RRosternomics
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Rays TBR

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GM: Andrew Friedman

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.32× league · TAB +6.8
+6.8TAB — talent above budget7th/30
-1.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)19th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars10th/30
-8.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag29th/30
65%dead money %29th/30
0.407win %30th/30
26.8roster fWAR21st/30
+30surplus $M (value vs cost)1st/30
$26Mpayroll $M30th/30

Roster

CFB.J. Upton 78GElijah Dukes 38GDelmon Young 29G
LFCarl Crawford 139GJonny Gomes 26GElijah Dukes 3G
RFDelmon Young 133GJonny Gomes 32GGreg Norton 6G
SSBrendan Harris 87GJosh Wilson 57GBen Zobrist 30G
2BB.J. Upton 48GBrendan Harris 47GTy Wigginton 39G
3BAkinori Iwamura 120GJoel Guzman 8GJosh Wilson 8G
1BCarlos Pena 144GGreg Norton 3GJoel Guzman 2G
STARTERSScott Kazmir 4.9WARJames Shields 4.0WARAndy Sonnanstine 1.9WAREdwin Jackson 1.2WARJ.P. Howell 0.5WAR
CDioner Navarro 112GJosh Paul 35GRaul Casanova 23G
DHGreg Norton 52GJonny Gomes 45GTy Wigginton 15G
BULLPEN★ Al Reyes 26svDan Wheeler 18hGary Glover 11hShawn Camp 11hBrian Stokes 8hJay Witasick 4hScott Dohmann 4hJuan Salas 2h
CDioner Navarro 112 · Josh Paul 35 · Raul Casanova 23
1BCarlos Pena 144 · Greg Norton 3 · Joel Guzman 2
2BB.J. Upton 48 · Brendan Harris 47 · Ty Wigginton 39
3BAkinori Iwamura 120 · Joel Guzman 8 · Josh Wilson 8
SSBrendan Harris 87 · Josh Wilson 57 · Ben Zobrist 30
LFCarl Crawford 139 · Jonny Gomes 26 · Elijah Dukes 3
CFB.J. Upton 78 · Elijah Dukes 38 · Delmon Young 29
RFDelmon Young 133 · Jonny Gomes 32 · Greg Norton 6
DHGreg Norton 52 · Jonny Gomes 45 · Ty Wigginton 15
SPScott Kazmir 4.9 · James Shields 4.0 · Andy Sonnanstine 1.9 · Edwin Jackson 1.2 · J.P. Howell 0.5
BP★ Al Reyes 26 · Dan Wheeler 18 · Gary Glover 11 · Shawn Camp 11 · Brian Stokes 8 · Jay Witasick 4 · Scott Dohmann 4 · Juan Salas 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2007 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Carlos Pena 29 FA-elig 1485.9 0.8 +11.9
Scott Kazmir 23 arb 344.9 0.4 +10.1
B.J. Upton 22 arb 1294.5 0.4 +9.4
James Shields 25 pre-arb 314.0 0.4 +8.3
Carl Crawford 25 arb 1433.3 4.1 +3.0
Akinori Iwamura 28 pre-arb 1233.1 1.8 +4.8
Brendan Harris 26 arb 1372.4 0.4 +4.7
Andy Sonnanstine 24 – 221.9 – –
Edwin Jackson 23 arb 321.2 0.4 +2.3
Jorge Velandia 32 – 140.9 – –
Jonny Gomes 26 arb 1070.6 0.4 +0.9
J.P. Howell 24 – 100.5 0.4 +0.6
Jason Hammel 24 – 240.4 0.4 +0.5
Ty Wigginton↔ HOU 29 arb 980.4 1.8 -0.9
Raul Casanova 34 – 290.3 – –
Grant Balfour↔ MIL 29 – 220.2 0.4 +0.1
Dan Wheeler↔ HOU 29 FA-elig 250.2 0.8 -0.3
Jon Switzer 27 arb 210.1 0.4 -0.3
Scott Dohmann 29 – 310.0 – –
Justin Ruggiano 25 – 7-0.0 – –
Al Reyes 37 FA-elig 61-0.1 0.8 -0.9
Jae Kuk Ryu 24 pre-arb 17-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Jeff Ridgway 26 – 3-0.1 – –
Dioner Navarro 23 arb 119-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Josh Paul 32 FA-elig 35-0.2 0.6 -1.0
Jae Weong Seo 30 arb 11-0.2 1.2 -1.5
Elijah Dukes 23 pre-arb 52-0.2 0.4 -0.7
Shawn Riggans 26 – 3-0.2 – –
Joel Guzman 22 – 16-0.2 – –
Delmon Young 21 pre-arb 162-0.2 1.3 -1.8
Rocco Baldelli 25 arb 35-0.2 0.8 -1.3
Juan Salas 28 pre-arb 34-0.2 0.4 -0.9
Gary Glover 30 FA-elig 67-0.2 0.6 -1.1
Jay Witasick↔ OAK 34 FA-elig 20-0.3 0.8 -1.4
Greg Norton 34 FA-elig 75-0.3 0.8 -1.5
Casey Fossum 29 FA-elig 40-0.3 2.7 -3.4
Tim Corcoran 29 – 9-0.4 – –
Ruddy Lugo↔ OAK 27 pre-arb 11-0.4 0.1 -1.0
Shawn Camp 31 arb 50-0.4 0.4 -1.3
Dustan Mohr 31 – 7-0.4 – –
Josh Wilson↔ WSN 26 pre-arb 90-0.4 0.4 -1.2
Chad Orvella 26 – 10-0.5 – –
Jorge Cantu↔ CIN 25 – 25-0.6 – –
Brian Stokes 27 pre-arb 59-0.8 0.4 -2.0
Ben Zobrist 26 pre-arb 31-1.1 0.4 -2.8

