PIT⇄BAL

PITPIT Neal Huntington net +$1.6M net +0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2013 odds 38% → 38% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jhondaniel Medina

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Dan Duquette net −$1.6M net -0.1

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $22M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2013 odds 24% → 24% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Yamaico Navarro3B/SS·25y·R/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.8/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

-0.24/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.