RRosternomics
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Cardinals STL

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GM: John Mozeliak

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.15× league · TAB -8.2
-8.2TAB — talent above budget27th/30
-5.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)23rd/30
4.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars28th/30
-6.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag24th/30
34%dead money %19th/30
0.481win %18th/30
27.8roster fWAR19th/30
-34surplus $M (value vs cost)25th/30
$95Mpayroll $M10th/30

Roster

CFJim Edmonds 103GSo Taguchi 63GRick Ankiel 22G
LFChris Duncan 99GRyan Ludwick 49GSo Taguchi 41G
RFJuan Encarnacion 74GRyan Ludwick 41GRick Ankiel 27G
SSDavid Eckstein 114GAaron Miles 40GBrendan Ryan 28G
2BAaron Miles 85GAdam Kennedy 79GBrendan Ryan 17G
3BScott Rolen 112GRussell Branyan 34GScott Spiezio 27G
1BAlbert Pujols 154GMiguel Cairo 24GChris Duncan 11G
STARTERSAdam Wainwright 4.6WARBraden Looper 1.7WARKip Wells 1.6WARTodd Wellemeyer 0.5WARJoel Pineiro 0.4WAR
CYadier Molina 107GGary Bennett 52GKelly Stinnett 26G
DHScott Spiezio 6GChris Duncan 3G
BULLPEN★ Jason Isringhausen 32svRyan Franklin 25hRandy Flores 14hRuss Springer 10hTyler Johnson 6hTroy Percival 4hKelvin Jimenez 1hAndy Cavazos 0h
CYadier Molina 107 · Gary Bennett 52 · Kelly Stinnett 26
1BAlbert Pujols 154 · Miguel Cairo 24 · Chris Duncan 11
2BAaron Miles 85 · Adam Kennedy 79 · Brendan Ryan 17
3BScott Rolen 112 · Russell Branyan 34 · Scott Spiezio 27
SSDavid Eckstein 114 · Aaron Miles 40 · Brendan Ryan 28
LFChris Duncan 99 · Ryan Ludwick 49 · So Taguchi 41
CFJim Edmonds 103 · So Taguchi 63 · Rick Ankiel 22
RFJuan Encarnacion 74 · Ryan Ludwick 41 · Rick Ankiel 27
DHScott Spiezio 6 · Chris Duncan 3
SPAdam Wainwright 4.6 · Braden Looper 1.7 · Kip Wells 1.6 · Todd Wellemeyer 0.5 · Joel Pineiro 0.4
BP★ Jason Isringhausen 32 · Ryan Franklin 25 · Randy Flores 14 · Russ Springer 10 · Tyler Johnson 6 · Troy Percival 4 · Kelvin Jimenez 1 · Andy Cavazos 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2007 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Albert Pujols 27 FA-elig 1587.7 12.9 +3.6
Adam Wainwright 25 pre-arb 374.6 0.4 +9.4
Scott Rolen 32 FA-elig 1122.4 12.3 -7.2
Ryan Ludwick 28 – 1202.1 0.4 +4.2
Chris Duncan 26 pre-arb 1271.7 0.4 +3.3
Braden Looper 32 FA-elig 311.7 4.5 -0.9
Kip Wells 30 FA-elig 351.6 4.0 -0.6
Rick Ankiel 27 – 471.5 0.1 +3.1
Yadier Molina 24 arb 1111.4 0.5 +2.5
Russ Springer 38 FA-elig 761.4 1.8 +1.2
Brendan Ryan 25 – 671.2 0.4 +2.1
Randy Flores 31 arb 701.1 0.8 +1.6
David Eckstein 32 FA-elig 1170.7 4.6 -3.0
Ryan Franklin 34 FA-elig 690.7 1.0 +0.5
Jason Isringhausen 34 FA-elig 630.6 8.8 -7.4
Troy Percival 37 – 340.6 – –
Todd Wellemeyer↔ KCR 28 arb 200.5 0.4 +0.8
Jim Edmonds 37 FA-elig 1170.5 9.6 -8.4
So Taguchi 37 arb 1300.4 0.9 +0.0
Joel Pineiro↔ BOS 28 FA-elig 140.4 1.2 -0.4
Miguel Cairo↔ NYY 33 FA-elig 280.2 0.3 +0.2
Anthony Reyes 25 pre-arb 270.2 0.4 +0.1
Skip Schumaker 27 pre-arb 880.2 0.4 +0.1
Scott Spiezio 34 FA-elig 820.2 2.1 -1.7
Kelvin Jimenez 26 – 340.2 – –
Chris Carpenter 32 FA-elig 10.1 8.5 -8.2
Troy Cate 26 – 140.1 – –
Brian Falkenborg 29 – 160.0 – –
Brian Esposito 28 – 10.0 – –
Brian Barden↔ ARI 26 pre-arb 15-0.0 0.2 -0.3
Randy Keisler 31 – 4-0.0 – –
Josh Hancock 29 arb 8-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Russell Branyan↔ PHI 31 FA-elig 21-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Tyler Johnson 26 pre-arb 55-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Dennis Dove 25 – 3-0.1 – –
Aaron Miles 30 arb 133-0.2 1.0 -1.4
Mark Mulder 29 FA-elig 3-0.4 4.5 -5.3
Preston Wilson 32 FA-elig 25-0.4 1.0 -1.8
Andy Cavazos 26 – 17-0.4 – –
Gary Bennett 35 FA-elig 59-0.5 0.8 -2.0
Kelly Stinnett 37 – 26-0.6 – –
Mike Maroth↔ DET 29 arb 15-0.6 1.5 -2.9
Juan Encarnacion 31 FA-elig 78-0.8 5.0 -6.7
Brad Thompson 25 pre-arb 45-0.9 0.4 -2.3
Adam Kennedy 31 FA-elig 87-1.1 2.5 -4.8

