RRosternomics
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Guardians CLE

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President of baseball ops: Chris Antonetti · GM: Mike Chernoff

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 6 in this regime · payroll 0.52× league · TAB +3.5
+3.5TAB — talent above budget14th/30
+14.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)2nd/30
3.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars25th/30
-4.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag12th/30
29%dead money %17th/30
0.543win %10th/30
29.7roster fWAR22nd/30
+35surplus $M (value vs cost)5th/30
$80Mpayroll $M24th/30

2025: made playoffs · 88–74. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFAngel Martínez 114GLane Thomas 38GNolan Jones 35G
LFSteven Kwan 152GNolan Jones 13GDaniel Schneemann 5G
RFNolan Jones 101GJhonkensy Noel 60GCJ Kayfus 29G
SSGabriel Arias 106GBrayan Rocchio 72GDaniel Schneemann 11G
2BDaniel Schneemann 74GBrayan Rocchio 50GAngel Martínez 37G
3BJosé Ramírez 134GDaniel Schneemann 27GWill Wilson 15G
1BKyle Manzardo 56GCJ Kayfus 17GJhonkensy Noel 9G
STARTERSTanner Bibee 1.9WARLogan Allen 1.7WARJoey Cantillo 1.5WARGavin Williams 1.4WARParker Messick 1.0WAR
CBo Naylor 119GAustin Hedges 67GDom Nuñez 2G
DHKyle Manzardo 81GDavid Fry 43GJosé Ramírez 26G
BULLPEN★ Emmanuel Clase 24svHunter Gaddis 35hCade Smith 19hTim Herrin 15hMatt Festa 12hErik Sabrowski 12hJakob Junis 6hCarlos Hernández 1h
CBo Naylor 119 · Austin Hedges 67 · Dom Nuñez 2
1BKyle Manzardo 56 · CJ Kayfus 17 · Jhonkensy Noel 9
2BDaniel Schneemann 74 · Brayan Rocchio 50 · Angel Martínez 37
3BJosé Ramírez 134 · Daniel Schneemann 27 · Will Wilson 15
SSGabriel Arias 106 · Brayan Rocchio 72 · Daniel Schneemann 11
LFSteven Kwan 152 · Nolan Jones 13 · Daniel Schneemann 5
CFAngel Martínez 114 · Lane Thomas 38 · Nolan Jones 35
RFNolan Jones 101 · Jhonkensy Noel 60 · CJ Kayfus 29
DHKyle Manzardo 81 · David Fry 43 · José Ramírez 26
SPTanner Bibee 1.9 · Logan Allen 1.7 · Joey Cantillo 1.5 · Gavin Williams 1.4 · Parker Messick 1.0
BP★ Emmanuel Clase 24 · Hunter Gaddis 35 · Cade Smith 19 · Tim Herrin 15 · Matt Festa 12 · Erik Sabrowski 12 · Jakob Junis 6 · Carlos Hernández 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2025 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
José Ramírez 32 FA-elig 1586.3 19.3 +5.7
Steven Kwan 27 arb 1563.2 4.2 +8.4
Cade Smith 26 pre-arb 762.7 0.8 +10.0
Tanner Bibee 26 pre-arb 311.9 3.4 +4.0
Logan Allen 26 pre-arb 301.7 0.8 +6.0
Joey Cantillo 25 pre-arb 341.5 0.5 +5.4
Bo Naylor 25 pre-arb 1231.5 0.8 +5.1
Gavin Williams 25 pre-arb 311.4 0.8 +4.9
Daniel Schneemann 28 pre-arb 1311.3 0.8 +4.5
Austin Hedges 32 FA-elig 701.2 4.0 +0.8
Kyle Manzardo 24 pre-arb 1421.2 0.8 +3.9
Emmanuel Clase 27 arb 481.1 4.9 -0.6
Gabriel Arias 25 pre-arb 1291.1 0.8 +3.5
Parker Messick 24 – 71.0 0.2 +3.8
Luis Ortiz 26 pre-arb 160.9 0.8 +2.9
Hunter Gaddis 27 pre-arb 730.8 0.8 +2.6
Matt Festa 32 pre-arb 630.8 0.6 +2.6
Slade Cecconi 26 pre-arb 230.7 0.8 +2.1
Kolby Allard 27 arb 330.7 0.8 +2.0
Jakob Junis 32 – 570.6 – –
Carlos Santana↔ CHC 39 – 1160.5 11.1 -9.0
Brayan Rocchio 24 pre-arb 1150.4 0.6 +1.0
Ben Lively 33 pre-arb 90.4 2.2 -0.8
Erik Sabrowski 27 pre-arb 330.3 0.8 +0.5
Nic Enright 28 – 270.2 0.7 +0.2
CJ Kayfus 23 – 440.2 0.2 +0.4
Paul Sewald↔ DET 35 – 180.1 3.4 -2.9
Zak Kent 27 – 120.1 0.5 -0.0
Petey Halpin 23 – 60.1 0.0 +0.3
George Valera 24 – 160.1 0.1 +0.2
Carlos Hernández↔ DET 28 arb 50.0 0.1 +0.1
Cody Bolton 27 – 10.0 0.1 +0.0
Doug Nikhazy 25 – 20.0 0.0 +0.0
Dom Nuñez 30 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Andrew Walters 24 pre-arb 2-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Will Brennan 27 pre-arb 6-0.1 0.6 -1.0
Triston McKenzie 27 arb 4-0.1 1.9 -2.4
Angel Martínez 23 pre-arb 139-0.1 0.7 -1.3
Johnathan Rodríguez 25 pre-arb 31-0.4 0.3 -2.0
Nolan Jones 27 pre-arb 136-0.4 0.8 -2.5
Tim Herrin 28 pre-arb 54-0.4 0.6 -2.4
Will Wilson 26 – 34-0.5 0.3 -2.3
Lane Thomas 29 arb 39-0.5 7.8 -9.9
David Fry 29 pre-arb 66-0.6 0.8 -3.1
Jhonkensy Noel 23 pre-arb 69-1.1 0.4 -4.6