Key additions (new vs 2006)

PlayerfWAR
Carlos Pena5.9
Akinori Iwamura3.1
Brendan Harris2.4
Andy Sonnanstine1.9
Jorge Velandia0.9
Raul Casanova0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2006)

Player2006 fWAR
Julio Lugo2.4
Aubrey Huff1.1
Mark Hendrickson1.1
Tyler Walker0.7
Joey Gathright0.5
Russell Branyan0.5

Current & Historical Payroll

2007 payroll
$26.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2007, 2007–2013. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Casey Fossum296.000$2.7MFREE AGENT
Jay Witasick3411.000$833kFREE AGENT
Greg Norton3411.000$800kFREE AGENT
Carlos Pena296.000$800k$6.0M$8.0M$10.1MFREE AGENT$7.2M
Al Reyes3712.000$750k$2.3MFREE AGENT
Dan Wheeler298.000$750k$2.9M$3.2M$3.5MFREE AGENT
Josh Paul328.000$625kFREE AGENT
Gary Glover308.000$600k$663kFREE AGENT
Grant Balfour296.000$365k$500k$1.4M$2.0MFREE AGENT
Raul Casanova3411.000—FREE AGENT
Jorge Velandia3210.000—FREE AGENT
Dustan Mohr316.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Carl Crawford255.000$4.1MFREE AGENT
Ty Wigginton295.000$1.8MFREE AGENT
Jae Weong Seo305.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Rocco Baldelli254.000$750kARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Kazmir233.000$424kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn Camp313.000$411kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonny Gomes264.000$408kARB 3FREE AGENT
Dioner Navarro233.000$400kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edwin Jackson234.000$392kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Switzer274.000$391kARB 3FREE AGENT
B.J. Upton223.000$387kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brendan Harris263.000$386kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Cantu253.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Dohmann293.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Akinori Iwamura280.000$1.8MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Delmon Young211.000$1.3MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Shields251.000$395kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Zobrist261.000$383kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Stokes271.000$383kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jae Kuk Ryu241.000$382kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Salas281.000$382kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.P. Howell242.000$380kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Hammel241.000$380kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Elijah Dukes230.000$380kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Wilson262.000$360kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ruddy Lugo271.000$117kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joel Guzman22–—
Tim Corcoran29–—
Chad Orvella26–—
Justin Ruggiano250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Ridgway26–—
Shawn Riggans261.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andy Sonnanstine240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Rays 2007; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.