RRosternomics

Dodgers LAD

GM: Fred Claire

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↗ rising
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.53× league · TAB -5.4
-5.4TAB — talent above budget20th/26
-9.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)23rd/26
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars19th/26
-3.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag10th/26
17%dead money %4th/26
0.481win %17th/26
33.6roster fWAR11th/26
-9surplus $M (value vs cost)25th/26
$21Mpayroll $M2nd/26

Roster

CFJohn Shelby 98GJose Gonzalez 55GKirk Gibson 15G
LFKirk Gibson 62GKal Daniels 49GMickey Hatcher 39G
RFMike Marshall 102GMike Davis 34GJose Gonzalez 34G
SSAlfredo Griffin 131GDave Anderson 33GLenny Harris 18G
2BWillie Randolph 140GLenny Harris 46GDave Anderson 7G
3BJeff Hamilton 147GLenny Harris 24GDave Anderson 18G
1BEddie Murray 159GFranklin Stubbs 7GMickey Hatcher 5G
STARTERSOrel Hershiser 6.1WARTim Belcher 3.0WARMike Morgan 2.3WARJohn Wetteland 1.7WARFernando Valenzuela 1.1WAR
CMike Scioscia 130GRick Dempsey 62GDarrin Fletcher 5G
BULLPEN Jay Howell 28svAlejandro Pena 0hTim Crews 0hRay Searage 0hJohn Tudor 0hMike Hartley 0hMike Munoz 0hJeff Fischer 0h
CMike Scioscia 130 · Rick Dempsey 62 · Darrin Fletcher 5
1BEddie Murray 159 · Franklin Stubbs 7 · Mickey Hatcher 5
2BWillie Randolph 140 · Lenny Harris 46 · Dave Anderson 7
3BJeff Hamilton 147 · Lenny Harris 24 · Dave Anderson 18
SSAlfredo Griffin 131 · Dave Anderson 33 · Lenny Harris 18
LFKirk Gibson 62 · Kal Daniels 49 · Mickey Hatcher 39
CFJohn Shelby 98 · Jose Gonzalez 55 · Kirk Gibson 15
RFMike Marshall 102 · Mike Davis 34 · Jose Gonzalez 34
SPOrel Hershiser 6.1 · Tim Belcher 3.0 · Mike Morgan 2.3 · John Wetteland 1.7 · Fernando Valenzuela 1.1
BP Jay Howell 28 · Alejandro Pena 0 · Tim Crews 0 · Ray Searage 0 · John Tudor 0 · Mike Hartley 0 · Mike Munoz 0 · Jeff Fischer 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1989 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Orel Hershiser 30 FA-elig 356.1 2.8 -0.6
Willie Randolph 34 FA-elig 1453.9 0.9 +0.5
Mike Scioscia 30 FA-elig 1333.2 1.1 +0.0
Eddie Murray 33 FA-elig 1603.1 2.3 -1.2
Tim Belcher 27 pre-arb 393.0 0.2 +0.9
Mike Morgan 29 FA-elig 402.3 0.4 +0.5
John Wetteland 22 pre-arb 311.7 0.1 +0.5
Jay Howell 33 FA-elig 561.5 0.9 -0.4
Alejandro Pena 30 FA-elig 531.2 0.9 -0.4
Rick Dempsey 39 FA-elig 791.1 0.4 -0.0
Franklin Stubbs 28 arb 691.1 0.3 +0.0
Mike Marshall 29 FA-elig 1051.1 1.1 -0.7
Fernando Valenzuela 28 FA-elig 341.1 1.9 -1.5
Ramon Martinez 21 pre-arb 160.9 0.1 +0.2
Kirk Gibson 32 FA-elig 710.8 1.3 -1.0
Mike Davis 30 FA-elig 670.8 1.0 -0.7
Alfredo Griffin 31 FA-elig 1360.8 1.0 -0.7
Jose Gonzalez 24 arb 950.7 0.1 +0.2
Tim Leary↔ CIN 30 FA-elig 190.7 0.4 -0.1
Jeff Hamilton 25 arb 1510.4 0.1 +0.0
Chris Gwynn 24 pre-arb 320.3 0.1 +0.0
Darrin Fletcher 22 50.3
Kal Daniels↔ CIN 25 arb 110.2 0.1 +0.0
Mike Huff 25 120.2
Ray Searage 34 FA-elig 410.2 0.1 -0.1
Dave Anderson 28 FA-elig 870.2 0.4 -0.3
Mike Hartley 27 50.2
John Tudor 35 FA-elig 60.1 1.3 -1.3
Tim Crews 28 pre-arb 440.0 0.1 -0.1
Lenny Harris↔ CIN 24 pre-arb 540.0 0.0 -0.0
Ricky Horton↔ STL 29 arb 23-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Jeff Fischer 25 2-0.0
Mike Sharperson 27 pre-arb 27-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Mike Munoz 23 3-0.1
Mariano Duncan↔ CIN 26 arb 49-0.1 0.1 -0.1
Tracy Woodson 26 4-0.1
Jose Vizcaino 21 7-0.2
Billy Bean↔ DET 25 pre-arb 51-0.5 0.1 -0.2
Mickey Hatcher 34 FA-elig 94-0.7 0.5 -0.7
John Shelby 31 FA-elig 108-1.8 0.6 -1.2