Key additions (new vs 2024)

PlayerfWAR
Parker Messick1.0
Luis Ortiz0.9
Matt Festa0.8
Slade Cecconi0.7
Kolby Allard0.7
Jakob Junis0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2024)

Player2024 fWAR
Andrés Giménez2.7
Josh Naylor2.3
Matthew Boyd0.9
Shane Bieber0.8
Tyler Freeman0.4
Eli Morgan0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2025 payroll
$80.2M
2026 guaranteed
$10.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 2025, 2025–2031. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2025; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
José Ramírez3210.074$19.3MFREE AGENT
Carlos Santana3914.115$11.1MFREE AGENT
Emmanuel Clase274.059$4.9M$6.4M$10.0MCLUB$10.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Austin Hedges328.166$4.0MFREE AGENT
Tanner Bibee262.000$3.4M$4.4M$7.4M$10.4M$21.4M$21.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Paul Sewald356.072$3.4MFREE AGENT
Jakob Junis328.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (5)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Lane Thomas295.014$7.8MFREE AGENT
Steven Kwan273.000$4.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Triston McKenzie273.168$1.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kolby Allard274.021$823kARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Hernández283.099$70kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (33)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Ben Lively332.133$2.2MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bo Naylor251.113$790kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cade Smith261.000$785kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Ortiz261.121$783kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Fry291.154$782kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gavin Williams251.103$780kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Gaddis271.073$779kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Allen261.093$777kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gabriel Arias251.124$770kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nolan Jones272.007$770kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Schneemann280.120$766kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Slade Cecconi260.155$765kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erik Sabrowski270.033$765kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Manzardo240.073$763kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Angel Martínez230.118$727kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nic Enright282.168$686kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Herrin281.077$639kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Festa322.003$613kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Brennan272.015$572kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brayan Rocchio241.037$564kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Cantillo250.031$537kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Walters240.018$507kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zak Kent271.037$453kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jhonkensy Noel230.096$433kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Wilson260.000$302kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Johnathan Rodríguez250.024$299kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
CJ Kayfus230.000$237kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Parker Messick240.000$163kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
George Valera240.000$114kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Bolton271.076$60kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Petey Halpin230.000$37kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dom Nuñez301.098$25kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Doug Nikhazy250.000$16kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Guardians 2025; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.