CLE⇄NYY

CLECLE Mark Shapiro net +$47.2M net +6.6

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · +$47.2M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 6.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2010 odds 1% → 1% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Zach McAllisterP·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$47.2M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 6.8

Prior

#104 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net −$47.2M net -6.6

received +$9.6M+$7.2M ± $14M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.7 ± 2 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2010 odds 81% → 82% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Austin KearnsOF·30y·R/R

+$9.9M+$7.5M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.7± 2 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.29/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.8/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

1.20/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.