RRosternomics
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Phillies PHI

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President of baseball ops: Dave Dombrowski · GM: Sam Fuld

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.58× league · TAB -3.9
-3.9TAB — talent above budget19th/30
-5.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)20th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars15th/30
-7.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag26th/30
24%dead money %9th/30
0.506win %15th/30
36.0roster fWAR14th/30
-83surplus $M (value vs cost)26th/30
$200Mpayroll $M4th/30

Roster

CFOdúbel Herrera 104GTravis Jankowski 45GRoman Quinn 21G
LFAndrew McCutchen 135GOdúbel Herrera 23GMatt Joyce 9G
RFBryce Harper 139GBrad Miller 14GMatt Joyce 9G
SSDidi Gregorius 101GFreddy Galvis 82GRonald Torreyes 44G
2BJean Segura 128GNick Maton 21GBrad Miller 13G
3BAlec Bohm 103GRonald Torreyes 50GFreddy Galvis 19G
1BRhys Hoskins 103GBrad Miller 58GJ.T. Realmuto 16G
STARTERSZack Wheeler 7.3WARAaron Nola 4.7WARRanger Suarez 3.3WARZach Eflin 1.9WARKyle Gibson 1.2WAR
CJ.T. Realmuto 118GAndrew Knapp 47GRafael Marchán 17G
DHJ.T. Realmuto 3GBrad Miller 3GBryce Harper 2G
BULLPEN★ Ian Kennedy 26svJosé Alvarado 16hArchie Bradley 13hHéctor Neris 11hConnor Brogdon 11hSam Coonrod 8hBrandon Kintzler 2hCam Bedrosian 1h
CJ.T. Realmuto 118 · Andrew Knapp 47 · Rafael Marchán 17
1BRhys Hoskins 103 · Brad Miller 58 · J.T. Realmuto 16
2BJean Segura 128 · Nick Maton 21 · Brad Miller 13
3BAlec Bohm 103 · Ronald Torreyes 50 · Freddy Galvis 19
SSDidi Gregorius 101 · Freddy Galvis 82 · Ronald Torreyes 44
LFAndrew McCutchen 135 · Odúbel Herrera 23 · Matt Joyce 9
CFOdúbel Herrera 104 · Travis Jankowski 45 · Roman Quinn 21
RFBryce Harper 139 · Brad Miller 14 · Matt Joyce 9
DHJ.T. Realmuto 3 · Brad Miller 3 · Bryce Harper 2
SPZack Wheeler 7.3 · Aaron Nola 4.7 · Ranger Suarez 3.3 · Zach Eflin 1.9 · Kyle Gibson 1.2
BP★ Ian Kennedy 26 · José Alvarado 16 · Archie Bradley 13 · Héctor Neris 11 · Connor Brogdon 11 · Sam Coonrod 8 · Brandon Kintzler 2 · Cam Bedrosian 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2021 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Zack Wheeler 31 FA-elig 337.3 22.5 +1.2
Bryce Harper 28 FA-elig 1416.6 27.5 -5.9
Aaron Nola 28 FA-elig 334.7 12.2 +3.0
J.T. Realmuto 30 FA-elig 1344.6 20.0 -4.9
Jean Segura 31 FA-elig 1313.5 14.8 -3.6
Ranger Suarez 25 pre-arb 393.3 0.5 +10.1
Rhys Hoskins 28 arb 1071.9 4.8 +1.5
Zach Eflin 27 arb 181.9 4.5 +1.6
Andrew McCutchen 34 FA-elig 1441.5 20.0 -15.3
Odúbel Herrera 29 FA-elig 1241.4 10.3 -5.7
Kyle Gibson↔ TEX 33 FA-elig 121.2 3.9 -0.0
Connor Brogdon 26 pre-arb 560.7 0.6 +1.8
Brad Miller 31 FA-elig 1400.7 3.5 -1.2
Travis Jankowski 30 FA-elig 760.7 0.6 +1.6
Matt Vierling 24 – 340.6 0.1 +1.7
Spencer Howard↔ TEX 24 – 110.5 0.1 +1.6
Héctor Neris 32 FA-elig 740.5 5.0 -3.3
Sam Coonrod 28 pre-arb 420.4 0.6 +0.8
Ronald Torreyes 28 arb 1120.3 0.8 +0.1
Bailey Falter 24 – 220.3 0.4 +0.5
Archie Bradley 28 FA-elig 530.2 6.0 -5.3
Roman Quinn 28 pre-arb 280.2 0.6 +0.1
Nick Maton 24 – 520.2 0.3 +0.3
Luke Williams 24 – 580.2 0.3 +0.1
Cristopher Sánchez 24 – 70.1 0.1 +0.3
Adonis Medina 24 pre-arb 40.1 0.1 +0.2
Freddy Galvis↔ BAL 31 FA-elig 320.0 0.5 -0.4
Seranthony Domínguez 26 arb 10.0 0.7 -0.6
JD Hammer 26 pre-arb 200.0 0.2 -0.2
Kyle Dohy 24 – 10.0 0.0 -0.0
Alec Bohm 24 pre-arb 115-0.0 0.5 -0.5
Damon Jones 26 – 1-0.0 0.1 -0.2
David Paulino 27 arb 1-0.0 0.1 -0.3
Ramón Rosso 25 pre-arb 7-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Rafael Marchán 22 pre-arb 20-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Vince Velasquez↔ SDP 29 FA-elig 22-0.1 3.4 -3.7
David Hale 33 FA-elig 17-0.1 0.8 -1.2
Cam Bedrosian↔ CIN 29 FA-elig 11-0.1 0.6 -1.0
Enyel De Los Santos↔ PIT 25 – 26-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Jorge Bonifacio 28 pre-arb 7-0.1 0.0 -0.5
Neftalí Feliz↔ LAD 33 – 2-0.2 0.0 -0.8
Hans Crouse 22 – 2-0.2 0.0 -0.8
José Alvarado 26 arb 64-0.3 1.0 -1.9
Mickey Moniak 23 pre-arb 21-0.3 0.1 -1.1
Brandon Kintzler 36 FA-elig 29-0.3 3.0 -4.0
Mauricio Llovera 25 pre-arb 6-0.3 0.1 -1.1
Adam Haseley 25 pre-arb 9-0.3 0.2 -1.3
Ian Kennedy↔ TEX 36 FA-elig 23-0.4 0.9 -2.1
Matt Moore 32 FA-elig 24-0.4 3.0 -4.3
Matt Joyce 36 FA-elig 43-0.4 1.5 -2.8
Scott Kingery 27 arb 15-0.4 4.2 -5.6
JoJo Romero 24 pre-arb 11-0.4 0.5 -2.0
Chase Anderson 33 FA-elig 14-0.5 4.0 -5.5
Didi Gregorius 31 FA-elig 103-1.0 12.8 -16.0
Andrew Knapp 29 arb 62-1.3 1.1 -5.4

