NYM⇄PHI

NYMNYM David Stearns net +$1.6M net +0.3

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $28M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.2 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

John SpikermanOF·23y·S/R

+$2.0M+$2.0M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#100 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.84 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Luke GabryshP·23y·R/R

+$2.0M+$2.0M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#462 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.84 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

PHIPHI Dave Dombrowski net −$1.6M net -0.3

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Brooks RaleyP·38y·L/L

−$0.3M−$0.3M± $0M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.47/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.