BAL⇄LAD

BALBAL Roland Hemond net +$8.8M net +3.5

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $38M expected surplus · +$78.4M realized received 0.0 ± 5 expected · 11.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 1989 odds 9% → 9% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike DevereauxOF·26y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $38M exp surplusrealized +$78.4M 0.0± 5 exp WARrealized 11.7

Prior

#116 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.3/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

-0.27/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

LADLAD Fred Claire net −$8.8M net -3.5

received +$13.6M+$13.6M ± $29M expected surplus · +$69.6M realized received 3.6 ± 4 expected · 8.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 1989 odds 14% → 14% (+0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike MorganP·29y·R/R

+$13.7M+$13.7M± $29M exp surplusrealized +$69.6M 3.6± 4 exp WARrealized 8.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.9/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

1.24/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.