RRosternomics
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Dodgers LAD

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GM: Ned Colletti

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↗ rising
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.41× league · TAB -1.7
-1.7TAB — talent above budget18th/30
-4.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)22nd/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars10th/30
-4.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag17th/30
35%dead money %21st/30
0.506win %16th/30
36.8roster fWAR13th/30
-40surplus $M (value vs cost)27th/30
$116Mpayroll $M4th/30

Roster

CFJuan Pierre 162GMatt Kemp 6GWilson Valdez 1G
LFLuis Gonzalez 127GAndre Ethier 60GDelwyn Young 6G
RFAndre Ethier 102GMatt Kemp 88GWilson Betemit 1G
SSRafael Furcal 138GWilson Valdez 12GChin-Lung Hu 10G
2BJeff Kent 133GRamon Martinez 36GTony Abreu 25G
3BNomar Garciaparra 43GAndy LaRoche 30GTony Abreu 28G
1BJames Loney 93GNomar Garciaparra 68GMark Sweeney 13G
STARTERSBrad Penny 5.1WARDerek Lowe 3.0WARChad Billingsley 2.0WARRandy Wolf 1.7WARMark Hendrickson 1.4WAR
CRussell Martin 145GMike Lieberthal 31GChad Moeller 24G
DHOlmedo Saenz 5GMarlon Anderson 3GRussell Martin 2G
BULLPEN★ Takashi Saito 39svJonathan Broxton 32hScott Proctor 18hJoe Beimel 16hRoberto Hernandez 5hRudy Seanez 4hChin-hui Tsao 3hD.J. Houlton 2h
CRussell Martin 145 · Mike Lieberthal 31 · Chad Moeller 24
1BJames Loney 93 · Nomar Garciaparra 68 · Mark Sweeney 13
2BJeff Kent 133 · Ramon Martinez 36 · Tony Abreu 25
3BNomar Garciaparra 43 · Andy LaRoche 30 · Tony Abreu 28
SSRafael Furcal 138 · Wilson Valdez 12 · Chin-Lung Hu 10
LFLuis Gonzalez 127 · Andre Ethier 60 · Delwyn Young 6
CFJuan Pierre 162 · Matt Kemp 6 · Wilson Valdez 1
RFAndre Ethier 102 · Matt Kemp 88 · Wilson Betemit 1
DHOlmedo Saenz 5 · Marlon Anderson 3 · Russell Martin 2
SPBrad Penny 5.1 · Derek Lowe 3.0 · Chad Billingsley 2.0 · Randy Wolf 1.7 · Mark Hendrickson 1.4
BP★ Takashi Saito 39 · Jonathan Broxton 32 · Scott Proctor 18 · Joe Beimel 16 · Roberto Hernandez 5 · Rudy Seanez 4 · Chin-hui Tsao 3 · D.J. Houlton 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2007 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Russell Martin 24 pre-arb 1515.5 0.4 +11.4
Brad Penny 29 FA-elig 335.1 7.8 +3.2
Derek Lowe 34 FA-elig 333.0 9.5 -3.0
Jeff Kent 39 FA-elig 1362.8 9.8 -3.7
Juan Pierre 29 FA-elig 1622.4 7.5 -2.4
Takashi Saito 37 pre-arb 632.0 1.0 +3.4
Chad Billingsley 22 pre-arb 432.0 0.4 +3.9
Jonathan Broxton 23 pre-arb 831.9 0.4 +3.8
James Loney 23 – 961.8 0.4 +3.5
Randy Wolf 30 FA-elig 201.7 7.5 -3.9
Matt Kemp 22 pre-arb 981.6 0.4 +3.1
Andre Ethier 25 pre-arb 1531.6 0.4 +3.1
Mark Hendrickson 33 arb 391.4 2.9 +0.1
Rafael Furcal 29 FA-elig 1381.4 13.7 -10.8
Joe Beimel 30 FA-elig 831.0 0.9 +1.2
Wilson Betemit↔ NYY 25 FA-elig 840.9 0.3 +1.6
Tony Abreu 22 – 590.6 – –
Luis Gonzalez 39 FA-elig 1390.6 7.2 -5.9
Hung-Chih Kuo 25 pre-arb 80.5 0.4 +0.8
Brett Tomko↔ SDP 34 FA-elig 340.5 3.4 -2.3
David Wells↔ SDP 44 FA-elig 70.5 0.7 +0.4
Delwyn Young 25 – 190.5 – –
Rudy Seanez 38 FA-elig 730.5 0.7 +0.3
Eric Stults 27 – 130.5 0.4 +0.6
Wilson Valdez 29 arb 410.4 0.4 +0.4
Jason Schmidt 34 FA-elig 60.2 15.7 -15.2
Andy LaRoche 23 – 350.2 – –
Chin-Lung Hu 23 – 120.2 – –
Chin-hui Tsao 26 – 210.1 – –
Eric Hull 27 – 50.1 – –
Yhency Brazoban 27 arb 40.0 0.4 -0.3
Scott Proctor↔ NYY 30 arb 310.0 0.2 -0.2
D.J. Houlton 27 – 18-0.0 – –
Mark Sweeney↔ SFG 37 FA-elig 30-0.1 0.3 -0.4
Chad Moeller↔ CIN 32 FA-elig 7-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Jon Meloan 22 – 5-0.1 – –
Marlon Anderson↔ NYM 33 FA-elig 23-0.1 0.3 -0.6
Roberto Hernandez↔ CLE 42 FA-elig 22-0.1 1.5 -1.8
Brady Clark↔ SDP 34 FA-elig 47-0.3 2.7 -3.3
Mike Lieberthal 35 FA-elig 38-0.3 1.1 -1.8
Olmedo Saenz 36 FA-elig 92-0.3 1.0 -1.7
Shea Hillenbrand↔ ANA 31 FA-elig 20-0.6 1.6 -2.9
Esteban Loaiza↔ OAK 35 FA-elig 5-0.7 5.4 -6.9
Ramon Martinez 34 FA-elig 67-0.9 0.8 -2.8
Nomar Garciaparra 33 FA-elig 121-1.0 8.5 -10.7

