PHI⇄HOU

PHIPHI Dave Dombrowski net −$1.6M net +0.0

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $23M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2022 odds 69% → 71% (+2.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Garrett StubbsC·29y·L/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#229 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.1/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

-0.02/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

HOUHOU James Click net +$1.6M net +0.0

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2022 odds 98% → 98% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Logan CernyCF·22y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#295 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.