RRosternomics
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Rays TBR

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GM: Andrew Friedman

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.39× league · TAB -3.4
-3.4TAB — talent above budget21st/30
-8.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)27th/30
4.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars26th/30
-8.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag29th/30
52%dead money %28th/30
0.377win %30th/30
19.1roster fWAR29th/30
+8surplus $M (value vs cost)5th/30
$29Mpayroll $M29th/30

Roster

CFRocco Baldelli 91GDamon Hollins 33GCarl Crawford 2G
LFCarl Crawford 148GDamon Hollins 18GTy Wigginton 5G
RFDamon Hollins 78GRussell Branyan 54GDelmon Young 30G
SSBen Zobrist 52GTomás Pérez 36GLuis Ordaz 1G
2BJorge Cantu 103GTy Wigginton 43GTomás Pérez 22G
3BB.J. Upton 50GTomás Pérez 40GTy Wigginton 34G
1BTravis Lee 112GTy Wigginton 45GGreg Norton 25G
STARTERSScott Kazmir 3.6WARJames Shields 1.8WARJ.P. Howell 0.7WARTim Corcoran 0.5WARCasey Fossum 0.4WAR
CDioner Navarro 78GJosh Paul 52GShawn Riggans 8G
DHJonny Gomes 101GGreg Norton 31GKevin Witt 10G
BULLPEN★ Tyler Walker 10svShawn Camp 12hRuddy Lugo 8hDan Miceli 6hTravis Harper 5hJon Switzer 5hBrian Meadows 4hChad Harville 2h
CDioner Navarro 78 · Josh Paul 52 · Shawn Riggans 8
1BTravis Lee 112 · Ty Wigginton 45 · Greg Norton 25
2BJorge Cantu 103 · Ty Wigginton 43 · Tomás Pérez 22
3BB.J. Upton 50 · Tomás Pérez 40 · Ty Wigginton 34
SSBen Zobrist 52 · Tomás Pérez 36 · Luis Ordaz 1
LFCarl Crawford 148 · Damon Hollins 18 · Ty Wigginton 5
CFRocco Baldelli 91 · Damon Hollins 33 · Carl Crawford 2
RFDamon Hollins 78 · Russell Branyan 54 · Delmon Young 30
DHJonny Gomes 101 · Greg Norton 31 · Kevin Witt 10
SPScott Kazmir 3.6 · James Shields 1.8 · J.P. Howell 0.7 · Tim Corcoran 0.5 · Casey Fossum 0.4
BP★ Tyler Walker 10 · Shawn Camp 12 · Ruddy Lugo 8 · Dan Miceli 6 · Travis Harper 5 · Jon Switzer 5 · Brian Meadows 4 · Chad Harville 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2006 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Carl Crawford 24 arb 1514.7 2.6 +6.7
Scott Kazmir 22 pre-arb 243.6 0.4 +6.8
Rocco Baldelli 24 arb 923.4 2.0 +4.8
Julio Lugo↔ LAD 30 FA-elig 732.4 3.0 +1.9
James Shields 24 – 211.8 – –
Ty Wigginton 28 arb 1221.3 0.7 +1.9
Greg Norton 33 – 981.2 – –
Aubrey Huff↔ HOU 29 FA-elig 631.1 3.3 -1.2
Mark Hendrickson↔ LAD 32 arb 131.1 0.8 +1.3
Delmon Young 20 – 301.0 0.5 +1.5
Tyler Walker↔ SFG 30 arb 200.7 0.3 +1.2
J.P. Howell 23 – 80.7 0.3 +1.1
Ruddy Lugo 26 pre-arb 640.6 0.3 +0.9
Tim Corcoran 28 – 210.5 – –
Joey Gathright↔ KCR 25 pre-arb 550.5 0.1 +0.9
Russell Branyan↔ SDP 30 – 640.5 – –
Brian Stokes 26 – 50.4 – –
Shawn Camp 30 pre-arb 750.4 0.3 +0.5
Casey Fossum 28 arb 250.4 2.0 -1.2
Doug Waechter 25 arb 110.4 0.4 +0.4
Jason Hammel 23 – 90.3 0.3 +0.3
Dioner Navarro↔ LAD 22 pre-arb 560.2 0.2 +0.1
Edwin Jackson 22 – 230.1 0.3 -0.1
Juan Salas 27 – 80.1 – –
Sean Burroughs 25 arb 80.1 1.5 -1.3
Travis Harper 30 FA-elig 300.0 0.8 -0.8
Luis Ordaz 30 FA-elig 1-0.0 0.4 -0.4
Jae Weong Seo↔ LAD 29 arb 17-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Jesus Colome 28 arb 1-0.0 0.8 -0.9
Shawn Riggans 25 – 10-0.0 – –
Jason Childers 31 pre-arb 5-0.0 0.3 -0.4
Chad Harville 29 – 32-0.0 – –
Josh Paul 31 FA-elig 58-0.2 0.5 -0.8
Jonny Gomes 25 arb 117-0.2 0.4 -0.7
Seth McClung 25 arb 39-0.2 0.3 -0.7
Scott Dunn 28 – 7-0.2 – –
Dan Miceli 35 FA-elig 33-0.3 0.7 -1.2
Jon Switzer 26 – 40-0.3 – –
B.J. Upton 21 – 50-0.4 – –
Travis Lee 31 FA-elig 114-0.4 2.5 -3.2
Tomas Perez 32 – 99-0.5 – –
Brian Meadows 30 FA-elig 53-0.5 0.6 -1.6
Damon Hollins 32 FA-elig 121-0.6 0.3 -1.5
Toby Hall↔ LAD 30 FA-elig 64-0.6 1.7 -2.8
Nick Green↔ NYY 27 pre-arb 17-0.6 0.1 -1.2
Ben Zobrist 25 – 52-0.8 – –
Chad Orvella 25 – 22-0.8 – –
Kevin Witt 30 – 19-0.9 – –
Jorge Cantu 24 pre-arb 107-1.0 0.4 -2.3

