RRosternomics

Blue Jays TOR

GM: Dave Stewart

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.15× league · TAB -2.3
-2.3TAB — talent above budget18th/30
-3.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)18th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars8th/30
-1.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag1st/30
22%dead money %9th/30
0.494win %17th/30
33.7roster fWAR16th/30
-22surplus $M (value vs cost)22nd/30
$71Mpayroll $M11th/30

Roster

CFJosé Cruz Jr. 133GVernon Wells 27GBrian Simmons 12G
LFShannon Stewart 142GBrian Simmons 19GChris Latham 15G
RFRaúl Mondesi 149GChris Latham 14GBrian Simmons 7G
SSAlex Gonzalez 154GCésar Izturis 6GChris Woodward 4G
2BHomer Bush 78GJeff Frye 47GCésar Izturis 41G
3BFelipe López 47GLuis Lopez 28GJeff Frye 27G
1BCarlos Delgado 161GLuis Lopez 5GChris Woodward 2G
STARTERSRoy Halladay 4.0WARKelvim Escobar 2.7WARChris Carpenter 2.3WAREsteban Loaiza 2.1WARBrandon Lyon 1.1WAR
CDarrin Fletcher 129GAlberto Castillo 66GJosh Phelps 7G
DHBrad Fullmer 135GShannon Stewart 11GTony Fernández 3G
BULLPEN Billy Koch 36svPaul Quantrill 19hDan Plesac 16hPedro Borbón 12hBob File 5hScott Eyre 3hJohn Frascatore 1hMatt DeWitt 0h
CDarrin Fletcher 129 · Alberto Castillo 66 · Josh Phelps 7
1BCarlos Delgado 161 · Luis Lopez 5 · Chris Woodward 2
2BHomer Bush 78 · Jeff Frye 47 · César Izturis 41
3BFelipe López 47 · Luis Lopez 28 · Jeff Frye 27
SSAlex Gonzalez 154 · César Izturis 6 · Chris Woodward 4
LFShannon Stewart 142 · Brian Simmons 19 · Chris Latham 15
CFJosé Cruz Jr. 133 · Vernon Wells 27 · Brian Simmons 12
RFRaúl Mondesi 149 · Chris Latham 14 · Brian Simmons 7
DHBrad Fullmer 135 · Shannon Stewart 11 · Tony Fernández 3
SPRoy Halladay 4.0 · Kelvim Escobar 2.7 · Chris Carpenter 2.3 · Esteban Loaiza 2.1 · Brandon Lyon 1.1
BP Billy Koch 36 · Paul Quantrill 19 · Dan Plesac 16 · Pedro Borbón 12 · Bob File 5 · Scott Eyre 3 · John Frascatore 1 · Matt DeWitt 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2001 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Roy Halladay 24 174.0 0.7 +5.8
Carlos Delgado 29 FA-elig 1624.0 13.7 -7.3
Shannon Stewart 27 FA-elig 1553.6 2.2 +3.7
Kelvim Escobar 25 arb 592.7 1.5 +2.9
Chris Carpenter 26 arb 342.3 2.6 +1.2
Esteban Loaiza 29 FA-elig 362.1 4.2 -0.9
Alex Gonzalez 28 FA-elig 1542.1 4.2 -0.9
José Cruz Jr. 27 arb 1461.9 2.4 +0.6
Raul Mondesi 30 FA-elig 1491.8 11.5 -8.6
Paul Quantrill 32 FA-elig 801.7 1.8 +0.9
Joey Hamilton↔ CIN 30 FA-elig 221.5 6.1 -3.7
Dan Plesac 39 FA-elig 621.2 2.2 -0.3
Brandon Lyon 21 111.1
Homer Bush 28 arb 781.0 2.5 -1.0
Vernon Wells 22 300.6
Felipe Lopez 21 490.6
Chris Michalak↔ TEX 30 arb 240.6 0.1 +0.8
Chris Latham 28 430.5
Darrin Fletcher 34 FA-elig 1340.5 3.5 -2.8
Scott Eyre 29 170.3
Pedro Borbon Jr. 33 FA-elig 710.3 1.5 -1.0
Billy Koch 26 pre-arb 690.2 0.7 -0.3
Brad Fullmer 26 arb 1460.2 2.5 -2.2
Pasqual Coco 23 70.2
Bob File 24 600.1
Cesar Izturis 21 460.1
Steve Parris 33 FA-elig 190.1 2.3 -2.1
Brian Bowles 24 20.1
Tony Batista↔ BAL 27 arb 720.1 1.5 -1.4
Ryan Freel 25 pre-arb 90.0 0.2 -0.2
Matt DeWitt 23 16-0.0
Tony Fernandez↔ MIL 39 FA-elig 48-0.0 0.4 -0.4
Josh Phelps 23 8-0.1
Kevin Beirne 27 pre-arb 5-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Alberto Castillo 31 FA-elig 66-0.1 0.7 -0.9
Chris Woodward 25 pre-arb 37-0.1 0.2 -0.5
John Frascatore 31 12-0.2
Lance Painter↔ MIL 33 FA-elig 10-0.2 0.4 -0.8
Jeff Frye 34 FA-elig 74-0.3 1.0 -1.4
Brian Simmons 27 arb 60-0.3 0.2 -0.7
Luis Lopez 27 41-0.3

Key additions (new vs 2000)

PlayerfWAR
Dan Plesac1.2
Brandon Lyon1.1
Felipe Lopez0.6
Chris Michalak0.6
Chris Latham0.5
Scott Eyre0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2000)

Player2000 fWAR
David Wells6.2
Frank Castillo1.9
Dave Martinez0.8
Craig Grebeck0.7
Steve Trachsel0.4
Pete Munro0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2001 payroll
$71.2M

What the front office was committed to as of 2001, 2001–2007. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2001200220032004200520062007
Carlos Delgado298.000$13.7M$19.4M$18.7M$19.7MFREE AGENT
Raul Mondesi308.000$11.5M$5.7MFREE AGENT
Joey Hamilton307.000$6.1MFREE AGENT
Alex Gonzalez287.000$4.2MFREE AGENT
Esteban Loaiza296.000$4.2M$6.0MFREE AGENT
Darrin Fletcher3412.000$3.5M$3.8MFREE AGENT
Steve Parris336.000$2.3M$3.8MFREE AGENT
Dan Plesac3915.000$2.2M$1.5MFREE AGENT
Shannon Stewart276.000$2.2M$4.2M$3.2MFREE AGENT
Paul Quantrill329.000$1.8MFREE AGENT
Pedro Borbon Jr.339.000$1.5M$1.3MFREE AGENT
Jeff Frye349.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Alberto Castillo316.000$725kFREE AGENT
Lance Painter338.000$435kFREE AGENT
Tony Fernandez3918.000$379kFREE AGENT
John Frascatore317.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2001200220032004200520062007
Chris Carpenter264.000$2.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Homer Bush284.000$2.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Fullmer264.000$2.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
José Cruz Jr.274.000$2.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Batista275.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Kelvim Escobar254.000$1.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Roy Halladay243.000$650kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Simmons273.000$225kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Michalak303.000$137kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Eyre294.000ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Latham284.000ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2001200220032004200520062007
Billy Koch262.000$733kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Woodward252.000$223kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Beirne271.000$223kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Freel250.000$200kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt DeWitt23
Felipe Lopez210.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Phelps231.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vernon Wells222.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pasqual Coco23
Cesar Izturis210.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Lopez270.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bob File240.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Bowles24
Brandon Lyon210.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Blue Jays 2001; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3