TOR⇄CHW

TORTOR Dave Stewart net −$0.8M net +0.0

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $28M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.0 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Matt DeWittP·23y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $28M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#267 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.3/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

-0.06/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net +$0.8M net +0.0

received +$6.4M−$2.4M ± $9M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.6 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Mike WilliamsP·32y·R/R

+$6.4M−$2.1M± $9M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.6± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.43/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.87 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.