Key additions (new vs 2005)

PlayerfWAR
Rocco Baldelli3.4
James Shields1.8
Ty Wigginton1.3
Greg Norton1.2
Delmon Young1.0
Tyler Walker0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2005)

Player2005 fWAR
Alex Gonzalez2.1
Eduardo Perez0.5
Danys Baez0.4
Chris Singleton0.3
Joe Borowski0.2
Josh Phelps0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2006 payroll
$29.4M

What the front office was committed to as of 2006, 2006–2012. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Aubrey Huff296.000$3.3MFREE AGENT
Julio Lugo306.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Travis Lee318.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Toby Hall306.000$1.7MFREE AGENT
Travis Harper306.000$850kFREE AGENT
Dan Miceli3513.000$650kFREE AGENT
Brian Meadows308.000$600kFREE AGENT
Josh Paul317.000$475k$625kFREE AGENT
Luis Ordaz309.000$375kFREE AGENT
Damon Hollins328.000$346kFREE AGENT
Greg Norton3310.000—$800kFREE AGENT
Tomas Perez3211.000—FREE AGENT
Russell Branyan308.000—FREE AGENT
Chad Harville297.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Carl Crawford244.000$2.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Fossum285.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Rocco Baldelli243.000$2.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Burroughs254.000$1.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Hendrickson324.000$818kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesus Colome285.000$815kFREE AGENT
Ty Wigginton284.000$675kARB 3FREE AGENT
Doug Waechter253.000$356kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonny Gomes253.000$356kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Seth McClung253.000$343kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edwin Jackson223.000$327kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Walker304.000$298kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jae Weong Seo294.000$165kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Switzer263.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (21)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Delmon Young200.000$500kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Kazmir222.000$372kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Cantu242.000$356kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn Camp302.000$335kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.P. Howell231.000$330kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Childers310.000$327kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Hammel230.000$327kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ruddy Lugo260.000$327kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dioner Navarro222.000$230kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Gathright252.000$138kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Green272.000$96kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Witt30–—
Brian Stokes260.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
B.J. Upton212.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Dunn28–—
Tim Corcoran28–—
Chad Orvella25–—
James Shields240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Zobrist250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn Riggans250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Salas270.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Rays 2006; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.