RRosternomics
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Giants SFG

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President of baseball ops: Buster Posey · GM: Zack Minasian

Overview

REBUILD ↗ rising
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.98× league · TAB -1.8
-1.8TAB — talent above budget23rd/30
-0.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)18th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars13th/30
-4.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag11th/30
11%dead money %2nd/30
0.500win %16th/30
32.2roster fWAR17th/30
-22surplus $M (value vs cost)18th/30
$151Mpayroll $M13th/30

Roster

CFJung Hoo Lee 147GLuis Matos 8GDrew Gilbert 6G
LFHeliot Ramos 154GLuis Matos 10GGrant McCray 10G
RFLuis Matos 33GDrew Gilbert 30GJerar Encarnacion 14G
SSWilly Adames 158GChristian Koss 7GCasey Schmitt 1G
2BTyler Fitzgerald 69GCasey Schmitt 53GChristian Koss 46G
3BMatt Chapman 127GCasey Schmitt 26GChristian Koss 13G
1BDominic Smith 53GWilmer Flores 30GRafael Devers 28G
STARTERSLogan Webb 5.5WARRobbie Ray 2.2WARJustin Verlander 2.2WARLanden Roupp 1.1WARKai-Wei Teng 0.3WAR
CPatrick Bailey 132GAndrew Knizner 32GSam Huff 20G
DHRafael Devers 133GWilmer Flores 83GBryce Eldridge 6G
BULLPEN★ Ryan Walker 17svRandy Rodríguez 13hErik Miller 10hJosé Buttó 6hJoey Lucchesi 6hSpencer Bivens 4hTristan Beck 3hMatt Gage 2h
CPatrick Bailey 132 · Andrew Knizner 32 · Sam Huff 20
1BDominic Smith 53 · Wilmer Flores 30 · Rafael Devers 28
2BTyler Fitzgerald 69 · Casey Schmitt 53 · Christian Koss 46
3BMatt Chapman 127 · Casey Schmitt 26 · Christian Koss 13
SSWilly Adames 158 · Christian Koss 7 · Casey Schmitt 1
LFHeliot Ramos 154 · Luis Matos 10 · Grant McCray 10
CFJung Hoo Lee 147 · Luis Matos 8 · Drew Gilbert 6
RFLuis Matos 33 · Drew Gilbert 30 · Jerar Encarnacion 14
DHRafael Devers 133 · Wilmer Flores 83 · Bryce Eldridge 6
SPLogan Webb 5.5 · Robbie Ray 2.2 · Justin Verlander 2.2 · Landen Roupp 1.1 · Kai-Wei Teng 0.3
BP★ Ryan Walker 17 · Randy Rodríguez 13 · Erik Miller 10 · José Buttó 6 · Joey Lucchesi 6 · Spencer Bivens 4 · Tristan Beck 3 · Matt Gage 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2025 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Logan Webb 28 arb 345.5 12.0 +9.9
Willy Adames 29 FA-elig 1604.0 13.1 +2.9
Matt Chapman 32 FA-elig 1283.7 25.2 -10.6
Patrick Bailey 26 pre-arb 1353.2 0.8 +12.0
Jung Hoo Lee 26 – 1502.4 17.2 -7.7
Justin Verlander 42 FA-elig 292.2 15.0 -6.1
Robbie Ray 33 FA-elig 322.2 25.0 -16.3
Randy Rodríguez 25 pre-arb 501.4 0.8 +4.9
Rafael Devers↔ BOS 28 FA-elig 901.3 8.5 -3.4
Landen Roupp 26 pre-arb 221.1 0.8 +3.7
Heliot Ramos 25 pre-arb 1571.1 0.8 +3.6
Mike Yastrzemski↔ KCR 34 – 971.0 5.4 -1.5
Tyler Rogers↔ NYM 34 – 530.9 2.3 +1.3
Casey Schmitt 26 pre-arb 950.7 0.8 +2.1
Jordan Hicks↔ BOS 28 – 130.7 2.8 -0.2
Ryan Walker 29 pre-arb 680.6 0.8 +1.7
Camilo Doval↔ NYY 27 – 470.6 2.1 +0.1
Christian Koss 27 – 760.5 0.7 +1.4
Matt Gage↔ DET 32 pre-arb 270.5 0.2 +1.6
Spencer Bivens 31 pre-arb 540.4 0.8 +0.9
Trevor McDonald 24 pre-arb 30.4 0.1 +1.6
Dominic Smith 30 FA-elig 630.4 0.9 +0.6
Kai-Wei Teng 26 pre-arb 80.3 0.1 +1.2
JT Brubaker↔ NYY 31 arb 50.3 0.5 +0.7
Andrew Knizner 30 arb 330.2 0.9 -0.1
Tyler Fitzgerald 27 pre-arb 720.1 0.5 -0.1
Kyle Harrison↔ BOS 23 – 80.1 0.1 +0.3
Drew Gilbert 24 – 390.1 0.2 +0.1
Jerar Encarnacion 27 pre-arb 190.1 0.8 -0.4
Erik Miller 27 pre-arb 360.1 0.8 -0.5
Keaton Winn 27 pre-arb 70.1 0.3 -0.1
Joey Lucchesi 32 arb 380.1 0.9 -0.7
Joel Peguero 28 – 170.0 0.2 -0.1
Brett Wisely↔ ATL 26 – 220.0 0.3 -0.3
Hayden Birdsong 23 pre-arb 21-0.0 0.5 -0.6
Daniel Johnson↔ BAL 29 – 14-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Tristan Beck 29 pre-arb 31-0.0 0.5 -0.6
Logan Porter 29 pre-arb 5-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Mason Black 25 pre-arb 1-0.1 0.1 -0.4
José Buttó↔ NYM 27 pre-arb 21-0.1 0.2 -0.6
Scott Alexander↔ COL 35 – 2-0.1 0.2 -0.5
David Villar 28 – 9-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Sean Hjelle 28 pre-arb 12-0.1 0.2 -0.7
Sergio Alcántara 28 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.5
Bryce Eldridge 20 – 10-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Sam Huff 27 pre-arb 20-0.2 0.3 -1.0
Luis Matos 23 pre-arb 57-0.2 0.6 -1.5
Wilmer Flores 33 FA-elig 125-0.2 3.5 -4.4
Lou Trivino III↔ LAD 33 – 11-0.3 – –
Grant McCray 24 pre-arb 22-0.4 0.3 -1.7
Carson Whisenhunt 24 – 5-0.4 0.2 -1.9
Carson Seymour 26 – 16-0.6 0.3 -2.9
LaMonte Wade Jr.↔ ANA 31 – 50-1.0 2.2 -6.3

