CLE⇄COL

CLECLE Chris Antonetti net +$8.8M net +1.3

received +$17.6M+$17.6M ± $36M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 3.4 ± 4 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2025 odds 5% → 5% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Nolan JonesOF·27y·L/R

+$17.8M+$17.8M± $36M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 3.4± 4 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.85/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

COLCOL Bill Schmidt net −$8.8M net -1.3

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $22M expected surplus · −$12.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · -1.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2025 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tyler FreemanOF·26y·R/R

+$5.7M+$5.7M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$12.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized -1.8

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.32/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.