RRosternomics
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Nationals WSN

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GM: Michael Rizzo

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.33× league · TAB +2.3
+2.3TAB — talent above budget11th/30
-2.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)18th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars17th/30
-2.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag4th/30
35%dead money %11th/30
0.512win %13th/30
40.1roster fWAR9th/30
-36surplus $M (value vs cost)19th/30
$162Mpayroll $M7th/30

Roster

CFMichael A. Taylor 96GDenard Span 61GBryce Harper 13G
LFJayson Werth 76GMichael A. Taylor 38GMatthew den Dekker 27G
RFBryce Harper 140GJayson Werth 14GClint Robinson 11G
SSIan Desmond 155GDanny Espinosa 8GTrea Turner 6G
2BDanny Espinosa 81GAnthony Rendon 59GDan Uggla 31G
3BYunel Escobar 134GAnthony Rendon 28GDanny Espinosa 16G
1BRyan Zimmerman 93GClint Robinson 44GTyler Moore 39G
STARTERSMax Scherzer 6.9WARGio Gonzalez 3.6WARStephen Strasburg 3.4WARJordan Zimmermann 3.1WARJoe Ross 1.0WAR
CWilson Ramos 125GJose Lobatón 42GPedro Severino 2G
DHYunel Escobar 3GClint Robinson 3GBryce Harper 1G
BULLPEN★ Drew Storen 29svMatt Thornton 18hCasey Janssen 13hBlake Treinen 10hAaron Barrett 10hFelipe Vázquez 6hDavid Carpenter 6hJonathan Papelbon 0h
CWilson Ramos 125 · Jose Lobatón 42 · Pedro Severino 2
1BRyan Zimmerman 93 · Clint Robinson 44 · Tyler Moore 39
2BDanny Espinosa 81 · Anthony Rendon 59 · Dan Uggla 31
3BYunel Escobar 134 · Anthony Rendon 28 · Danny Espinosa 16
SSIan Desmond 155 · Danny Espinosa 8 · Trea Turner 6
LFJayson Werth 76 · Michael A. Taylor 38 · Matthew den Dekker 27
CFMichael A. Taylor 96 · Denard Span 61 · Bryce Harper 13
RFBryce Harper 140 · Jayson Werth 14 · Clint Robinson 11
DHYunel Escobar 3 · Clint Robinson 3 · Bryce Harper 1
SPMax Scherzer 6.9 · Gio Gonzalez 3.6 · Stephen Strasburg 3.4 · Jordan Zimmermann 3.1 · Joe Ross 1.0
BP★ Drew Storen 29 · Matt Thornton 18 · Casey Janssen 13 · Blake Treinen 10 · Aaron Barrett 10 · Felipe Vázquez 6 · David Carpenter 6 · Jonathan Papelbon 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2015 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Bryce Harper 22 arb 1539.3 2.5 +26.9
Max Scherzer 30 FA-elig 346.9 17.1 +4.5
Gio Gonzalez 29 FA-elig 313.6 11.0 +0.2
Stephen Strasburg 26 arb 233.4 7.4 +3.5
Jordan Zimmermann 29 FA-elig 333.1 16.5 -6.9
Yunel Escobar 32 FA-elig 1392.3 5.0 +2.3
Danny Espinosa 28 arb 1181.8 1.8 +3.8
Denard Span 31 FA-elig 611.6 9.0 -4.0
Ian Desmond 29 FA-elig 1561.4 11.0 -6.5
Drew Storen 27 arb 581.2 5.7 -2.0
Anthony Rendon 25 pre-arb 801.1 2.5 +0.8
Joe Ross 22 – 171.0 0.3 +2.9
Aaron Barrett 27 pre-arb 400.9 0.5 +2.5
Felipe Vázquez 23 – 490.9 0.4 +2.4
Ryan Zimmerman 30 FA-elig 950.8 14.0 -11.4
Clint Robinson 30 arb 1260.6 0.5 +1.3
Doug Fister 31 FA-elig 290.5 11.4 -9.9
Matthew den Dekker 27 pre-arb 550.4 0.5 +0.9
Matt Thornton 38 FA-elig 600.4 3.5 -2.3
Taylor Jordan 26 pre-arb 40.4 0.1 +1.1
Blake Treinen 27 pre-arb 600.4 0.5 +0.6
Matt Grace 26 – 260.3 0.2 +0.7
Sammy Solís 26 – 180.2 0.1 +0.4
Emmanuel Burriss 30 arb 50.1 0.1 +0.3
A.J. Cole 23 – 30.1 0.1 +0.2
Dan Uggla 35 FA-elig 670.1 0.5 -0.2
Craig Stammen 31 FA-elig 50.0 2.2 -2.1
Casey Janssen 33 FA-elig 480.0 3.5 -3.4
Pedro Severino 21 – 20.0 0.1 +0.0
Trea Turner 22 – 270.0 0.1 -0.1
Jose Lobatón 30 FA-elig 44-0.0 1.2 -1.3
David Carpenter↔ NYY 29 arb 8-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Abel De Los Santos 22 – 2-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Tanner Roark 28 pre-arb 40-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Wilmer Difo 23 – 15-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Michael A. Taylor 24 pre-arb 138-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Taylor Hill 26 pre-arb 6-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Rafael Martín 31 pre-arb 13-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Jayson Werth 36 FA-elig 88-0.1 21.0 -21.4
Reed Johnson 38 FA-elig 17-0.2 1.0 -1.6
Xavier Cedeño↔ TBR 28 arb 5-0.2 0.0 -0.6
Jonathan Papelbon↔ PHI 34 FA-elig 22-0.2 4.8 -5.6
Wilson Ramos 27 arb 128-0.5 3.5 -5.1
Tyler Moore 28 arb 97-0.9 0.5 -3.4

