RRosternomics

Dodgers LAD

GM: Paul DePodesta

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.0× league · TAB -9.4
-9.4TAB — talent above budget26th/30
-11.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)28th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars23rd/30
-5.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag23rd/30
31%dead money %16th/30
0.438win %24th/30
24.9roster fWAR24th/30
-27surplus $M (value vs cost)25th/30
$72Mpayroll $M14th/30

Roster

CFMilton Bradley 72GJason Repko 58GJ.D. Drew 30G
LFJayson Werth 64GRicky Ledee 57GMike Edwards 32G
RFJosé Cruz Jr. 55GJ.D. Drew 44GJayson Werth 43G
SSCésar Izturis 106GOscar Robles 54GAntonio Perez 9G
2BJeff Kent 140GAntonio Perez 29GWilly Aybar 6G
3BOscar Robles 40GMike Edwards 39GAntonio Perez 35G
1BHee-Seop Choi 83GOlmedo Saenz 66GJason Phillips 21G
STARTERSBrad Penny 3.6WARDerek Lowe 2.8WARJeff Weaver 2.8WAROdalis Perez 1.4WARElmer Dessens 0.4WAR
CJason Phillips 93GDioner Navarro 50GPaul Bako 13G
DHOlmedo Saenz 8GMike Edwards 1GAntonio Perez 1G
BULLPEN Yhency Brazoban 21svKelly Wunsch 15hDuaner Sanchez 13hGiovanni Carrara 11hSteve Schmoll 9hFranquelis Osoria 3hWilson Alvarez 2hEric Gagne 0h
CJason Phillips 93 · Dioner Navarro 50 · Paul Bako 13
1BHee-Seop Choi 83 · Olmedo Saenz 66 · Jason Phillips 21
2BJeff Kent 140 · Antonio Perez 29 · Willy Aybar 6
3BOscar Robles 40 · Mike Edwards 39 · Antonio Perez 35
SSCésar Izturis 106 · Oscar Robles 54 · Antonio Perez 9
LFJayson Werth 64 · Ricky Ledee 57 · Mike Edwards 32
CFMilton Bradley 72 · Jason Repko 58 · J.D. Drew 30
RFJosé Cruz Jr. 55 · J.D. Drew 44 · Jayson Werth 43
DHOlmedo Saenz 8 · Mike Edwards 1 · Antonio Perez 1
SPBrad Penny 3.6 · Derek Lowe 2.8 · Jeff Weaver 2.8 · Odalis Perez 1.4 · Elmer Dessens 0.4
BP Yhency Brazoban 21 · Kelly Wunsch 15 · Duaner Sanchez 13 · Giovanni Carrara 11 · Steve Schmoll 9 · Franquelis Osoria 3 · Wilson Alvarez 2 · Eric Gagne 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2005 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jeff Kent 37 FA-elig 1493.6 7.3 -0.5
Brad Penny 27 arb 293.6 5.1 +1.7
Jeff Weaver 28 FA-elig 392.8 9.3 -4.0
Derek Lowe 32 FA-elig 352.8 7.0 -1.8
J.D. Drew 29 FA-elig 722.7 9.4 -4.2
José Cruz Jr.↔ ARI 31 FA-elig 472.2 1.6 +2.4
Milton Bradley 27 arb 751.6 2.5 +0.5
Odalis Perez 27 FA-elig 191.4 4.5 -1.8
Jayson Werth 26 arb 1021.2 0.3 +2.0
Hee-Seop Choi 26 arb 1331.1 0.4 +1.7
Willy Aybar 22 261.0
Antonio Perez 25 pre-arb 980.9 0.3 +1.4
Jason Repko 24 pre-arb 1290.7 0.3 +1.1
Ricky Ledee 31 FA-elig 1020.7 1.0 +0.3
Dioner Navarro 21 500.7
Olmedo Saenz 34 FA-elig 1090.5 0.7 +0.4
Duaner Sanchez 25 arb 790.5 0.3 +0.7
Elmer Dessens 34 FA-elig 280.4 1.3 -0.6
Eric Gagne 29 FA-elig 140.4 8.0 -7.3
Paul Bako 33 FA-elig 130.3 0.7 -0.1
Derek Thompson 24 40.3
D.J. Houlton 25 pre-arb 350.3 0.3 +0.2
Jonathan Broxton 21 140.3 0.3 +0.2
Edwin Jackson 21 100.3 0.3 +0.2
Giovanni Carrara 37 FA-elig 720.1 0.5 -0.3
Brian Myrow 28 190.1
Jose Valentin 35 FA-elig 560.1 3.5 -3.4
Kelly Wunsch 32 arb 450.1 0.6 -0.5
Chin-Feng Chen 27 70.0
Oscar Robles 29 1100.0
Cody Ross 24 140.0 0.3 -0.3
Hung-Chih Kuo 23 9-0.0
Steve Schmoll 25 pre-arb 48-0.1 0.3 -0.4
Franquelis Osoria 23 24-0.1
Buddy Carlyle 27 FA-elig 10-0.2 0.3 -0.8
Mike Rose 28 15-0.2
Wilson Alvarez 35 FA-elig 21-0.3 2.0 -2.6
Yhency Brazoban 25 pre-arb 74-0.4 0.3 -1.0
Cesar Izturis 25 arb 106-0.4 2.1 -2.9
Norihiro Nakamura 31 17-0.4
Mike Edwards 28 88-0.5
Scott Erickson 37 FA-elig 19-0.9 0.5 -2.2
Jason Phillips 28 arb 121-1.0 0.3 -2.2
Jason Grabowski 29 arb 65-1.2 0.3 -2.7

