TOR⇄CLE

TORTOR Ross Atkins net −$16.8M net +0.4

received +$31.2M+$23.2M ± $20M expected surplus · −$16.8M realized received 5.0 ± 2 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2025 odds 64% → 65% (+1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Shane BieberP·30y·R/R

+$30.8M+$22.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$16.8M 5.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.7/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

2.56/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE Chris Antonetti net +$16.8M net -0.4

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2025 odds 6% → 5% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Khal StephenP·22y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#59 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.