Key additions (new vs 2006)

PlayerfWAR
Ryan Ludwick2.1
Kip Wells1.6
Rick Ankiel1.5
Russ Springer1.4
Brendan Ryan1.2
Ryan Franklin0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2006)

Player2006 fWAR
Jeff Suppan2.4
Hector Luna1.0
Sidney Ponson0.7
John Rodriguez0.6
Jose Vizcaino0.2
Ronnie Belliard0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2007 payroll
$94.7M

What the front office was committed to as of 2007, 2007–2013. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (23)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Albert Pujols276.000$12.9M$13.9M$14.4M$14.6M$14.5MFREE AGENT
Scott Rolen3211.000$12.3MFREE AGENT
Jim Edmonds3714.000$9.6MFREE AGENT
Jason Isringhausen3412.000$8.8M$8.0MFREE AGENT
Chris Carpenter3210.000$8.5M$10.5M$13.3M$15.8M$14.3M$10.5MFREE AGENT
Juan Encarnacion3110.000$5.0MFREE AGENT
David Eckstein326.000$4.6MFREE AGENT
Mark Mulder297.000$4.5M$7.0MFREE AGENT
Braden Looper329.000$4.5M$5.5MFREE AGENT
Kip Wells308.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Adam Kennedy318.000$2.5M$3.5MFREE AGENT
Scott Spiezio3411.000$2.1MFREE AGENT
Russ Springer3815.000$1.8M$3.5MFREE AGENT
Joel Pineiro287.000$1.2M$5.5M$7.5MFREE AGENT
Ryan Franklin348.000$1.0M$2.2M$2.5M$3.0M$3.2MFREE AGENT
Preston Wilson329.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Gary Bennett3512.000$850kFREE AGENT
Miguel Cairo3311.000$256kFREE AGENT
Russell Branyan319.000$236kFREE AGENT
Rick Ankiel278.000$114k$900k$2.8MFREE AGENT
Troy Percival3712.000—FREE AGENT
Kelly Stinnett3713.000—FREE AGENT
Brian Falkenborg298.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Mike Maroth295.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Aaron Miles304.000$1.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
So Taguchi375.000$925kFREE AGENT
Randy Flores315.000$800kFREE AGENT
Yadier Molina243.000$525kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Hancock295.000$430kFREE AGENT
Todd Wellemeyer284.000$397kARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Ludwick285.000$380kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Adam Wainwright252.000$410kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Thompson252.000$400kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Duncan262.000$400kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Johnson262.000$395kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Reyes252.000$392kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Skip Schumaker272.000$382kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brendan Ryan250.000$380kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Barden260.000$248kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Keisler31–—
Troy Cate26–—
Brian Esposito28–—
Dennis Dove25–—
Andy Cavazos26–—
Kelvin Jimenez26–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cardinals 2007; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.