Key additions (new vs 2020)

PlayerfWAR
Odúbel Herrera1.4
Kyle Gibson1.2
Brad Miller0.7
Travis Jankowski0.7
Matt Vierling0.6
Sam Coonrod0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2020)

Player2020 fWAR
Tommy Hunter0.5
Jake Arrieta0.5
Blake Parker0.3
Jose Alvarez0.1
Phil Gosselin0.0
Cole Irvin-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2021 payroll
$199.7M
2022 guaranteed
$27.6M

What the front office was committed to as of 2021, 2021–2027. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2021; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Bryce Harper288.159$27.5M$27.6M$27.5M$27.5M$27.5M$27.5M$27.5M
Zack Wheeler317.098$22.5MFREE AGENT
Andrew McCutchen3411.123$20.0MFREE AGENT
J.T. Realmuto306.038$20.0MFREE AGENT
Jean Segura318.065$14.8MFREE AGENT
Didi Gregorius317.159$12.8MFREE AGENT
Chase Anderson337.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Kyle Gibson337.039$3.9MFREE AGENT
Brad Miller317.004$3.5MFREE AGENT
Brandon Kintzler3611.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Matt Moore328.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Matt Joyce3613.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Ian Kennedy3611.124$899kFREE AGENT
David Hale338.000$850kFREE AGENT
Freddy Galvis318.021$462kFREE AGENT
Neftalí Feliz337.129$13kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Aaron Nola285.076$12.2MFREE AGENT
Odúbel Herrera294.088$10.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Archie Bradley285.112$6.0MFREE AGENT
Héctor Neris325.068$5.0MFREE AGENT
Rhys Hoskins283.053$4.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Eflin274.018$4.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Kingery273.000$4.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vince Velasquez295.086$3.4MFREE AGENT
Andrew Knapp294.000$1.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
José Alvarado263.088$1.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ronald Torreyes283.006$800kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cam Bedrosian295.153$635kFREE AGENT
Travis Jankowski304.073$570kARB 3FREE AGENT
Cristopher Sánchez244.083$92kARB 3FREE AGENT
Enyel De Los Santos253.000$48kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (24)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Seranthony Domínguez262.147$728kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roman Quinn282.088$578kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Coonrod281.078$573kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Connor Brogdon260.081$572kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
JoJo Romero240.117$537kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alec Bohm240.128$461kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ranger Suarez251.124$460kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bailey Falter240.000$359kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Williams240.000$347kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Maton240.000$258kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Haseley251.118$227kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
JD Hammer260.057$215kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Vierling240.000$132kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rafael Marchán220.049$123kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Spencer Howard240.139$115kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Paulino270.144$100kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mickey Moniak230.025$89kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mauricio Llovera250.006$83kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ramón Rosso250.097$74kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adonis Medina240.003$71kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Damon Jones260.000$55kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Bonifacio282.041$34kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hans Crouse220.000$25kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Dohy24–$25k

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Phillies 2021; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.