Key additions (new vs 2024)

PlayerfWAR
Willy Adames4.0
Justin Verlander2.2
Rafael Devers1.3
Christian Koss0.5
Matt Gage0.5
Dominic Smith0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2024)

Player2024 fWAR
Blake Snell3.1
Michael Conforto1.3
Jorge Soler0.7
Thairo Estrada0.4
Nick Ahmed0.3
Blake Sabol0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2025 payroll
$151.3M
2026 guaranteed
$121.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 2025, 2025–2031. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2025; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Matt Chapman327.109$25.2M$25.2M$25.2M$25.2M$25.2M$25.2MFREE AGENT
Robbie Ray3310.007$25.0MOPT-OUT$25.0MFREE AGENT
Justin Verlander4219.002$15.0MFREE AGENT
Willy Adames296.105$13.1M$13.1M$31.1M$31.1M$31.1M$31.1M$31.1M
Logan Webb285.044$12.0M$23.0M$23.0M$24.0MFREE AGENT
Rafael Devers287.070$8.5M$27.0M$28.5M$28.5M$28.5M$28.5M$28.5M
Wilmer Flores3311.003$3.5MFREE AGENT
Jordan Hicks287.000$2.8M$8.5M$8.5MFREE AGENT
LaMonte Wade Jr.316.000$2.2MFREE AGENT
Dominic Smith306.034$944kFREE AGENT
Scott Alexander357.080$185kFREE AGENT
Lou Trivino III336.163—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (6)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Mike Yastrzemski345.128$5.4MFREE AGENT
Tyler Rogers345.034$2.3MFREE AGENT
Camilo Doval273.071$2.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Knizner304.145$944kARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Lucchesi324.113$855kARB 3FREE AGENT
JT Brubaker315.000$502kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (35)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Jung Hoo Lee261.000$17.2MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Schmitt261.035$780kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Heliot Ramos251.130$780kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Walker291.136$780kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Patrick Bailey261.136$780kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erik Miller271.000$780kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Rodríguez250.148$770kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jerar Encarnacion270.112$770kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Landen Roupp260.085$765kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Spencer Bivens310.077$765kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christian Koss270.000$739kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Matos231.014$588kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tristan Beck291.129$534kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hayden Birdsong230.083$527kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Fitzgerald271.000$502kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carson Seymour260.000$346kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keaton Winn271.053$304kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Wisely261.035$303kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Huff271.156$302kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Grant McCray240.047$289kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Gage320.063$242kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Hjelle281.072$229kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carson Whisenhunt240.000$223kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Gilbert240.000$212kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Buttó270.168$203kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joel Peguero280.000$159kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Villar281.140$141kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mason Black250.048$134kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor McDonald240.001$124kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Harrison231.041$120kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kai-Wei Teng260.022$110kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryce Eldridge200.000$57kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Johnson290.123$57kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Porter290.021$41kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sergio Alcántara282.005$8kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Giants 2025; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.