Key additions (new vs 2006)

PlayerfWAR
Juan Pierre2.4
Randy Wolf1.7
Tony Abreu0.6
Luis Gonzalez0.6
David Wells0.5
Rudy Seanez0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2006)

Player2006 fWAR
J.D. Drew4.2
Greg Maddux1.5
Aaron Sele1.3
Kenny Lofton1.0
Danys Baez0.7
José Cruz Jr.0.6

Current & Historical Payroll

2007 payroll
$115.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 2007, 2007–2013. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (24)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Jason Schmidt3412.000$15.7MFREE AGENT$15.2M
Rafael Furcal297.000$13.7M$15.7M$7.5M$9.5M$7.5MFREE AGENT
Jeff Kent3915.000$9.8M$9.0MFREE AGENT
Derek Lowe3410.000$9.5M$10.0MFREE AGENT
Nomar Garciaparra3311.000$8.5M$9.5MFREE AGENT
Brad Penny297.000$7.8M$9.2MFREE AGENT
Juan Pierre297.000$7.5M$8.0M$10.0MFREE AGENT
Randy Wolf308.000$7.5MFREE AGENT$5.0M
Luis Gonzalez3917.000$7.2MFREE AGENT
Esteban Loaiza3512.000$5.4M$5.2MFREE AGENT
Brett Tomko3410.000$3.4MFREE AGENT
Brady Clark347.000$2.7MFREE AGENT
Shea Hillenbrand316.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
Roberto Hernandez4216.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Mike Lieberthal3513.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Olmedo Saenz3613.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Joe Beimel306.000$912k$1.9MFREE AGENT
Ramon Martinez349.000$800kFREE AGENT
David Wells4420.000$724kFREE AGENT
Rudy Seanez3818.000$700kFREE AGENT
Marlon Anderson339.000$322kFREE AGENT
Wilson Betemit256.000$281kFREE AGENT
Mark Sweeney3712.000$255k$600kFREE AGENT
Chad Moeller327.000$132kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (5)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Mark Hendrickson335.000$2.9MFREE AGENT
Yhency Brazoban273.000$395kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilson Valdez293.000$381kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Proctor303.000$170kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chin-hui Tsao264.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Takashi Saito371.000$1.0MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Broxton232.000$390kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Russell Martin241.000$388kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andre Ethier251.000$388kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Billingsley221.000$384kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hung-Chih Kuo252.000$384kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Kemp221.000$383kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Loney231.000$380kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Stults271.000$380kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Delwyn Young251.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
D.J. Houlton272.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andy LaRoche230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Hull27–—
Jon Meloan220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chin-Lung Hu230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Abreu220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Dodgers 2007; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.