TEX⇄HOU

TEXTEX Jon Daniels net −$2.4M net +0.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $4M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.9 ± 0 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2009 odds 15% → 15% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Iván RodríguezC·37y·R/R

+$2.6M+$2.6M± $4M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.9± 0 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.4/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

1.70/yr blended

Horizon

0.6 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

HOUHOU Ed Wade net +$2.4M net -0.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $25M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.5 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2009 odds 2% → 2% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt NevarezP·22y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#309 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jose Vallejo

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $7M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.