Key additions (new vs 2004)

PlayerfWAR
Jeff Kent3.6
Derek Lowe2.8
J.D. Drew2.7
José Cruz Jr.2.2
Willy Aybar1.0
Jason Repko0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2004)

Player2004 fWAR
Adrian Beltré9.7
Shawn Green2.2
José Hernández2.0
Alex Cora1.9
Paul Lo Duca1.7
Steve Finley1.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2005 payroll
$72.2M

What the front office was committed to as of 2005, 2005–2011. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2005200620072008200920102011
J.D. Drew297.000$9.4M$11.4MFREE AGENT
Jeff Weaver286.000$9.3MFREE AGENT$800k
Eric Gagne296.000$8.0M$10.0MFREE AGENT
Jeff Kent3713.000$7.3M$9.4M$9.8M$9.0MFREE AGENT
Derek Lowe328.000$7.0M$9.5M$9.5M$10.0MFREE AGENT
Odalis Perez277.000$4.5M$5.6MFREE AGENT
Jose Valentin3513.000$3.5MFREE AGENT
Wilson Alvarez3516.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
José Cruz Jr.318.000$1.6M$2.9MFREE AGENT
Elmer Dessens349.000$1.3M$1.2MFREE AGENT
Ricky Ledee317.000$1.0M$921kFREE AGENT
Olmedo Saenz3411.000$650k$1.0M$1.0MFREE AGENT
Paul Bako337.000$650kFREE AGENT
Scott Erickson3715.000$525kFREE AGENT
Giovanni Carrara3710.000$500kFREE AGENT
Buddy Carlyle276.000$330kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2005200620072008200920102011
Brad Penny275.000$5.1MFREE AGENT
Milton Bradley275.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Cesar Izturis254.000$2.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Kelly Wunsch325.000$550kFREE AGENT
Hee-Seop Choi263.000$352kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Phillips284.000$339kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jayson Werth263.000$337kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Duaner Sanchez253.000$332kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Grabowski293.000$327kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2005200620072008200920102011
Antonio Perez252.000$330kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yhency Brazoban251.000$320kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Ross242.000$316kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edwin Jackson212.000$316kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Repko240.000$316kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
D.J. Houlton250.000$316kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Broxton210.000$316kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Schmoll250.000$316kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chin-Feng Chen27
Hung-Chih Kuo230.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Derek Thompson24
Mike Rose28
Oscar Robles29
Mike Edwards28
Dioner Navarro211.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Willy Aybar220.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Franquelis Osoria230.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Myrow28
Norihiro Nakamura31

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Dodgers 2005; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3