12GAlex Call 9G
SSCJ Abrams 151GIldemaro Vargas 15GJeter Downs 4G
2BLuis García Jr. 121GJake Alu 24GMichael Chavis 22G
3BIldemaro Vargas 45GCarter Kieboom 26GMichael Chavis 7G
1BDominic Smith 151GJoey Meneses 19GMichael Chavis 9G
STARTERSJosiah Gray 1.6WARMacKenzie Gore 1.2WARPatrick Corbin 0.8WARJake Irvin 0.7WARJoan Adon 0.4WAR
CKeibert Ruiz 117GRiley Adams 40GDrew Millas 10G
DHJoey Meneses 131GKeibert Ruiz 16GCorey Dickerson 5G
BULLPEN★ Kyle Finnegan 28svHunter Harvey 19hCarl Edwards Jr. 13hMason Thompson 10hJordan Weems 7hJosé A. Ferrer 5hAndrés Machado 4hThaddeus Ward 0h
CKeibert Ruiz 117 · Riley Adams 40 · Drew Millas 10
1BDominic Smith 151 · Joey Meneses 19 · Michael Chavis 9
2BLuis García Jr. 121 · Jake Alu 24 · Michael Chavis 22
3BIldemaro Vargas 45 · Carter Kieboom 26 · Michael Chavis 7
SSCJ Abrams 151 · Ildemaro Vargas 15 · Jeter Downs 4
LFStone Garrett 77 · Corey Dickerson 43 · Alex Call 34
CFAlex Call 81 · Victor Robles 36 · Jacob Young 32
RFLane Thomas 151 · Stone Garrett 12 · Alex Call 9
DHJoey Meneses 131 · Keibert Ruiz 16 · Corey Dickerson 5
SPJosiah Gray 1.6 · MacKenzie Gore 1.2 · Patrick Corbin 0.8 · Jake Irvin 0.7 · Joan Adon 0.4
BP★ Kyle Finnegan 28 · Hunter Harvey 19 · Carl Edwards Jr. 13 · Mason Thompson 10 · Jordan Weems 7 · José A. Ferrer 5 · Andrés Machado 4 · Thaddeus Ward 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2023 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jeimer Candelario↔ CHC 29 FA-elig 993.0 3.5 +8.4
Lane Thomas 27 arb 1572.9 2.2 +9.3
CJ Abrams 22 pre-arb 1512.3 0.7 +8.2
Josiah Gray 25 pre-arb 301.6 0.7 +5.5
Hunter Harvey 28 arb 571.3 0.9 +4.3
Stone Garrett 27 pre-arb 891.3 0.7 +4.3
MacKenzie Gore 24 pre-arb 271.2 0.7 +4.0
Jacob Young 23 – 330.9 0.1 +3.4
Patrick Corbin 33 FA-elig 320.8 24.4 -21.1
Jake Irvin 26 – 240.7 0.6 +2.2
Alex Call 28 pre-arb 1280.6 0.7 +1.6
Robert Garcia↔ MIA 27 – 240.6 0.2 +2.0
Luis García Jr. 23 arb 1220.5 0.7 +1.2
Ildemaro Vargas 31 FA-elig 860.5 1.0 +1.0
Mason Thompson 25 pre-arb 510.5 0.7 +1.1
Joan Adon 24 pre-arb 120.4 0.3 +1.4
Carl Edwards Jr. 31 FA-elig 320.4 2.2 -0.6
Riley Adams 27 pre-arb 440.4 0.7 +0.9
Victor Robles 26 FA-elig 360.3 2.3 -1.2
Drew Millas 25 – 110.3 0.1 +1.0
Kyle Finnegan 31 arb 670.3 2.3 -1.2
Joe La Sorsa↔ TBR 25 – 230.2 0.2 +0.5
Michael Chavis 27 arb 480.1 1.0 -0.5
Jeter Downs 24 pre-arb 60.1 0.2 +0.1
Jose A. Ferrer 23 – 390.1 – –
Tanner Rainey 30 arb 10.0 1.5 -1.4
Jackson Rutledge 24 – 40.0 0.1 -0.0
Jordan Weems 30 pre-arb 51-0.0 0.5 -0.5
Rico Garcia↔ OAK 29 – 3-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Travis Blankenhorn 26 pre-arb 10-0.0 0.1 -0.3
Paolo Espino 36 – 3-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Carter Kieboom 25 pre-arb 27-0.1 0.3 -0.6
Anthony Banda 29 FA-elig 10-0.1 0.8 -1.1
Dominic Smith 28 FA-elig 153-0.1 2.0 -2.3
Hobie Harris 30 – 16-0.1 0.2 -0.8
Erasmo Ramírez↔ TBR 33 FA-elig 23-0.2 0.6 -1.2
Trevor Williams 31 FA-elig 30-0.2 6.0 -6.6
Derek Hill 27 pre-arb 13-0.2 0.1 -0.8
Joey Meneses 31 pre-arb 154-0.3 0.7 -1.8
Blake Rutherford 26 – 16-0.3 0.1 -1.5
Cory Abbott 27 pre-arb 22-0.4 0.4 -1.9
Jake Alu 26 – 51-0.4 0.3 -1.9
Thaddeus Ward 26 – 26-0.5 – –
Andrés Machado 30 pre-arb 44-0.5 0.4 -2.2
Amos Willingham 24 – 18-0.5 0.2 -2.2
Keibert Ruiz 24 arb 136-0.5 1.4 -3.5
Chad Kuhl 30 FA-elig 16-0.6 0.9 -3.3
Corey Dickerson 34 FA-elig 50-0.6 2.2 -4.7

