DET⇄STL

DETDET Dave Dombrowski net +$6.4M net +0.4

received +$20.0M+$20.0M ± $43M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 3.1 ± 5 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 2007 odds 48% → 52% (+3.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chris LambertP·24y·R/R

+$20.0M+$20.0M± $43M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 3.1± 5 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#19 overall draft pick → 0.57/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.57/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

STLSTL John Mozeliak net −$6.4M net -0.4

received +$10.4M+$9.6M ± $15M expected surplus · −$8.8M realized received 1.6 ± 2 expected · -0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 2007 odds 5% → 4% (-0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike MarothP·29y·L/L

+$10.5M+$9.8M± $15M exp surplusrealized −$8.8M 1.6± 2 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

1.05/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.