WSN⇄OAK

WSNWSN Michael Rizzo net +$15.2M net +2.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $11M expected surplus · +$9.6M realized received 1.4 ± 1 expected · 2.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2015 odds 32% → 42% (+10.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Yunel Escobar3B/SS·32y·R/R

−$0.2M−$0.2M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$9.6M 1.4± 1 exp WARrealized 2.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.9/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

1.38/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$15.2M net -2.0

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $6M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 0.8 ± 1 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2015 odds 3% → 2% (-1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tyler ClippardP·30y·R/R

+$2.2M+$2.2M± $6M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 0.8± 1 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

0.84/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.