Key additions (new vs 2014)

PlayerfWAR
Max Scherzer6.9
Yunel Escobar2.3
Joe Ross1.0
Felipe Vázquez0.9
Clint Robinson0.6
Matthew den Dekker0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2014)

Player2014 fWAR
Tyler Clippard1.5
Asdrúbal Cabrera1.0
Jerry Blevins0.8
Rafael Soriano0.8
Zach Walters0.2
Jeff Kobernus0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2015 payroll
$162.2M
2016 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2015, 2015–2021. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2015; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Jayson Werth3611.102$21.0MFREE AGENT
Max Scherzer306.079$17.1MFREE AGENT
Ryan Zimmerman309.032$14.0MFREE AGENT
Denard Span316.111$9.0MFREE AGENT
Yunel Escobar327.121$5.0MFREE AGENT
Jonathan Papelbon349.064$4.8MFREE AGENT
Casey Janssen338.063$3.5MFREE AGENT
Matt Thornton3810.129$3.5MFREE AGENT
Reed Johnson3811.145$1.0MFREE AGENT
Dan Uggla358.125$507kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Jordan Zimmermann295.154$16.5MFREE AGENT
Doug Fister315.058$11.4MFREE AGENT
Gio Gonzalez295.162$11.0MFREE AGENT
Ian Desmond295.027$11.0MFREE AGENT
Stephen Strasburg264.118$7.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Storen274.140$5.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilson Ramos274.047$3.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Craig Stammen314.160$2.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Espinosa283.113$1.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Lobatón303.138$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Carpenter293.016$347kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sammy Solís264.061$147kARB 3FREE AGENT
Emmanuel Burriss303.131$89kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (21)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Anthony Rendon251.130$2.5MCLUBPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryce Harper222.159$2.5MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tanner Roark281.055$530kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Clint Robinson302.028$525kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Moore282.018$518kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Barrett270.144$514kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matthew den Dekker272.000$513kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Treinen270.065$513kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael A. Taylor241.000$509kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Felipe Vázquez230.000$422kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Ross220.000$258kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Grace260.000$202kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilmer Difo230.000$139kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rafael Martín310.080$128kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
A.J. Cole230.000$125kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trea Turner220.000$122kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Jordan261.047$108kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Severino210.000$92kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Xavier Cedeño281.060$39kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Hill260.030$31kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Abel De Los Santos22–$11k

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Nationals 2015; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.