Key additions (new vs 2022)

PlayerfWAR
Jeimer Candelario3.0
Stone Garrett1.3
MacKenzie Gore1.2
Jacob Young0.9
Jake Irvin0.7
Robert Garcia0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2022)

Player2022 fWAR
Josh Bell2.8
Juan Soto2.5
César Hernández0.5
Erick Fedde0.3
Sean Doolittle0.3
Yadiel Hernandez0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2023 payroll
$66.5M
2024 guaranteed
$6.4M

What the front office was committed to as of 2023, 2023–2029. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2023; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Patrick Corbin3310.105$24.4MFREE AGENT
Trevor Williams316.027$6.0MFREE AGENT
Corey Dickerson3410.000$2.2MFREE AGENT
Carl Edwards Jr.318.000$2.2MFREE AGENT
Keibert Ruiz241.064$1.4M$6.4M$5.4M$5.4M$5.4M$7.4M$9.4M
Chad Kuhl307.000$936kFREE AGENT
Erasmo Ramírez3311.000$605kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Jeimer Candelario295.038$3.5MFREE AGENT
Kyle Finnegan313.000$2.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Victor Robles264.033$2.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Lane Thomas273.014$2.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dominic Smith284.081$2.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tanner Rainey303.127$1.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Chavis273.089$1.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ildemaro Vargas313.007$975kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Harvey283.047$870kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis García Jr.233.000$739kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Rutherford263.037$139kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (30)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Anthony Banda292.137$850kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josiah Gray251.075$730kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Riley Adams271.050$729kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mason Thompson251.046$724kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
CJ Abrams220.130$724kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Meneses310.065$723kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
MacKenzie Gore241.000$723kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Call280.075$722kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Stone Garrett270.050$705kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Irvin260.000$585kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Weems301.108$461kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrés Machado301.089$403kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cory Abbott270.084$352kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carter Kieboom252.086$323kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Alu260.000$275kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joan Adon240.068$259kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe La Sorsa25–$228k
Robert Garcia270.000$223kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hobie Harris30–$213k
Amos Willingham240.000$209kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeter Downs240.024$163kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Young230.000$142kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Millas250.000$135kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Blankenhorn260.058$116kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paolo Espino362.075$97kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rico Garcia291.123$86kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jackson Rutledge240.000$73kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Derek Hill271.078$54kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Thaddeus Ward26–—
Jose A. Ferrer230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Nationals 2023; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.