Key additions (new vs 1988)

PlayerfWAR
Willie Randolph3.9
Eddie Murray3.1
Mike Morgan2.3
John Wetteland1.7
Darrin Fletcher0.3
Kal Daniels0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 1988)

Player1988 fWAR
Steve Sax2.2
Pedro Guerrero1.1
Brian Holton0.8
Don Sutton0.4
Ken Howell0.3
Danny Heep0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

1989 payroll
$20.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 1989, 1989–1995. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (19)

PlayerAgeSvc1989199019911992199319941995
Orel Hershiser306.000$2.8M$2.0M$3.2M$4.3M$4.3M$3.3MFREE AGENT
Eddie Murray3312.000$2.3M$2.5M$2.6MFREE AGENT
Fernando Valenzuela289.000$1.9M$2.0MFREE AGENT
Kirk Gibson3210.000$1.3M$1.3MFREE AGENT
John Tudor3510.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Mike Scioscia309.000$1.1M$1.2M$2.2M$2.2MFREE AGENT
Mike Marshall298.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Alfredo Griffin3113.000$1.0M$1.0M$900kFREE AGENT
Mike Davis309.000$988kFREE AGENT
Jay Howell339.000$925k$1.0M$1.1M$2.6MFREE AGENT
Alejandro Pena308.000$875kFREE AGENT
Willie Randolph3414.000$875k$684kFREE AGENT
John Shelby318.000$550k$379kFREE AGENT
Mickey Hatcher3410.000$450k$450kFREE AGENT
Dave Anderson286.000$420kFREE AGENT$350k
Rick Dempsey3920.000$420k$500kFREE AGENT
Tim Leary308.000$386kFREE AGENT
Mike Morgan2911.000$375k$650k$650kFREE AGENT
Ray Searage348.000$141k$342kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (6)

PlayerAgeSvc1989199019911992199319941995
Franklin Stubbs285.000$345kFREE AGENT
Jeff Hamilton253.000$150kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mariano Duncan264.000$104kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Gonzalez244.000$90kARB 3FREE AGENT
Kal Daniels253.000$65kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ricky Horton295.000$46kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (15)

PlayerAgeSvc1989199019911992199319941995
Tim Belcher272.000$225kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Crews282.000$130kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Sharperson272.000$90kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ramon Martinez211.000$85kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Gwynn242.000$80kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Wetteland220.000$68kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Billy Bean252.000$60kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lenny Harris241.000$33kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Fischer25
Darrin Fletcher220.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Hartley270.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Huff250.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Munoz230.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Vizcaino210.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tracy Woodson262.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Dodgers 1989; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3